Global Strategic Management Proactive structural manufacturing value
chain optimization and Supply Chain cost minimization by top down proactive
structural simulation, forecast of Global Housing prices bubbles burst,
European Debt crisis, global recession recovery, exit strategy impact on
manufacturing, raw material, energy, asset pricing save billion dollar
supply chain costs and avoided trillion dollar
loss by OSA tracking, guidance, forecast the
emerging market trend of US Nymex, Brent crude oil, gas, gasoline, heating
oil , metals, commodities cash and future derivatives prices ,
raw materials suppliers competitive pricing,
take home billion dollar supply chain saving strategic solution ready to
implement
OSA
www.osawh.com
Dr.
OSA pioneer Dr Warren Huang accurately predicted
May 20, June 29 on Wall Street Journal Market beat blog 2008, that Oil price will challenge 145
on
July 4 th
and peaking out in July to plunge to 50- 70, 2008 and 30- 50 2009
Don't miss this
OSA Capitalized last 30
years Trillion Dollar Investment Opportunities, Risks Early Warning and
achieve billions dollar supply chain cost reduction by
proactive structural
Monetary, Economic Stimulus , Fiscal Bailout, Global credit, financial
Crisis, Recession OSA: Proactive Structural
Asset Prices Dynamic
Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of Asset Prices Mechanism and
Causes
billion dollar saving fighting plunging demand, prices and supply
chain costs and improved market share just through
your one year OSA operations improvement program without any equipment investment
Strategic Integrated Oil and Downstream, Commodity
, Chemicals Demand, Pricing Mechanism, Supply Chain
Cost Reduction Operations Optimization and TQM
to Maximize Oil and Gas/Downstream Profits Workshop
By Demand Side Real Time Global Oil Gas, Downstream
Commodity Markets Prices Mechanism Forecast for daily NYMEX, London, China Oil
and downstream Markets,
Tracking record
By Dr. Warren Huang, Founder, CEO, OSA, Location: Traders
Hotel, Singapore, Apr. 2001 for Exxon, Texaco, Shell, BP, Petronas, PAT SVP. and
otehr
in-house workshops
Beijin Kerry Center Hotel, Nov. 25-26, 2001 for Exxon-Mobil , Australia Oil, Guandong
gas, China national oil, Dev. bank of Singapore SVP , Samsung Petrochemicals
Jan 22, 2002, Taipei Howard Plaza Hotel for Chinese Petroleum investment,
planning managers
Kuala Lumpur, Sept 30-Oct. 1, 2002 for ASEAN central banks, banking, securities
traders, managers
Euro-events Singapore Nov. 5, Shanghai, Nov. 25, Beijing 27, 2003 for 1000 Asian,
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong QFII, traders, managers accurately predicted oil prices
soared to 37 in April, 2003, gasoline prices making new high and China oil
market strategy, Asian Business Forum, Beijin, Feb, Nov. 2005, predicted to
Phillips Petroleum, CEO, Mobil,, ARAMCO VP oil price soared to 80 2006,
2007 summer., and to China World Fund Summit, Terrrapinn, Pudong , Mar. 8
predicted Oil price doubled to 145,July , 2008, due to Fed rate cuts, and
tax rebate, US dollar depreciation.
and to Feb 24, 2009, Hong Kong, private equities fund,
financing, merger acquisition summit and March 8, 2009 Pudong Forex, China oil,
commodities derivatives that oil price summit rebound from 35 to 70 in
summer peak driving (May- July) , refining
product downstream products facing loss due to weak demand and falling prices recession,
despite tax rebate China/US stimulus. .
