Daily Global gold ,metal futures prices mechanism simulation by Nobel jdea innovation breakthrough :forecasts: two master hands controling gold, metal fund performance:

中文
Proactive Structural COMEX, CBOT Gold, Metals Future Prices Mechanism Simulation / 2009 Forecast OSA :US/ China/Global Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Oil price , Dollar, Inflation and Economic Stimulus impact on Daily Global Gold and Metals Futures Prices Mechanism and Gold Fund Performance

Gold price follow oil price rebound to 1000-1050 in 2 Q-3 Q 2009, as oil price rebound from 50- 75 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, manufacturing rebound to clunker program and and housing rebound to first time home buyer tax credit in Sept. and gold price will challenge 1100 - 1250 as oil price soared to 80 by the end of 2009 and early 2010, as US job creation go into full steam However, weakness in business and consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, deflationary pressure remain ,   falling PPI in China, US, in 2009 will depress any oil and gold price rally. even weakness in dollar will not be sufficient to push oil price above 80, gold price above 1250 in 2009 final quarter. Gold prices have to test1000-1100 correction due to deflationary pressure in slow recession recovery Speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 50, consumer and business sending improved by 170 billion tax rebate check, and increased summer gasoline, jet fuel oil demand, US dollar plunge from 1.32 euro to 1.45, 98- to 94 Yen, 1.55 to 1.65 pound due to 1.8 trillion budget deficit , amount to 70 % of GDP, driving oil price to 56 in May, challenge 60- 78 during May 31- June, holiday peak demand. Driving Alumina price to 0.79, copper price rebound to 225- 250 gold price to 948-990, silver price to 14- 16.00
Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side Oil Price Simulation : Repeating last April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving season, and fuel oil demand from China economic stimulus package push oil to 60- 72 , gasoline price 190- 225, fuel oil to 180- 200 new high 2009 peaking out in June-July, oil, drop to 55- 65 , Gasoline to 160- 200 , fuel oil to 150- 180 after July summer demand, peaking out
Gold and metal prices followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar, inflation rate soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July   2008 rebound,   making new high challenge 950- 1000 . Gold price bubble burst , plunged to 700 , Dec. 2008 as economic entering recession , inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32  ,dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring jobless rate and plunging housing prices .
Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side Oil Price Simulation : Accurately predicted Repeating last April tax rebate resulted consumer demand for gasoline , US dollar weakness as US entering traveling holiday, summer vacation peak driving season, and fuel oil demand from China, US economic stimulus package. Oil price stay above 60 near memorial day, Improved May Jobless   to 345000 and jobless claim to 601000, cut in May foreclosure rate and retail sale gain boost July oil, fuel, and gasoline futures and cash price peaking out 65 -78 in   July heading back to 60-65 after July , repeating last year tax rebate peaking out at 146 in July 2008 , drag by global deep economic recession, with plunging consumer, business demand, strong dollar , back to 50 before summer demand ends.
(demand side prices mechanism forecasts) OSA pioneer Dr Warren Huang predicted Feb. March 2009 in Hong Kong , Pudong investment summit forum on Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Oil Price Simulation : US tax rebate in 2009 and China economic stimulus package increased holiday travel season gasoline to 250,, fuel oil price to 210 demand in manufacturing as ISM PMI index rebound from 33 to 42 ( China from 36 to 53), weak dollar will lead to gold price follow oil price challenge 1000, copper challenge 250, aluminum challenge 0.79, silver to 16 , natural gas challenge 5- 6 this summer and give up its gain due to the end of China strategic reserve purchase for economic stimulus plan in April 2009. and give up all its summer gain after July   Global commodities, metal,( copper, zinc, aluminum oil, suffering by global deep recession, plunging consumer, business demand, facing bubble burst with oil price plunged to 50 with   rebound in the final quarter supported by weak dollar and US/China economic stimulus job creation plan
by OSA Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2008-2009

Proactive Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast months ahead last 20 years US/global Housing mortgage default, Credit, Financial Crisis , Oil, Commodities, Metal Asset Price Bubble Burst Operations Simulation Analysis , The Causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning , and consequences through Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession, Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism and Systemic Instability Basel II credit, Market, Operational Risks Early Warning

Strategic PGFCR : Proactive Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, metals, oil, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms

Do not miss Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra short strategy for
China Metal, oil, commodity, Forex Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging 2009 Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009      by   EUROMONEY
            Trillion Dollar Recession Risks Hedging 2009 Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009   program           China
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis, Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus Impact on Economy, Capital Markets    Forecast by Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset, Derivatives Allocation Strategy
              by Dr. Warren Huang  website: www.osawh.com Hyatt Regency, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity, Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation by
World Renown Proactive Structural Asset Pricing pioneer Dr. Warren Huang
Post- Conference Master Class Strategic Multi-class Asset Allocation Workshop, Terrapinn                  Chinese
   Proactive Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and China/Global Fund World, Asset Allocation 2008,- 2009
                  by Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management      Proactive Recession Strategy
                                            Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar 4- 6, 2008
                                  Reservation   for your in house workshop   osawhh@sina.com/ wh3928@yahoo.com
risk management panelist and   planned full day master class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn China Fund World 2008 conference, offer Proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on Energy, Commodity, multi-calss assets long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy to 150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII executives

Gold and metal prices followed soaring oil prices ( 30 % of production cost) , weak dollar, inflation rate soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July   2008 rebound,   making new high challenge 950- 1000 . Gold price bubble burst , plunged to 700 , Dec. 2008 as economic entering recession , inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32  . As dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring jobless rate and plunging housing prices , speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 70, Driving gold price to 1000 in summer 2009
Gold price   retest 800- 900 and 700 -800 , oil price retest 32 as US and global facing deep recession resulted deflation , and Dow Jones plunged to below 7000 in 1 Q 2009
Gold price will follow oil price rebound to 1000 in 2 Q , as oil price rebound from 50-70 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, and gold price will challenge 980 as oil price soared to 70 by the end of 2009, as US job creation go into full steam

Silver prices followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar, inflation rate soared to 8.7 % , silver usage in travel ( consumer spending) due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July   2008 rebound,   making new high challenge 22.00 . Silver price bubble burst , plunged to 9.00   Dec. 2008 as economic entering recession , consumer spending plunge and and inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32  ,dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring jobless rate and plunging housing prices .r However, speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 70 Driving silver price to 15. It will retest 12as , oil price retest50 as US and global facing deep recession resulted deflation , and Dow Jones plunged to below 7000 in 1 Q 2009
Silver price will follow oil price rebound to 16 in 2 Q , as oil price rebound from 50- 70as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, and silver price will challenge 16 as oil price soared to 70 by the end of 2009, as US job creation go into full steam

Platinum prices followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar,   and auto industry demand , as inflation soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July   2008 rebound,   making new high challenge 2200. Platinum price bubble burst , plunged to 800 , Dec. 2008 as economic entering recession Big 3 auto facing bankruptcy, inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32  ,As dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring jobless rate and plunging housing prices , speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 70, and weak dollar Driving platinum price to1250
platinum price will retest 800, oil price retest 32 as US and global facing deep recession resulted deflation , and Dow Jones plunged to below 7000 in 1 Q 2009
price will follow oil price rebound to 1000 in 2 Q , as oil price rebound from 50- 60 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, and platinum price will challenge 1300 as oil price soared to 70 by the end of 2009, as US job creation go into full steam

Heavy metals : Copper
Copper prices followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar, soaring housing, electronic, electric demand, inflation rate soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July   2008 rebound,   making new high challenge 400 . Copper price bubble burst , plunged to 120 , Dec. 2008 as continued housing construction plunge to new low, housing price plunge 17 % economic entering recession drag IT industry demand, inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32  ,dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring jobless rate and plunging housing prices .   However, speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 50, Driving copper price 150
Copper price retest 100- 120, follow oil price retest 32 as US and global facing deep housing market slump and recession resulted deflation , and Dow Jones plunged to below 7000 in 1 Q 2009
Copper price will follow oil price rebound to 245 in 2 Q , as oil price rebound from 50- 60 to 70 as China China completed its reserve procurement for 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, and copper price will challenge 250 as oil price soared to 70 summer and by the end of 2009, as US housing markets and IT, electrical industry recovery , job creation go into full steam