will be offering 4
day strategic financial risk management and supply demand cost reduction
workshop in Mumbai, Delhi Oct. 21-24 ,2009
book your in-house workshop
email
osawhh@sina.com /
wh3928@yahoo.com
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, implemented for fighting last 30 years
global financial, energy, crisis, recession trillion dollar investment risk
early warning and billion supply chain cost reduction. Accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
and Mar
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China warning to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that
US housing price slump
continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession
and US, global stock indices bear market 50-70
% % , Dow Jones test
6500, NASDAQ test 1250 and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 50 % correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %-
90 %, dollar making to new
low, oil price to 140 and gas to 14, commodity prices doubled, widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
,despite
Fed rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
1650 till summer 2008, ,capitalize on
the emerging bull, bear market trend
through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio
management, He recommended US mutual fund ( US oil fund follow
oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial, up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq
) UP 30 %. , and
recommended ETF: US natural gas up 100 % as natural gas
soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price
doubled from 70 to 149. and Oppenheimer Commodities up 90 %
as, corn, soybean price doubled
He predicted Continued US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 90- 95 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price will peak out
and bubble burst drop 50- 70 % in 2008 as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle soon.
Book your June- Aug Taipei, Hong
Kong, Shanghai
Proactive Structural European, Debt crisis,
global liquidity, exit strategy impact on
Asian equities, housing currency, commodities prices 2010 forecast workshops
( Dr. Huang will provide strategy for your selected country and
asset of your own
US trillion dollars bail out and
housing, auto stimulus lead to excessive
liquidity bubble, in stock markets
speculation and huge banking, financial
sectors profits, bonus( soared 65 %)
lead budget 14 trillion deficit debt
bubble and 4 Q GDP at 5.7 % , PMI at 56 are
inflationary inflation rate already soared
to 3 %. and prepare for crisis exit
strategy, tighting liquidity( remove
trillion dollar excessive liquidity) to
deflate the liquidity bubble before it
burst.
While debt bubble in Dubai, Greece,
Portugal, Spain, UK already facing bubble,
lead to EURO currency plunge from 1.45 to
1.20
China start economic stimulus exit strategy, driving 2 trillion
excess liquidity from stocks and real estate market to real economy ,with banking loan growth of 7 trillion in the
first half 2009, down to 3355 ,billion in July, 4000 billion in Aug. overheated excessive
liquidity facing micro control to cool off the asset prices bubbles in
housing and stock mark already leading to stock market up
100%
( up from 1660 to 3577) , despite 70 % of first half earning
facing decline and loss and only 30 % earning increase, most prices
already exceed 2007 6000 point peak level and PE of 65 approaching
2007 peak, and housing price bubble, Beijing housing
prices up 30 % in the first half 2009 , with Shanghai, Shenzhen,
Shenzhen housing prices reaching all time high (over 2007 peak level,
forced China Peoples Bank credit tightening driving excess liquidity (
50 % of 7 trillion bank loan stay in stock and housing market
speculation) from stocks and housing market into real economy
construction. in mid- Aug., 2009 leading to credit tightening in
second mortgage with first down payment raised to 40 % .China
Peoples Banks start exit strategy in Aug. removing excessive liquidity,
major banks already completed most of 2009 full year loan in the
first half. with little lending in the second half China A
shares start correction , plunged from 3466 to 2650 predicted by Dr.
Huang China blog in July 2009 . China money supply growth will be gradually
reduce from 28 % to 24 % in 2009 and 17 % in yearend 2010.
Beware of Oil, Gold
, commodity price bubble burst due to China housing price
bubble and inflation control , US and Asian exit strategy rate hike fighting
inflation lead to weakness in business and
consumer demand resulted slow recession recovery, while
complicated by excessive liquidity bubble resulted global sovereign debt
bubble burst crisis from Dubai, PIIGS (Greece,Spain, UK, Portugese ,
Ireland, Italy)) resulted commodity
prices bubble lead to inflationary pressure and credit tightening in exit
strategy.
Debt crisis in EURO area, strong US 4Q GDP of 5.7 %, will driving dollar to new high
to 1.25- 1.32 EURO, 1.45-1.52 pound drag gold from 1250 peak to 1060, oil from 86 to
69, are excessive given US 1.8 trillion budget deficit, and soaring consumer,
business debt will drag dollar lower and oil, gold price rebound summer 2010
2010 oil, gasoline, heating oil, Natural gas prices forecast:
China credit tightening housing price bubble and inflation control, in
2010 to reduce GDP from 12 % to 8 %, M2 money supply growth from 28 to 17 % in
2010 and US exit strategy fighting inflation in second half 2010 will cut oil
demand and lead to oil price peaking out in 2010
Oil price will be rebound from 69 to 75 in 1Q 2010, and to 66- 88 in 2 Q , and 3
Q and 74-88 in 4 Q
Gasoline price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 200- 250 in 2, 3 Q, 200-
220 in 4Q
heating oil price will be rebound from 190- 210 in 1 Q, 1850- 210- in 2, 3
Q, 210- 250 in 4Q
Natural gas price will be rebound from4.5-6.0 in 1 Q, 4.0-
5.0 in 2, 3 Q, 5.0- 6.5 in 4Q
Gold price will be rebound from 1000- 1150 in 1 Q, 1150- 1250 in 2, 3 Q,
1200- 1350 in 4Q
US dollar firm due to continued debt crisis in PIGS and UK
US dollar in 1 Q, 1.25-1.32- -EURO , 1.18-1.27- EURO in 2 Q, 1.20- 1.35 ,in
3 Q, 1.25- 1.35 in 4 Q
and 1.45- 1.50 pound in 1 Q, 2 Q and 1.46- 1.52- 1.58 in 3, 4 Q
US dollar peaking out in 1 Q, 88- 93 Yen , 78- 90 in 2Q, 3Q,
85- 92 in 4 Q,
Dr./Prof. Warren Huang
黃華南
博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA
Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Trade Finance Strategy
will be offering
5 Day Global Oil, Metal, Agricultural Commodity
Markets Prices forecast adn Structural Trade Finance
SCF
Supply and Value Chain Optimization , Basell Risks Management Masterclass workshop,
in-house
at your office at your convenient time
Worshop Goal:
structured to provide the latest proactive strategic decision
tool for global import/export and real time daily commodity, raw material trading,
capitalize on the emerging NY, Chicago, China energy, metal, feed grain
commodity markets pricing , real time trading strategy and Basel II
financing credit default, markets price, operational risks early warning management maximize value chain profit
at minimum risks
Workshop Mission:
•Provide proactive structural China/global trade and commodity
markets, finance price mechanism,
analyze, forecast, capitalize on the emerging commodities ( oil, energy,
metals, feed grain price bull/bear market trend, risks trend achieve sustainable profit , while
minimize risks•
Provide the What, Why, How and timing of your China/global strategic commodity
trade financing to minimize supply chain costs, maximize value chain profits website
www.osawh.com email
osawhh@sina.com /
wh3928@yahoo.com
Over 30 years OSA Global
Proactive
Structural Strategic Import/Export Trade and Real Time Energy, Commodity Pricing, Finance
Basel II
Risks Systems Simulation and Strategic Restructure, Reengineering Management for
WTO
multilateral, bilateral trade impact analysis and global competitive pricing and market shares
value chain optimization,
risks management
WTO trade negotiation strategy,
Comment by
-Wall Street Journal Market Beat
June 29, 2008
1202pm and www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
Dr./Prof. Warren Huang
黃華南
博士Founder OSA Global Strategic Management, San Francisco, USA
Pioneer, Proactive Structural China/Global Energy, Trade Finance Strategy
will be offering
Global Oil, Commodity Market Prices Forecasts, Structural
Commodity Trade Finance, Value Chain Optimization Masterclass workshop,
These systems also tracking, simulate root causes, onset, spread,
recovery of last 20 years global financial, currency, asset bubble burst
crisis impact on global commodity trade finance strategic performance
website
www.osawh.com email
osawhh@sina.com /
wh3928@yahoo.com
reserve to our SCM strategy workshop offered at your
corporate office for for all your staff,
or book your Refinery operations improvement, troubleshooting, debottleneck,
energy conservation at your plantsite for full day review,
operations improvement reserve your in-house workshops by email :
wh3928@yahoo.com /
osawhh@sina.com
Goal and Mission
To achieve billions dollar saving and profits improvement with this demand side price
forecast improved
cost, quality, market shares and avoided trillion financial, commodity markets loss through the development, and
implementation of your strategic investment, competitive sourcing, E-procurement, inventory, production,
marketing, sales, suppliers, customer relation simulation decisions -guidance
and control , integrating supply