Aluminum prices followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar, soaring housing, auto, aerospace demand, inflation rate soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July   2008 rebound,   making new high challenge 1.50 . Aluminum price bubble burst , plunged to 0.62 , Dec. 2008 as continued housing construction, aerospace slowdown plunge to new low, housing price plunge 17 % economic entering recession drag demand, inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32. As dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring jobless rate and plunging housing prices , speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 50, Driving aluminum price to 0.66
Aluminum price will retest 0.55- 0.61, oil price retest 32 as US and global facing deep housing market slump and recession resulted deflation , and Dow Jones plunged to below 7000 in 1 Q 2009
Aluminum price will follow oil price rebound and weakening dollar to 0.79   in 2 Q , as oil price rebound from 50- 60 to 70 in summer as China completed its reserve procurement for 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, and price will challenge0.72 as oil price soared to 70 by the end of 2009, as US housing markets and auto, aerospace industry recovery , job creation go into full steam

by OSA Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2008-2009

Proactive Structural Strategic Solution: Forecast months ahead last 20 years US/global Housing mortgage default, Credit, Financial Crisis , Oil, Commodities, Metal Asset Price Bubble Burst Operations Simulation Analysis , The Causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning , and consequences through Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on Economic Recession, Real Time Financial Market Prices Mechanism and Systemic Instability Basel II credit, Market, Operational Risks Early Warning

Speculation over OBAMA economic stimulus, lead to oil price rebound to 50, consumer and business sending improved by 170 billion tax rebate check, and increased summer gasoline, jet fuel oil demand, US dollar plunge from 1.32 euro to 1.45, 98- to 94 Yen, 1.55 to 1.65 pound due to 1.8 trillion budget deficit , amount to 70 % of GDP, driving oil price to 56 in May, challenge 60- 70 during May 31- July 4, holiday peak demand. Driving Alumina price to 0.79, copper price rebound to 225- 250 gold price to 948-1000 , silver price to 14- 16.00
Gold and metal prices followed soaring oil prices, weak dollar, inflation rate soared to 8.7 % due to rate cuts, stimulus in April, July 2008 rebound, making new high challenge 950- 1000 . Gold price bubble burst , plunged to 700 , Dec. 2008 as economic entering recession , inflation plunged to 1.2 %, oil price plunged from 147 to 32 ,dollar plunged against Yen from 98 to 85 as US banking widening loan loss entering second stage financial crisis due to prolonged deep recession, soaring jobless rate and plunging housing prices .r
Gold price retest 700 -800 , oil price retest 32 as US and global facing deep recession resulted deflation , and Dow Jones plunged to below 6500 in 1 Q 2009
Gold price will follow oil price rebound to 1000 in 2 Q , as oil price rebound from 50- 70 as China 567 billion economic stimulus infrastructure project go into full steam and US 850 billion economic stimulus job creation project take shape, and gold price will challenge 1000 as oil price soared to 70 by the end of 2009, as US job creation go into full steam

by OSA Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2008-2009

Comment by Warren Huang , Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics Blog- October 17, 2008 at 10:05 pm

US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 43 and jobless rate to 6.1 % and Dow Jones plunged 40 % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan
The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil, commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 60，Gas oil from1300 to 650 , corn from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy enter deep recession by year end, despite US 700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50 % and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 % , Dow Jones test 7000- 8000 NASDAQ PLUNGE testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1800 through early 2009 until economy softlanding
China is suffering from housing market overheating, with 300 % gain in housing prices still up 3.5 % , FIXED investment , export growth and consumer spending still up 26 %, first 9 month GDP still up 9.9 %, CPI up 7 % despite China peoples Bank 6 rate hikes, 16 bank deposit rat hike to 17.5 %. China need to further cut its M2 money supply growth from 15 % to 12 % next year to achieve housing price cut of 30 %, CPI to 4 %, GDP to 8 % to achieve soft landing and start of bull market stock rally.

US/China 2008 Housing, Oil, Commodities, Equities Price Bubbles Overheating, and bubble burst, inflation, Currency Trilemma OSA:
5 -Day Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold, Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
impact on Stocks Prices, Futures, Derivatives Prices Market Forces Mechanism Simulation, Forecast, ETF Risks Hedging , Investment Strategy
5 Day CEO , CFO, traders, fund managers Proactive Structural Asset Pricing, Allocation Long-Short Strategy in-house Workshop

Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market correction, dollar to new low and oil above 110 gold challenge 1000,, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1600- 1800 till 2009

Do not miss this proactive structural price mechanism based strategic financial modeling and risks valuation, simulation for investment , trillion dollar recession hedging strategy workshops series by OSA proactive solution pioneer Dr.Warren Huang
Millions of global /China top fund managers and investment management teams bring their management/s operating problems into our strategic fund allocation and wealth management workshops. take home billion dollar proactive structural solution, avoided trillion dollar housing, stock market loss due betting on the wrong side of interest rates and bull/bear market trend, ready to implement
==============================================================================================
==============================================================================================
Operations Simulation Forecast for daily US dollar, Gold futures market prices:

please visit www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/metal.html for regular price forecast update and strategic investment workshops
by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang copyright 2006 pioneering work of two master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators controlling, forecasts last 20 years global macro economy, daily currency, oil, commodity inflation impact on daily global gold, metals futures, derivatives prices, He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals

As US Fed and global central banks excessive rate cuts, tax cuts, money supply growth soared 8 %, excessive domestic consumer, business demand drives import and trade deficit to 55 billion led to dollar plunged 50 % vs EURO ( from 0.83 to 1.35), China money supply growth soared 24 %, resulted excessive demand for housing and auto industry asset bubbles and cold winter in 2003 lead to oil inventory at 29 year low, pushed gasoline and heating oil prices over 150 c/gal ,and continue into 2005 summer, year end, CPI up form 1 % to 4.2 %, wholesale prices up 5 % in despite Greenspan 14 rate hikes, oil price soared to 69 in Oct. 2005, as US money supply growth growth soared to 8 % in Feb, 2006 pushed , gold prices soared to 600, metals prices soared to 23 year high, CRB soared to 345. US hurricanes and Russian Yukos interrupted oil production on top of soaring global demand, oil and gold prices will stay firm into the winter peak demand, and making new high into the summer Dr. Huang accurately predicted to China oil market conference in Beijing Nov. 2005 that NYMEX will rebound from 55 and break 60 to 64 before Xmas and to 68 in January,, gasoline testing 160- 230, heating oil retest 200, natural gas rebound again in January as entering global peak winter demand , heating, followed by summer driving demand as US facing more rate hikes,
Structural Dynamic Simulation of Macroeconomic Inflation, Global Oil, Commodities, Currency impact on Gold, Metals Futures Prices , Demand Market Forces Mechanism:

Dr. Huang told thousands global currency traders on Euro-events Asia/China finance capital markets conferences in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin, Nov. 2003 In tracking last 20 years global currency markets daily trading,:
Global currency are not controlled, influenced by any country president, central bank intervention, treasury, G-7, emerging markets finance ministers meeting for strong currency policy. They are controlled by our currency markets forces modeling of two master hands: interest rates and trade data, integrating into market technical analysis, psychology covering last 20 years 100 countries daily currency trading, including normal and all the currency crisis since 1980 !
So, don't wasting your time follow your currency market analysts, speculating, chasing the daily market news, resulted trillion dollar loss

US dollar currency = F (US trade, current account deficit, other country trade surplus( deficit), interest rate spread)
US CPI = F ( US consumer spending, Oil prices, Dollar currency )
Oil future price = ( US dollar currency, heating oil future, gasoline future price )
Gold, Metals Futures Prices = F ( Nymex Oil , Currency , US CPI Inflation )

Dr. Huang pioneered this relationship since 1980, tracking forecasts daily oil prices from 10 to 55, millions global multinational oils, OPEC visited www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm for daily oil prices forecasts accurately predicted Feb 23, 2005 in Beijing conference that oil price rebounded from 49 to 55 in March due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.333 Euro ., gold price retest for 445 new high .Currency from 80 to 255, Yen, 0.84- 1.36 Euro , millions global central banks, banking finance, importer/exporters visit www.osawh.com/currency.html for daily 40 global currency forecasts accurately predicted Oct. 2004   weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high and visit www.osawh.com/cermerf.html .US inflation from 1.0 to 13.6, impact on gold futures from 150 to 800. millions global central banks, banking finance visited www.osawh.com/goldf.html for daily global metal, gold futures, fund performance forecasts He wrote thousands articles 100 million copies on US, China, Taiwan Financial Times, Economic, Commercial Times, Industrial Economics, World Journal investment journals tracking last 20 years daily results, covering various energy, currency, asset bubble burst crisis.
He then has thousands structural dynamic simulators tracking forecasts oil, currency and US CPI data for reliable gold futures prices forecasts, all come out of his two master hands controlling global economic indicators, macro financial, industrial and trade economics simulation, integration.
Detail simulation results can be found on his website www.osawh.com , which visited by millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate procurement managers, investors since 1998.
He offered thousands lectures to US, China. Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio economic program 30 million institutional, private investors and hundreds banking, securities companies CEO, CFO, fund managers since 1985.
He has been invited to speak to 24 US, ECB, China, Asian Pacific central bank governors, financial risk management conferences since 1998.

partial lists of table tracking its recent dynamic forecasts inter-relationships
time                  1999      2000   2001     2002    2003     2004     2004     2004   2005 2006 2007 2008
US       CPI         2.2        3.2       1.5       1.0       1.4       2.0       2.5        3.4    4.6        4.5     2.0      5.5
China CPI        -1.0        0.1       1.0       1.4       1.5       3.2      4.3         5.2    1.6         4.0   5.0      7.0
Euro                   1.0        0.88     0.83      0.9      1.2       1.29    1.19       1.35 1.17    1.29    1.55    1.36
Nymex oil          22         30        22        29        40       36        36         51      65        80      100 60 90
Gold futures       256       320      256      330      390      430      370       455    532    750   990    660- 850
Platinum            350       425      420      580      700      950      770       875    1009 1300 1500   1000
Silver                 5.25      5.00     4,25     5.20     4.50     8.00     5.66      7.77    9.6   1420    1700 1080
Copper               80        80        60        78       80        140      115       150     200     390    400     200-220

Dr. Huang accurately predicted at Singapore Euro-event Asian Finance, capital market conference, Nov.5. 2003, China finance, capital market conference by Shanghai, Nov. 25 , 2003 on Monetary policy impact on Asian and China economic outlook, asset prices that US rate hike by May 2004, and again to Silicon Valley Finance Radio and North American Investors investment seminar in San Francisco Bay Area May 7, 8, 15, 2004 that US dollar plunge and stabilize ,oil prices traded 50-57, gold price rebound for new high traded 430- 479, and accurately predicted recently oil price rebounded from 40 to 49 and retest 56 due to cold winter weather, weak dollar plunged to 1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high.
=== Singapore Asia Finance, Capital Market Summit Conference/in-house workshops ====
Dr. Huang will speak to Singapore Euro-Events Asian Finance and Capital Market SUMMIT conference Nov.5 three hundred Asian government regulation, , banking, finance , corporate CEO, CFO, executives on Monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on Asian economy and capital market asset prices, bubble, simulation, risk management http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt
Other Asian countries by reservation osawhh@citiz.net   or wh3928@yahoo.com

Over thousands of artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms Operations Simulations Analysis experts system's have been developed simulate, tracking last 25 years daily global oils, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, gold, silver, feedgrain commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices , hedging risks and implemented for US, Asian Pacific, European financial markets, tracking, simulate daily US Fed and global central bankers monetary policy, interest rates, currency, Asian financial crisis and it's impact on global global commodity, industrial raw materials, financial futures, options prices simulation, invest ment, risk management for helping 20 millions global corporate CEO, finance, import/ export, currency and equities and related mutual fund trading, procurement, marketing managers, investors to take advantage of invest ment opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis
Monetary Policy, Global Oils, Currency, Inflation impact on Gold Futures Prices and Risks Simulations,
The risks in uncertainties in gold prices   speculations due to inflation/deflation, currency, oil prices and gold   demand and prices slump in global gold futures prices can be simulated to it's current and future mining cost, monetary policy impact on gold demand, inventory, ( feedstock, supply mining   costs and dollar exchange rates in the export countries. numerous proprietary prices simulation forecasts models have been developed, implemented for 5 millions Taiwan, US, EURO, corporate executives, investors. Huang spending half time in Taiwan, China on TV, radio programs since 1980 applying to 100,000 importer/exporter members weekly global currency tracking and import/export pricing strategy and metals, feed grains, oils, petrochemical, fibers, plastics, paper, lecturing 20 millions China financial and commodity futures prices, corporate procurement, marketing, sales managers, investors on TV radio programs.

B China, NYMEX and global Energy Futures Upstream/Downstream prices simulation
Energy (crude oils, gas oils, fuel oil, gasoline, natural gas, propane) future prices have been relation to their end use seasonal demand, inventory (which closely related to monetary policy), and production costs, OPEC supply and US dollar exchange rate ,
Dr Huang accurately predicted in 2000, Crude oils will drop to 29 after US SPR release 30 million barrel oil in. Nov. but will rebound to 35 before Nov. as snow in US midwest.
Mid-east tension, speculation of oil to 37, heating oil to all time high 115, gasoline to 99 will be short life corn, cotton, copper prices follow oil prices up 20 % ,
US recession and 911 in 2001 drag demand and price for oil to 16.5 .and rebound to 29 in 2002 April due to strong US consumer demand for gasoline from 52 to 82

Global Crude oil future prices = (US consumer demand, currency exchange rate, US gasoline price, US fuel price )

This relationship explain recent dollar weakness( Yen up to 112, Rupiah to 7000) and weak consumer gasoline and heating oil demand in Sept and fuel inventory buildup drag gasoline and heating oil prices from 100 to 65- 75 resulted crude oil plunge to 25-
However, Crude oil prices will rebound in late Nov as cold winter push heating oil prices up to 75- 85 and crude oil prices back to 26- 31
Fuel oil, gas oil, natural gas, gasoline future prices = F ( crude oil prices, product seasonal demand( monetary policy), inflation) both dip below 50 from 100 as oil price down to 17
The financial derivatives, options prices, and Risk Hedging simulation
Daily Currency and Interest futures simulation

China and CBOT Metals future prices simulation

Gold future prices = F( production costs, end uses demand (China/US inflation), US dollar exchange rate)

Gold futures prices and Gold fund performance, hedging risks OSA

Gold is used mostly for decoration, hedging against inflation, China, a major gold consuming country facing housing market overheated bubble, due to excessive money supply growth to 20 %, economy getting out of deflation (of -3.6 in 1999, gold prices made 256 low ) and US dollar plunged from 129 to 105 Yen, 0.83 to 1.29 Euro pushed gold price from 256 to current 426

US/China inflation outlook: US inflation at 1.5 % China at 3.5 %, both facing strong consumer demand and overheating housing bubbles and manufacturing near deflation
US dollar outlook: US dollar slide 105 Yen, and 1.29 EURO due to soaring trade deficit at 43 billion. However weak dollar will boost export, stability trade deficit below 40

As China overheated economy and US recover, will push inflation, oil prices higher, push gold , metal, commodity price higher, however will be drag by dollar rebound due to US falling trade deficit, due to China 10 billion purchasing US airplanes, auto, chips, cotton, soybean and future interest rate hikes continue into summer 2006

Precious Metal Future
Silver is used for decoration and mostly for photography, Major user US, China soaring consumer spending, summer travel , excessive money supply, consumer demand supported silver prices above 1450
Platinum is used for decoration and mostly for automobile catalytic converter, benefited by strong global and US consumer auto demand, recent rebound to 110- 1250
Copper future prices simulation:
Copper bas been used mostly for electronic, IC, computers, appliances. It s future prices depend very on major downstream export demand, currency exchange rates)

Copper prices benefited by weak dollar and strong IC , China construction demand, rebound to 350- 400

This relation tracing accurately copper price peak at 140 in 1996, the peak demand in Asian and Japan, economy , dropped to 60 as result of Asian crisis late Yen and Won depreciation , Japan, Korea economy hit bottom, IC, computer prices plunge and major copper producer getting into trouble, triggered currency depreciation
It rebound as IC, computers, appliance sales pick up in Asian and US and weakness in US dollar.

Gold, metals mining sectors, demand, future prices, corporate earning, stock prices, and mutual fund performances
Higher gold prices improve gold mining profit margin, but dragged by higher mining energy costs ( account 30 %), fortunately heating oil stay flat.
Gold mining company and gold future fund enjoyed 50- 100 % return this years due to soaring gold prices (from256 to 600 )
visit www.kitco.com for daily gold , currency, oils futures prices
visit www.eagle-gold.com for daily gold , currency, oils futures prices, mining companies gold fund performance
visit http://tw.money.yahoo.com/fund/d/2813.html for top gold fund performance

Home Up