chain into core business ,process, products R & D and daily process plant
operations, marketing, sales Total Quality Management billion dollar cost
reduction and achieve sustainable profit in crisis in one years program, without
staff job cuts or capital investment
Workshops Schedule:
9:00 am- 9:300am : Introduction:
Review of current global economy recession, economic stimulus, bail , financial
crisis impact on oil , feedstock, products demand, prices trend., supply demand corporate/plant
investment/supply demand chain , suppliers, customers , competitors cost, divisional operations performance and
business operations strategy
9:30 am-10:30am Demand side daily NYMEX, London, China oil gas, fuels
commodity raw materials price mechanism, tracking forecast the emerging bull/bear market
trend.:
A. Proactive structural demand side market price mechanism simulation: US,
China, global major consumer countries monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO
policy impact on inflation, interest rate, currency, seasonal summer driving ,
winter heating oil demand and interest rate , recession, economic stimulus impact on
consumer, business demand , currencies, supply, inventory, and market
speculation, technical charting impact on NYMEX, London, China gasoline, heating
oil, gas ,crude oil daily prices
B. Application to billion dollar Integrated supply demand chain and TQM cost reductions
and identification of areas for strategic operations improvement
10:30am-11:00 am coffee break and question and answers
11:00am-12:00 am: Methodology for strategic OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis )
guidance and control and
global oil/gas upstream/downstream
strategic decision analysis development of suppliers, customers,
competitors supply demand chain Information knowledge based expert systems: covering 3 economic cycles data since 1980
A: Strategic
Competitive Sourcing Dynamic simulation of monetary Policy impact on crude oil,
raw material prices, suppliers
cost /performance :global oil & Gas/Chemicas, feedstock supply and demand, contract, spot export, import prices
simulation , forecasts: save billion dollar procurement, inventory cost and markets shares
profits.
B. Global interest rates, currency, corporate earning, stocks prices
simulation saves trillion dollar markets loss and supplier, customer account receivables
credit risks,
12:00am-12:30pm : Setup cost, quality, markets shares
goal, mission, performance oriented Suppliers, supply demand chain, TQM strategic and execution OSA teams :
OSA program manager preside over the weekly executive OSA team review, and monthly joint
strategic, executive teams review, provide project management, methodology, development,
implement decision simulation
strategic OSA teams : consists of CEO, CFO, CIO, corporate finance, procurement,
production marketing, sales VP provide performance review, goal setting
executive OSA teams: development, implement OSA decisions support for integrated suppliers,
supply demand chain, TQM
cost reduction , members include corporate
investment, suppliers, procurement production, information, marketing, sales
, customers, managers, senior staff.
meet daily, weekly execute, review operations, reporting monthly to strategic OSA team
12:30pm-- 2:00pm Lunch
Afternoon Session
Implementation of Strategic Integrated Supply Chain and
TQM Cost Reduction Case Studies:
2:00pm-2:30pm
US multinational integrated oil/petrochemical companies strategic simulation, cost
reduction:
A: Integrating process/products R & D, process plant
operations cost/quality performance into supply chain management
Rigorous, kinetic information knowledge based expert systems applied for corporate/
refinery/fiber intermediates (PTA) process simulation: crude oil assay impact on refinery
reactors yield and recovery operations improvement, computer control
B. Integrate product quality and customer relation and value management into
supply chain management Nonlinear Optimal Gasoline blending and AI stochastic models based nationwide gasoline
stations, retail chains, customer relations performance simulation
C. Rigorous, kinetic information knowledge based expert systems applied for corporate/
refinery olefin plant Simulation of Crude oils assay, LPG feeds compositions change impact
on FCC< olefin plant reactors yields , recover units operating profits optimization,
computer control
2:30pm-3:00pm Case Studies:
Enterprise Restructuring, Reengineering, Strategic knowledge based Change Management Process Operations
Improvement
Strategic competitive sourcing, outsourcing, alliance , SRM and CRM operations
simulation analysis.
China/Taiwan/US/European multinational integrated oil/petrochemical companies integrated supply demand chain
strategic simulation, cost reduction:
Setup cost, quality, markets shares goal, mission, performance oriented TQM strategic
and execution OSA teams
A: Information knowledge based expert systems : and Operations
Simulation Analysis of monetary policy impact on OPEC production , US, Asian, European
, Arabian crude oil, gas, naphtha, gasoline, heating oil demand, futures,
derivatives prices, hedging ethylene,
propylene, strategic supply chain procurement strategy
B. Corporate/ refinery/olefins process simulation, mass reconciliation computer control::
crude oil assay, feedstock impact on refinery /olefin cracker reactors yield, recovery
operations improvement, computer control
China/Taiwan multinational integrated petrochemical / fiber intermediates company integrated
supply demand chain strategic simulation, cost reduction:
A: Information knowledge based expert systems :
Simulation of monetary policy impact on US, Asian, European crude oil, naphtha, ethylene,
propylene, ammonia, benzene, demand, prices, inventory, spot, contract prices for
procurement, inventory cost reduction
Integrated supply demand chain, TQM cost reduction workshops
over 100 workshops offered to Taiwan’s state enterprises oil, petrochemical steel, aluminum, electric power, banking,
finance and China’s oil,
petrochemical, companies and Indonesia , Thailand and S. Korea oil, petrochemicals senior
corporate, technical staff.
3:00pm-3:30pm coffee break, Question and answers
Private small, medium Enterprise Reform, Change Management Process Operations Improvement
3:30pm-4:00pm
B. Information knowledge based expert systems
Simulation of monetary policy impact on US, Asian, European olefins , acetic acid,
acrylonitrile, caprolactum and downstream ABS, acrylic fibers, nylon fibers customers
sales demand, inventory, spot, contract prices , competitive pricing, inventory, markets
share strategy
C. Ethylene, Caprolactum , acrylonitrile process simulation, mass reconciliation ,
feedstock composition, operating severity impact on reactors yields, recovery, energy
conservation operations improvement, computer control
Taiwan / China integrated fiber company supply demand chain strategic simulation, TQM cost
reduction:
A: Information knowledge based expert systems :
Simulation of monetary policy impact on US, Asian, European heating oil, Ethylene glycol,
PTA, Caprolactum , demand, inventory, spot, contract prices for procurement, inventory
cost reduction
B. Information knowledge based expert systems
Simulation of monetary policy impact on US, Asian, European polyesters, nylon fibers,
sales demand, inventory, spot, contract prices , competitive pricing, inventory, markets
share strategy
C Polyester and Nylon process simulation, mass reconciliation , feedstock composition,
operating severity impact on reactors yields, recovery, energy conservation , fiber
processing performances operations improvement, control.
4:00-5:00 PM,
Taiwan/China/US integrated styrene and PS/ABS company supply demand chain simulation, TQM cost
reduction:
A: Information knowledge based expert systems :
Simulation of monetary policy impact on US, Asian, European gasoline, heating
oil, Ethylene , benzene demand, inventory, OPEC production planning
strategy spot, future, derivatives prices, procurement, risk hedging
strategy,
B. Information knowledge based expert systems
Simulation of monetary policy impact on US, Asian, European ethyl benzene, styrene, PS,
ABS sales demand, inventory, spot, contract prices , competitive pricing, markets share
strategy
C Ethyl benzene, styrene, PS, ABS process simulation, mass reconciliation , feedstock
composition, operating severity impact on reactors yields, recovery, energy conservation ,
polymer processing performances operations improvement, control
Global Financial Markets Simulation , Banking
Finance industry Reform, Risks Management
D. Corporate profit margin improvement, stock prices performances and investment
strategy
A: Lectured to 30 millions Taiwan, China, 15 cities TV, radio audiences and offered
over hundred workshop to 100 China, Taiwan, US banking, brokerage companies CEO, CFO,
investment banking, traders executives
on the simulation of monetary policy impact on global financial markets prices, tracking
accurately last 20 years US, Asian, ASEAN , European interest rate, currency, corporate
sales, earning, stock prices avoided asset bubble bursts, trillion dollar markets loss (
including warned Jan last year on US high tech bubble burst, NASDAQ plunged to 2000, Dos
plunged to 9000 and This year US manufacturing recession .
B. Provide weekly advice to Taiwan
details on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm