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Daily Global
Forex Markets Real Time Proactive Structural Dynamic Currency and
Derivatives Prices Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis Forecast Two
master hands controling global Forex daily Strategic Trading ,Multiclass Asset allocation, Risk Management Research:
Widening US budget deficit of 1.8 trillion drag US dollar to new low,
However, will be supported by recession recovery in housing, push interest
rate higher
Proactive Structural Gliobal daily Real Time Currency Forecast and trading
Strategy Workshop
US Global credit, financial crisis resulted risk aversion, dump high
yield currency ( pound, EURO, A ¥)despite US
facing recession, zero interest rate and declining export, soaring trade
and current account deficit due to
strong dollar resulted export decline and bail out, stimulus spending, soaring
budget deficit( 1.8 trillion) switch to low yield
Yen are excessive, while EURO suffer 2.6 billion trade deficit Apr. 2009,
Japan enjoyed 500 million trade surplus vs US 26
billion trade deficit ( already reduced from 57 billion due to recession
resulted plunge in import
US dollar peaking out , plunge, against major currency due to excessive debt
driving negative interest rate and bond yield mortgage rate to 4.5 %, widening budget deficit despite recent rebound due to speculation over economic recovery by
stimulus package at its early stage, mortgage rate up 1 % to 5.65 % and plunge in trade deficit resulted stock market rebound
40 % .
already facing correction predicted by Dr. Huang in
continued housing market slum and soaring jobless rate through 2009. will
be traded 1.35- 1.45- EURO, 88- 98 Yen and 1.52 -1.70
pound, 6.7- 6.85 RMB due to
strong dollar lead to deep recession , and declining export sluggish
retail sale, soaring jobless rate as it did to EURO
Two master hands controlling daily global Forex trading prices OSA
Currency Risks Management:
Thousands proactive structural dynamic strategic Basel II market, credit,
operational, risks early warning, simulate monetary, economic, fiscal policy
impact on interest rate, currency, quantify , minimize uncertainty
impact on global currency investment return
(
daily Forex future trading strategy workshop )
Strategic PGFCR : Proactive Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms
Do not miss Trillion Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short ,ultra
short strategy for
China
Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Hedging 2009
Conference,
Pudong, China, March, 2009
by
EUROMONEY
Trillion Dollar Recession Risks
Hedging 2009
Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009
program China
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis,
Recession,, Infrastructure Stimulus
Impact on Economy, Capital Markets Forecast by
Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset,
Derivatives
Allocation Strategy
by Dr. Warren Huang website:
www.osawh.com
Hyatt Regency, Pudong,
Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity,
Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation
by
World Renown Proactive Structural
Asset Pricing pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang
Post-
Conference Master Class Strategic
Multi-class Asset Allocation
Workshop, Terrapinn
Chinese
Proactive
Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and China/Global
Fund World,
Asset
Allocation 2008,- 2009
by
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management
Proactive Recession Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar
4- 6, 2008
Reservation
for your in
house workshop
osawhh@sina.com/
wh3928@yahoo.com
risk management panelist and
planned
full day master class workshop lecturer for
Terrapinn China Fund World 2008 conference, offer Proactive structural
China/global asset
pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on
Energy, Commodity, multi-calss assets long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy to
150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII
executives
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog December 15, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Dr. Warren Huang
(黃華南博士)
Pioneer, proactive
structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets
interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing,
commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned
on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007
and Mar
5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong,
China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150
China QDII/QFII fund managers
that US Fed aggressive rate
cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost
consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline ,
heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price will peak out as US
dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not
stop
housing price slump
continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession
and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test
11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % and high fliers (GOOG,
PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,
with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new
low, oil price to 140 and gas to 14, commodity prices doubled, widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO,
Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund
,despite
Fed rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference
that China overheated
housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US
housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing
2550 till summer 2008, plunged again to 1800- 2000 after Dow
Jones plunged to 6500,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets
fundamentals price mechanism, ,capital on
the emerging bull, bear market trend
through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio
management, He recommended US mutual fund ( US oil fund follow
oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial, up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq
) UP 30 %. , and
recommended ETF: US natural gas up 100 % as natural gas
soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price
doubled from 70 to 149. and Oppenheimer Commodities up 90 %
as, corn, soybean price doubled , He warned on Wall
Street Journal Market Beat, May
and June, that oil price will peaking out at 145 July 4 th and plunged to 115
and bubble burst, down 50- 70 % in Dec. 2008 to 30- 40
Comment to Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog Sept. 5 ,2008 11:26AM
Dollar will peaking out soon
Comment by -Wall Street Journal
Real Time economic, Yahoo Finance techer Aug. 19, 2008 at
10:21
am
Based on my tracking last 30 years US
dollar impact on corporate profit, oil, commodities, price inflation and strong
dollar did help to drag oil ad commodity price down in recent price correction
and cool off the inflation, and short term boost stock indices, confidence,
price, (, but it will shown later to cut US export competitive 2 month
later, cut into multinational companies profit margin in foreign investment,
EURO and Japan has suffered badly by their strong currency. But do not worry,
Dollar will be self regulated by economic, slowdown, soaring trade deficit due
to export decline, stock price plunge due to decline sales, profits ( especially
in hightech like IBM details on
www.osawh.com/currency.html
www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm
www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/SP500.html
www.osawh.com/prodo2.html
www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
Comment by -Wall Street Journal Market Beat
June
11, 2008 at
3:21 pm
According to my tracking last 20 years daily
Euro, Yen and oil price movement, oil price is more snesitive to euro lately,
due to EURO ECB more aggressive fighting soaring 3.2 % inflation, while Japan
inflation stay relative flat at 1.5 %, no immediate threat and interest rate
relative constant at 1.5 %
Todya EURO rebound from 1.54 to 1.556 push oil price higher, Oil will follow
EURO move to 1.575 retest 139.
Comment by - June 3, 2008 at 2:51 pm
From my tracking of last 30 years global currency price mechanism, currency
are very sensitive over central banks statement on direction of interest
rates.
Benanke statement on the end of rate cuts, indicating firming interest rates
will support US dollar, as I repeatedly stated on this blog.
However, global central banks are more serious on inflation and rate hikes
without risks of recession. Bernane still concern about economic recession.
Therefore, dollar fundamental weakness still exist, it will be traded in
narrow range, 1.5- 1.65 EURO, 950 108 Yen.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
www.osawh.com/currency.html
We have to look at the dollar fundamental
price and its impact on industrial sectors mechanism to track its prices.There are not easy statistical correlation.
Dollar bull due to 6 years economic expansion and rate hikes series, while
dollar weakness due to economic slowdown, recession fear resulted rate cuts
expectation.
Utility, consumer goods goods are heavily related to domestic consumer
spending, strong dollar raise buying power while utility consumer going up
with more manufacturing
plant demand for utility.
But continue housing market slump will drag consumer demand, ( economic
stimulus will not be sufficient to support the demand slowdown) economics
into recession, manufacturing activity ISM already down to 47 .Despite ISM
service sectors up to 52, it will not be sustainable stay above 50 after
second quarter stimulus effect is over.
Recent dollar strength come from better than expected 0.6 % GDP growth and
soaring oil prices pushed inflation higher, forced Fed to end rate cycle
earlier, facing inflation fighting. However housing slump
continue depress the economy, Fed facing Trilemma on rate, GDP, inflation,
dollar.
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
www.osawh.com/currency.html
www.osagloobalsstrategicmanagement.com/blog1
Dr. Warren Huang will be risk management panelist and full day master class workshop lecturer for
Terrapinn China Fund World
2008 conference,
Shanghai Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive structural
China/global asset
pricing,
2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal
1x0/x0 long-short hedging, asset allocation
strategy
Do not miss again on
book his 2008 5-day US/China macroeconomic control, currency, commodities, bond,
stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops
VIP/Corporate
membership
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Forex
OSA accurately forecasts June , 2007 in Peking University that US dollar starting slipping as Bernanke statement
indicating economic slowdown ahead ( unlikely in summer), it will
reacting to widening trade deficit to
60 in summer peak season , second leg of dollar descend against Yen will begin as US
inflation concern is over , US housing market entering recession, sub-prime loan
default, cutting discount by 0.5 %,
dollar plunged from 123 to 113 Yen and
heading for recession
Wall Street Market beat Blog. Sept 16, 2007
Trillions dollars
currency carried traded daily in global equities, bond, commodities, real estate
assets in financial markets by fund managers, traders, speculating betting on
interests rates ( most of the time betting on the wrong side )impact on dollars
and associated assets.
Dollar enjoyed rally against yen due to Japan zero interest rate, however
continue slide as recent discount rate cuts.
and make all time low against high yield UK and EURO.
Further rate cuts will drag US dollar, stocks, bond prices and drive up oil,
commodities, metal prices it may avoided near term recession, however, will
postpone it a year later,will be followed by another round of rate hikes, led to
deep recession follows, like 1998 LTCM rescue, followed by 2000 rate hikes and
IT bubble burst ( this time housing bubble burst)
details can be found on
www.osawh.com/riskm.html
Comment by Warren Huang - September 17, 2007 at 1:18 pm
China RMB pegging policy: China made smart move to switch its pegging to dollar
to unspecified basket of currency, adopt graduate, rational, controllable
floating flexiblity to avoid US government and financial market hot money
speculation pressure
Special
announcement: As of March 31, 2005, all
www.osawh.com global
finance, capital market forces mechanism simulation forecasts
will be provide
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/resources2.html
and
www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/oilgas.html through its
proactive structural dynamic OSA forecast provide weekly/monthly forecast,
update,
China/global strategy
workshop, keynote
speeches, Feb.
Nov. 2005 lectures in Beijin to global oil,
banking, securities , QFII CEO, executives that oil price will rise to 55 in March. and challenging
69 in summer 2005 and Jan 2006 , driving US China inflation and
interest rate , bond yield up, stocks plunge. soaring US trade deficit
drag dollar in 2006
OSA Global Strategic Simulation/Forecasts, Your most powerful daily predictive
decision tools--
Predicted
3 months ahead
last
20 years global currency, financial crisis 1994-96 and current China macro-economic control, soft-landing,
2000 US IT bubble bursts, 2001 recession and rate cut, current rate hikes...
He accurately
predicted recently oil price rebounded from 40 to 45 and retest 50 due to cold
winter weather, soaring US trade deficit to 55 billion and Greenspan too
little too late rate hikes is incapable to support weak dollar plunged to
1.35 Euro ., gold price retest for 455 new high .
Major Global Currency Operations Simulation Analysis Forecast
US trade deficit soared to 69 billion and soaring inflation, Greenspan-
Bernanke rate hikes
insufficient to contain inflation and support dollar,
Name
Interest and trade outlook
Currency Forecast
| Name | Interest rate and trade outlook | near term | medium term |
| Australia | US rate cuts, debt , rate spread US/AU shrinking trade surplus due to commodity price rebound | 0.66 - 0.72. | 0.6- 0.9 |
| British pound | US rate cuts, debt, rate spread shrinking , but drag by UK and US widening trade deficit eventually | 1.50-1.70 | 1.53- 1.70 |
| Canadian Dollar | US rate hike , rate spread widening soaring US trade deficit , economic recession | 1.11- 1.18 | 1.05-1.16 |
| China RMB | China soaring trade surplus with US, put pressure on RMB, US rate cuts , rate spread widening China foreign buying will cut trade surplus take pressure off RMB | 6.7- 6.9 | 6.6 - 6.9 |
| EURO | US , ECB ratecuts, rate spread narrow, Soaring US trade deficit, widening EU trade deficit due to soaring oil price, recession cuts import demand | 1. 36- 1.48 | 1.34--1.482 |
| Japan Yen | US ratecuts , rate spread Japan shrinking trade surplus due to strong yen cuts export, | 85- 97 | 85- 96 |
| France Franc | US rate hike , rate spread widening trade surplus due falling export, rising oil prices | 6.1- 7.1 | 6.1- 6.4 |
| German Mark | US rate hike , rate spread widening shrinking trade surplus due falling export, rising oil prices | 1.75-1.8 | 1.65- 1.79 |
| Italian Lira | interest rate and trade deficit widening with soaring oil prices | 2150- 2199 | 2100- 2220 |
| Mexico Peso | trade deficit shrinking with soaring oil prices US rate hike | 10.50-11.0 | 10.5- 10.90 |
| Argentina | US rate hike , rate spread widening, defaults, trade surplus widening in current PESO currency, | 2.05- 2.15 | 2.--2.31 |
| Swiss Franc | interest rate and trade deficit widening with soaring oil prices, soaring US deficit | 1.08- 1.10 | 1.06- 113 |
| Taiwan NT | shrinking US trade surplus due to strong NT, oil prices , rate spread widening | 33.51--34.5 | 33.-2 33.5 |
| S. Korea Won | US rate cuts spread widening shrinking trade surplus due strong Won and global recession soaring oil prices | 1240- 1350 | 1240- 1340 |
| Thailand Baht | US rate cuts spread widening debts , shrinking trade surplus due soaring oil prices, global recession | 39..5- 42.9 | 38.- 42 |
| Singapore | US rate hike , rate spread widening shrinking trade surplus due soaring oil prices, global recession | 1. 40-1. 61 | 1. 40- 1.653 |
| Phillipine | US rate cuts , rate spread widening shrinking trade surplus due soaring oil prices, | 50- 53 | 51--52.3 |
| Malaysia | shrinking trade surplus due soaring oil prices, global recovery | 3.5- . 3.7 | 3.5-3.9 |
| Indonesia | US rate cuts , rate spread widening shrinking trade surplus due to rebound in oil price | 9800- 9900 | 9900-10700 |
| Brazil | shrinking trade surplus , global recession, rebound in commodity prices high interest rate spread | 2.00- 2.22 | 2.00- 2.12 |
| India | Soaring trade deficit due soaring oil prices, global recession | 48- 50 | 48- 50 |
Strategic Basel II
Market, Operational
Risks OSA early warning maximize risks
adjusted return
for
Basel II Capital Requirement, Risk Management conference sponsored by Asian
Strategy Leadership Institute, Singapore, Apr. 25-26 for China, Hong Kong,
Taiwan, Japan, Korea, ASEAN countries banking, finance senior risks,
planning management, fund managers ( Dr. Huang offered thousands lectures to
China, Taiwan, US TV, radio station 30 million investors, hundreds risk
management workshops for hundreds banking, finance CEO, CFO , fund managers.
or reserve his full day in-house workshop email
wh3928@yahoo.com/
osawhh@sina.com
in- house workshop Apr. 20- 23, or Apr. 28-30 at your office
( he just offered on Feb 23 , Beijing to 70 China, Asian, US, European oil,
gas, banking executives accurately:
Highlights:
* Structural dynamic simulation forecast of monetary,
economic policy impact on daily global finance, capital markets asset prices
Operation Simulation Analysis (OSA) avoided trillion dollar markets
non-performance loan.
* Basel II Markets, Credit, Operational, interest rate,
currency risks OSA forecast, risks early warning systems
* Corporate cost and financial accounting systems OSA tracking, governance
scandal early warning, maximize
transparency and performance.
*Cost,
Profit, Risks, Market Shares as goal, mission, performance oriented
strategic (board members, senior executive , risk manager, auditing team)
and execution ( junior executives, risk staff ) OSA teams tracking daily
corporate performance and risks, maximize risk adjusted return
*
Global/Asian equities, bond, oil, metals, commodity futures, derivatives
prices, assets and mortgage backed securitization asset prices simulation,
forecast, structural finance risks hedging OSA. minimize Basel II market
risks.
* Risks OSA forecast
, early
warning,
tracking,
forecasts
daily Basel II three pillars risk management requirement, minimize capital
adequacy requirement in daily risks monitoring, reporting, measurement.
cost: Dr. Huang San Francisco rt air fare, local hotel, lecture fee.
By
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of
two master hands thousands structural dynamic simulators
controlling global currency market forces
prices mechanism , trained 1000 economic students tracking simulate 100
countries macro-financial, industrial, trade economic impact on currency prices
mechanism, wrote thousands articles and consulting to Taiwan 300,000
import/exporters 100 countries currencies, 5000 commodity, products daily
currency,
import/export pricing strategy in global currency crisis since 1985.
He has been invited by 24 US, ECB, Asian central governors, financial risk
management conferences tracking, forecast the root causes, onset, recovery ,
early warning of global currency crisis
He accurately predicted on this website and to 70
global oil, gas and downstream executives in his Beijing risk management
workshop Feb 23-25 that oil price rebounded from 40 to 50 and challenge 55 in
March due to cold
winter weather and OPEC one million barrels production cut. soaring US trade deficit to 55-
60 billion and will challenge 60- 65 billion in summer 2005 and Greenspan too
little too late rate hikes resulted excessive consumer, business demand is
incapable to support weak dollar plunged to 1.32 -1.45- Euro , 100- 104 Yen ., gold price retest for 455-480 new high .Breakthrough innovation in Proactive Structural Dynamic
Global
Economic Policy Systems Simulation:
Monetary
macroeconomic policy
Financial
Economics Industrial
Economy
Regional Economy
Investment banking,
Capital Markets Asset Prices,
Global Trade Economics
Breakthrough Innovation in Global Capital Market Equities
Market Prices Valuation Models
The only and most reliable structural dynamic deterministic decision
simulators tracking, forecasts months ahead last 20 years global economic,
financial crisis, asset bubble, and daily capital market asset (
interest rate, currency, commodity, equities, stocks, bond futures,
derivatives ) prices market forces mechanism,
avoided trillion dollar market loss and billion dollar supply chain cost due to current probabilistic models
based , speculation over daily economic, business news, technical
charting market momentum based capital market asset prices and risks models ( CAPM ), presented to
24 US, European, China, Taiwan , Asian central bank governors, financial risks
and wealth management , futures, derivatives prices forecasts conferences
and on this website www.osawh.com
tracking daily results , visited by million global government, central banks,
banking, finance, corporate executives universities since 1998
===============================================================================================
=================================================================================================
Strategic China Energy
trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop
Do not miss these billion dollar
global strategic energy solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock
costs
Dr. Warren Huang will
share with you his 30 years hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy
financing project managers and consulting experiences in his key note
speech and workshop for Asian Business Forum
www.abf.com.sg China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25,
2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy
reform, rates hike impact on oil, gas demand, prices and gas
industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities,
Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and
downstream
demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments
risk adjusted return
C. Global / China oil, gas, LNG Project financing operation,
markets, credit, policy risks management, early warning systems workshop
including the causes, onset, spread, recovery,
early warning of China/global energy crisis,supply bottleneck and policy,
manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking
or reserve your full day in-house lectures and workshop by
osawhh@citiz.net
:
5 Day Global
Interest Rates, Bond Yield, Stock Indices, Currency
Futures, Option Prices Mechanism Simulation , Index, Debt Fund Asset
Allocation Strategy 2005 Forecast Workshop
30 years helping 78 countries multinationals oils and
downstream fighting soaring oil, feedstock cost, maximizing sustainable
profits and market shares.
friendly link to
www.derivativesportal.org of Eurex and IMC
major currency, futures, derivatives trader in Europe
Dr. Huang told thousands global currency traders on Euro-events Asia/China
finance capital markets conferences in Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin, Nov. 2003
that
In tracking last 20 years global currency markets daily trading,:
Global currency are not control, influenced by any country president,
central bank intervention, treasury, G-7, emerging markets finance ministers meeting. They are
controlled by our currency markets forces modeling of two master hands: interest rates and trade data,
integrating into market technical analysis, psychology covering
last 20 years 100 countries daily currency trading, including normal and all the
currency crisis since 1980 !
So, don't wasting your time follow your currency market analysts, chasing the
daily market news, resulted trillion dollar loss
Dr. Warren Huang CV
accurately
predicted Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore ,Shanghai Euro-events conferences , and this
website that US Oil, commodity prices reaching 23 year high, inflation up 5 % in
May 2004
job creation, productivity, profit growth peaking out in the second
quarter 2004 Fed June 0.25 % rate hike China credit tightening, follow US rate
hike in summer 2004, China macroeconomic control repeat 1994 will achieve soft
landing Apr. 2005, Global bull markets are over, entering bear market
consolidation.
He also predicted Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo, Kuotai securities investors, Beijin China Financial Times, China
macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded
between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very
attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market
, industrial sectors analysts ignoring
,Dr. Huang photo
warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China
Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan
central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand
prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed governors
, Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on IT asset bubble
bursts
and again
to Euro-events Singapore
, Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
2003 Asian/China
Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture
to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers
and China Economist annual
meeting Dec. 20 and
www.osawh.com
website and thousands workshops
warning US, global analysts over optimistic economic recovery, job
creation, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts
, 45 trillion dollar housing, equities
wealth effect resulted excessive
consumer, business demand, soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble
reaching 23 year high in March, soaring China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over
120 %), coal, energy shortage, China stocks bull market is over, entering bear
market consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1300-1400, IPO and newly listed
small cap shares plunge 30-50 % , low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec,
Unicom will lead future rebound. US trade deficit soared to 48
billion and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes after May 2004,
profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence, business spending peaking
out, facing squeeze in summer 2004, Job creation peaking out at
March 370,000, May 230,000, June 110,000, stock prices
peaking out in the third quarter, facing consolidation. US High tech, finance,
housing, retails, auto share will plunge 30-50
% and trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets and trillion dollar
profits in oil, commodity futures investments
US inflation rate at 5.1% in May, with consumer spending up 1%, consumer
confidence above 100, more rate hikes are required to cool off the economy.
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks facing
consolidation
Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking,
Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset
prices tracking, forecasts:
Dr. Huang lectured to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking,
finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared
to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum. He lectured Nov.
2003 lectured to Euro-events
Singapore
http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/
photos 1,
2,
3
lecture ppt
,
Shanghai, Beijin Nov.
Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,
www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003
picture
2
and to
China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec.
over 2000 QFII/QDII executives,
identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles month
ahead, investment opportunities in China
petrochemical
upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and
Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 % IPO shares up 150 %
and early warning for asset bubbles
in oil, commodities prices reaching 23 year peak( recommended
invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %)
in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement
over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening,
accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 %
open market inter-bank rate (Chibor)must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion
from the capital markets, US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the
summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite
March strong 300,000 new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate
is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and
summer lead to serious
bond market plunge (US lose 380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing
bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and
blue chips banking shares will peaking out in July facing and correction 2004,
Market speculators using Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and
blue chips is premature, Dell will facing pricing cutting from HP in back to
school sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 36, IBM
test 87.
Global IPO will facing 30-50 % correction as Google
plunged from 199 to 60-80, any attempt using IPO to speculate market rebound will be
followed by sell off bear trap Dow will be traded 9550- 10800, Nasdaq 1750- 2100 , Taiwan index post election
bubble burst from 7200 to 5000- 5500, Henseng 10500- 13900, Nikkei 10000-
11900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1250- 1500, Shenzhen 3000-
3550, Euro : 1.29- 1.39 , Yen 100-105, US, Asian and European stocks follow US
stocks rebound in the final quarter 2004 will gave up all this year gain
China and US economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks
( including IPO )facing
30-50 % bear market correction consolidation
Shanghai Aug. 21-24, Taipei Sept 11- 15, Singapore Sept 19-20, Kuala Lumpur Sept 22- 23 , email osawhh@citiz.net for in-house workshops reservation
(covered thousands lectures, 46 countries capital cities 30 million government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, fund managers, senior executives investors since 1983 by 80 )
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset
prices, crisis, bubble early warning
Speaker, Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global leader, scholar
in Global Strategic Investment , Risks Management
Pioneer, two maaster hands controlling global economy, capital market asset
prices, crisis, bubble early warning
for oil, petrochemicals and downstream end users 20
industrial sectors :housing, construction material, auto, appliances, IT, metals
5000 products market economy market forces demand, prices
mechanism OSA/
forecast, supporting last 20 years investment, supply chain logistics strategy (workshops)
Published 14 paper series 1979- 1983 on US Oil & Gas Journal , Hydrocarbon
Processing and
20 English articles, US patents, millions copies published by US Hydrocarbon
Processing,
advanced control-information system
handbook 1991-2003
www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html circulation to 80 countries
1600 multinationals , lectured to American Institute of Chemical Eng. Diamond
Jubilee Meeting, Washington DC, World Congress, Chemicals Eng. Montreal, Tokyo,
Frankfurt, Paris, Prague 46 countries capitals Chemical Eng, OPEC ministers
conferences published thousands Chinese articles o daily newspapers, economic,
finance, industrial economic newspapers , 300,000 import/exporters 100
countries currencies, export pricing in Taiwan, China.
2004 -2005 OSA Global economic forecast by Dr. Warren Huang June 2004
Dr. Huang
's two master hands financial modeling accurately
predicted last 20 years daily US interest rate, bond, currency commodities, gold, oil
prices daily capital market prices 4 month ahead and again at
Shanghai University of Finance, Economics, Oct. 25, Euro-event Singapore, Nov. 5,
2003 Asian Finance, capital market
conference on Monetary
policy impact on Asian and China economic outlook, asset prices,
applying his two master hands (
interest rate and trade) currency market forces price mechanism, wrote 600
articles on trade journal, helping Taiwan central bank and 200,000
importer/exporters daily/weekly NT/ 100 currencies ( US and cross rates)
from NT fixed at 40 to float to 25- 40, covering Yen from 250 to 80 during 1985-
1995 and Asian financial crisis. He warned
that any free float of RMB will lead to China currency crisis and US
runaway inflation import
consumer goods will up 50 % to double) and repeat past global financial crisis, bubble burst.
Only Dr. Huang's two master hands ( interest rate and
trade, economic policy ) market forces price mechanism guide through RMB
gradual appreciation widening trading band is the best approach, regardless peg to the dollar or a
basket of currency.
Greenspan agree with Dr.
Huang recently too that China RMB immediate float will resulting global crisis and Dr.
Huang also
recommended
to buy Russia oils,
China A, B ADR oil, petroch( PTR, SNP, CEO), steel, aluminum share and Hong Kong
H shares due to soaring Russia China, demand, profits, DFI inflow, while sell
overheated US,
Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Japan, German IT shares, due to price cutting.
buy with caution global banking, finance stocks due to low interest rate,
soaring housing, stock markets facing bubble burst. and continue recommendation on China
shares
on China finance, capital market conference Shanghai, Nov. 25 , Beijin,
Nov. 27 2003, but warned China stocks bubble on China economic society annual meeting, Fudan Univeristy,
Dec. 20, 2003 bubbles in China ADR share up 50 % -80 % after Dr. Huang Nov. 5
recommendation due
to hurt by China Peoples Bank credit tightening in steel, cement, auto,
housing will facing 20 %
correction , China life IPO will give up most of its gain US rate hike by May 2004, ,US dollar stabilize ,oil prices traded 28-36, gold price peaking out ,
traded 380-430
as confirmed by China People's bank Jan 5 to cut the money supply growth from
2003's 18 % to 14- 15 % this year ,
China leave RMB unchange and Greenspan indicated the need for rate hike
You only have to checking into a few times a month on interest rate and trade
data
Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of two master hands controlling global
forex currency market Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) trading
market forces prices mechanism, trained 1000 engineering management senior
students develop, implemented forex trading OSA. Hundreds structural
dynamic OSA models develop, implement out of information knowledge base of last
20 years Wall Street Journals daily market analysts, technical charting,
monetary economics, trading data and IMF statistics and Nobel economic prize
winners papers wrote 600 articles for Taiwan banking, 200,000 importer/exporters
trade journals , offered thousands global executives
currency trading strategy workshops, tracking Taiwan NT dollar
currency from switch from fixed currency to free float ( 40 to 24 )and its
100 countries cross rates US dollar exchange rate (covering Yen from 250
to 80, Mark from 1.2 to 2.4, Euro from 0.83 to 2.3, Russia Ruble from 5 to 32,
China RMB from 3.2 to 10.0) since 1985, presented to 24 global
central banks governors, financial management conferences on global currency crisis early warning
since 1998 and tracking daily 40 global major currencies on this website
since 1998 ( visited by million global central banks, banking, finance CEO,
executives)
Providing online simulation, forecast of global trade, interest rate
market forces impact on 100
currency, derivatives prices and risks hedging accurately predicted global currency crisis in the last 20
years
Providing online simulation, forecast of global trade, interest rate
market forces impact on 100
currency/cross rate prices movements accurately predicted global currency crisis in the last 20
years
Strategic trading, risks hedging training Workshops
Global Country,
Banking, Finance crisis, Corporate Currency Crisis, Risks Simulation, Control
A Single Simulation Chart tells you 20 years story about
major markets forces : global monetary policy, external
shocks( capital flow, speculative attack, oil prices , trade balances ) impact on country,
banking, finance, corporate, import/export currency risks in normal, crisis (1980, 1987,
1990, 1992, 1997-98 financial crisis and 2000-2001 global slowdown), under stress one month
ahead. Have offered thousands lectures/executives workshops for 30 million global government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO,
financial, fund, 300,000 import/exporter managers and presented to 50 int'l government,
central banks policy, banking, finance, risk management conferences
These structural, deterministic, forward-looking real options currency
futures prices mechanism, market forces crisks
dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary policy, multiple shocks impact on
global macro, financial, trade, industrial economics, tracking accurately US, European,
ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America, Mexico currency prices
mechanism and causes, response in banking crisis with average error
Below 1.5 %, correlation constants above 0.95 ( without statistics probability inputs as
required in existing VaR models )
Thousands causes and effect structural, dynamic proven
predictive OSA
simulators beat daily money, capital, insurance, property markets ( published thousands articles, 30 million copies ( over 10 million
readers ) for reliable tracking, forecasts 3 month ahead of last 20 years
central banks monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global/China economy,
daily capital market asset prices, bubble early warning, tailor to QFII/QDII
investment needs.
=======================================================================================
first time shown on this website
the most reliable global stock indices , currency , wealth
management OSA simulation charts
OSA Simulation Charts tracking forecasts 1-3 month
ahead monetary policy on last 20 years daily
A. Consumer spending, Fed Fund rate, Dollar exchange rate impact on Dow Jones Index
B. Japan money supply growth, Yen exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on Tokyo Nikkei index
C. EU money supply growth, EURO exchange rate, Dow Jones impact on German DAX index
D. Hong Kong money supply growth, interbank rate, Dow Jones impact on Henseng index have
E. US and EURO trade
deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on EURO exchange rate
F. US and Japan trade deficit/surplus, interest rate spread impact on
YEN exchange rate
Goal:
Prevent, predict, minimize
global government, central banks, macro
economic, monetary policy, oil price, interest rate, trade balance , global players
capital flow, speculation shocks impact on daily 100 countries currency exchange rates
resulted risks
Mission:
Tracking , simulating the
currency futures prices mechanism, the major market forces behind the causes,
onset, spread, and prevention , early warning of macroeconomic, monetary policy imbalance ,capital flow
speculation, trade, current account balance, interest rate spread impact on currency
exchange rates, financial derivatives markets risks in each industry, corporate ,
portfolio resulted currency loss. Support, control banking, finance, corporate daily
currency markets trading risks, provide dynamic, forward looking market prices simulation,
for banking, finance industry capital requirement ,
wealth management supervision, regulation, risk control.
Performance Tracking :
Goal, mission, performance oriented
currency risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution
teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural
bottom up currency Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years
global central banks monetary policy and oil price, inflation, capital flow speculative
attacks shocks impact on daily global:
Money Markets OSA: Short term, long
term interest rate, bonds prices and spreads simulation
Currency Market OSA : Interest rate spread, trade deficit/surplus impact on global
currency simulation
Currency futures, derivatives prices hedging simulation : Monetary policy impact on interest
rate, currency, simulation integrated into Black-Schole formulas for call/putt option
simulation supported hedging risk control.
Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out of his 30 year
global strategic procurement, financial markets investment risks management simulation,
control experience for US multinational headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum,
Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control), Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian
governments, 200,000 importer/export 100 countries trade, state and private
enterprises corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 30
million China, Taiwan, Asian, Euro, S. American CEO, CFO, fund, procurement, trade
managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
OSA-Interest rate and OSA-Currency Risks simulation
Interest rate
futures = F( money supply
growth, oil, commodity prices, inflation rate)
Exchange rate futures = F ( US trade deficit, country trade surplus (deficit), interest rate
spread between US and the other country)
Dr. Warren Huang warned that low interest rate led to soaring consumer
demand for cheap import and trade
deficit and plunging dollar on May 28 , 2002 in Beijin' global finance
conference, and Singapore, Shanghai, Beijin Euro-events Asian/China finance,
capital market conferences Nov. 2003 to 1000 QFII, Forex traders that US dollar plunge due to soaring 44 billion
trade deficit in April 2003. it plunged from 134, 2002 to recent 105 Yen ,
1.30 EURO in late
2003. Dr. Huang
also warned however, stronger Yen and EURO will cutting into their
export prices, profit, trade balance , eventually give up all its gain. These daily global currency market forces simulator
tracking accurately last 20 years 100 currency , including this year US
dollar plunge to 1.30
EURO, 106 Yen and China RMB appreciation pressure ,reacting to soaring trade
deficit to 44 billion by Iraq war, and interest rate cut, and recent rebound due
to economic, export rebound, shrinking trade deficit.
Global Money, Currency Markets Interest
Rate, Inflation Currency exchange Rates Simulation Over thousands of
artificial intelligence, neural net, fuzzy logic, chaos algorithms based tracking global
central banks monetary policy impact on daily global financial money market
interest rates, inflations, currency exchange rates,
wealth management Operations Simulations
Analysis experts systems have been developed and implemented for US, Asian Pacific,
European. South American financial markets tracking, simulate US Fed and global central
bankers monetary policy and it's impact on inflation, capital flow, short (Fed Fund rate) ,
long term interest rates (prime, bond yield), trade statistics impact on
currency exchange rates, investment risk management for helping 20 millions
global fund and currency trade managers, investors to take advantage of investment
opportunities in last 20 years financial crisis.
References
: Dr. Warren Huang speech to 24 int'l banking, finance,
business, government, academice conferences since 1998
and consulting to Taiwan 300,000 importer/exporters daily 100 countries, export
pricing quote since 1984.
Profile/Founder
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer
of
two master hands controlling Global economic cycles
and Capital Markets Asset Prices Mechanism, Market Forces, Bubble Simulation, early warning
and
Global
Strategic Knowledge Based
Strategic Government, Business Process Demand
Forecasts OSA Optimization Operations Simulation
Analysis OSA
over 30 years
pioneering development, implement of global integrated strategic investment,
supply chain logistics , crisis, risks, business Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)
and optimization ( patented in US " Improve Process by OSA" 1980 over 80
countries) for US Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Stauffer Chemicals, Bechtel,
Fluor , Bailey Network Control headquarters corporate finance, information
management in refinery, petrochemical, power
plant, steel, copper, coal project investment, construction, design, preventive
maintenance, crisis, risk management and strategic consulting to US depart of
energy, Taiwan ministry of economic affairs energy policy, information
technology, state enterprises ( Chinese Petroleum, China Petrochemicals,
China Steel, Aluminum, Reform, change management, and economic planning for
10 public construction projects planning, performance tracking and upgrade,
trade promotion councils, and 300,000 importer/exporter 100 countries currency,
5000 products export pricing quote. offered hundreds risk management
workshops for China ministry of finance nationwide 100 banking, securities
companies CEO,, CFO, money managers executives, tracking China macro
economic control, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products demand, prices, profit
margin, listed stocks IPO, merger/acquisition reform, investment strategy Asian, global
governments , banking, finance, hundreds state, medium, small
enterprises reform, change management. He also offered hundred workshops
for Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok CEO, CFO,
investment, supply chain executives .
He pioneered two master hands controlling last 20 years global
economy, financial market prices offered thousands lectures to
millions global banking, securities,
insurance, properties, state, medium, small enterprises senior executives and China, Taiwan 15
cities TV, radio 30 millions investors, banking, finance executives (pdf
)on tracking
monetary, economic, fiscal policy WTO impact on last 25 years global economic
cycles industrial sectors demand, asset prices , bubble, privatization, IPO,
strategic merger/acquisition, listed companies profit , stock prices simulation,
financial market investment
strategy and early warning, risk management (workshops
Chinese,
English)
Global , invited to speak to 24
global( US, ECB, China, Taiwan,
Asian ) central bank
governors, corporate governance, financial crisis, risk management conferences .
supporting
security, banking, insurance regulation, Sarbanes-Oxley Act on financial
accounting auditing maximize performance, transparency
He
published 32 global strategic business process optimization systems by
US Gulf Publishing Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced Process Control, Information
Systems handbook, 1991-2003. applied by 1600
multinationals from 72 countries.
He has been editor/columnist and consultant for macro/financial economic
industrial finance, investment forum, energy, information technology, global
strategic management for Taiwan government, banking, finance, industrial,
importer/exporter trade, investment journal, Central, Economic, Commercial Times,
Industrial Economic daily newspapers and China Economic, Financial Times,
Shanghai, China, Shenzhen, Wuhan Securities daily newspapers, wrote
thousands articles on reform, change management,
investment risk management for US, Taiwan, China government economic, finance, banking,
securities, industrials, journal
weekly economic, finance investment journal, daily newspapers
and Taiwan 300,000 importer/exporters weekly trade journals.
and this website
visited by million global central banks,
central, state, city government,
banking, finance, enterprises
executives.
He trained thousands Chemical Eng industrial economics,
global strategic management students for
Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai universities and lecture China Peking, Tsinghua, Fudan,
Jiaotung, Zechiang, Dalian universities on economic management, Chemical Eng.
computer control, financial engineering, develop implemented
global
currencies and export pricing strategy for Taiwan 300,000 importer/ exporters
100 countries currency and pricing strategy.
Millions global central banks, government, banking, finance, enterprises, CEO,
CFO, executives visited and supported www.osawh.com website since July 1998 (Partial lists)
==========================================================================================
Global central banks,
government agency:
FRB, ECB, China Peoples banks, State department, IMF, World Bank, UN, OCED,US Dept of energy, NASA
, Ceter of Disease Control, State and cities government, Taiwan Ministry of
Economic Affairs, Finance, Education, Taipei, Kaoshiung cities Academy of
Science, Information Technology research Institute)
Global Banking, finance, insurance:
JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup, UBS, Merrial Lynch, Goldman Sach, State Street,
Fidelity, Bank of
America, Wells Fargo, Mizuho, Prudential, ManuLife, Cathy Life ,CNA, J Hancock , Lehman, Bloomberg,
Dow Jones. Reuter, Wall Street Journal, Business Week
Corporate :
McKinsey, Ernest Young, KPMG, IBM, HP, Compaq, NEC, CISCO, Intel, AMD, Nokia, Taiwan
Semiconductors, UMC, Honhai, Motorola, Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell, Aramco, Dupont, Dow, ORCL,
Boeing, GM, BMW, Honda, Samsung, Ford), Merck, Amgen, Johnson, Celera, Weth)
Academic :
Northwestern, Harvard, Stanford, Duke, MIT, Princeton, UC Berkeley, UCSF, UCSD,
Pensilvania, , Columbia, Chicago, Cornell, Cambridge, London) from 70 countries
Services: Workshops , your
in-house global currency daily trading strategy On the Job Training workshops /
memberships program for CFO, currency traders: OSA Currency Risks Strategic,
execution teams. All supported by simulation charts for training simulators.
Global Currecny Risk Operations Simulation Analysis, Forecasts Annual Memberships
These tailored made
global corporate currency OSA memberships services include:
(for each currency of your choice)
A. Conduct brainstorming real options operations review, collect of past operating history
B. Developing Real Options Currency OSA risk simulation and control
decision analysis models
C. Organize goal , mission, performance oriented real options strategic, execution OSA
teams
tracking, improving the currecny trading performance, meeting the goal .
D. 4 free on the job training workshops for entry level and senior executive
supported by ten free simulation charts (for the single currency of your choice)
tracking full year operations
E. One full year weekly free email currency trading risk management consulting
This membership is designed for supporting :
1. Global central bankers and financial institution banking, financial crisis simulation,
risk management
2. Global securities, investment , investment banking, mutual fund firm
3. Global Money Markets interest rates, bond
4. Global Currency Markets, bankinig, finance, corporate exchange rates traders
5. Financial derivaties, hedging,(options, swaps)
6. Global government, state enterprises reform, restructuring, reengineering
For each of the membership you selected, :
A.Weekly email services for the following weeks decision support on monetary policy
and currency markets investment strategy simulations
B;OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will Setup your goal, mission, performence oriented
OSA teams
for you, provide on the job decision analysis training of your top and entry level
staff.
C.OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang will offer quarterly free OSA strategic workshops
References
1. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery
and Risk Management", presented to Int'l Central Bank Governors Conference on Policy
to Sustainable Growth, May 14-15, 1999, Macao, Organized by China Peoples Bank governor
Dai and Monetary Authority of Macao, Hong Kong, central governors governors from Japan,
England, Thailand, Philippines , IMF
2. Huang, W, Government and Business Operations Simulations based Global Risk Management
presented to Government and Business Strategy conference in Capital Hilton, Washington DC,
June 30, 1999 ,with combined Global financial Crisis panel discussions(including IMF,
World Bank, Oxford Economics and S &P DRI, Goldman Sachs, Agricultural economics
research directors
3. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Real Time simulation of global financial crisis, Recovery impact on
post EURO capital markets price and risk management , presented to European Finance
Conference, Barcelona, Spain, June 4, 1999 http://www.fma.org/barcelprog.htm#13
4. David Walker( Georgetown University), Huang, W, and IMF director, Brazil Insurance
Research Director Panel Discussion on emerging markets economy and crisis
http://www.fma.org/barcelspecial.htm#15
5. Huang, W." Simulation of Monetary Policy Impact on Global Financial Crisis, US
financial Markets and Risk Management", presented to Washington DC area Finance
Conference, Apr. 30, 1999, Fairfax, Va.
6. Huang, W, Ji X., M. " Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on
Pacific Basin capital, Derivatives markets prices ,risk management ", presented to 7
Th Pacific Basin Finance Economic Conference, Taipei, Taiwan, May 28-29, 1999 , presided
by Taiwan president Lee, central bank governor Peng, finance minister Chiu
7. Huang, W, Ji, X. M " Simulation of global financial crisis impact on Multinational
Corporate Finance Performance"
presented to Multinational Finance Conference, Toronto, Canada July 7,1999
8. Huang, W,." Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on EURO Capital
Markets Risks Management"
presented to UK Royal Statistics Society Risk Management Conference , Warwick, UK, July
14, 1999
9. Huang, W, Ji, X. M Real Time simulation of global financial crisis impact on South
American financial markets and Risk Management" presented to Conference on new idea,
Mexico City, Mexico, Aug, 14-18
10. www.osawh.com daily tracking Simulation of ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America
Financial crisis, recovery impact on global deflation, credit crunch impact on Global
Financial Markets, Import/Export, risks simulation and investment strategy
11. Huang, W, Ji, X. M.,"Real Time simulation of Asian, Russia Financial Crisis
Impact on Post EURO financial markets" presented to finance , banking conference on
post EURO finance, banking strategy, Nov.-27, 1998, Rome
12. Huang, W. Asian Financial Crisis Impact on Financial Derivatives Prices Simulation ,
Accepted by QFM98, Computational Methods in Financial Derivatives Conference, Dec. 16,
1998, Sydney, Australia,
12. Huang, W.. Financial crisis impact on global Financial Markets prices performance
presented to EC2, Econometrics Forecasting Conference Dec.19, 1998, Stockholm, Sweden, www.hhs.se/stat/workshops/ec2/
Website : www.osawh.com email: whuang@osawh.com / whuang3928@aol.com
Contact : Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer, Tel 1-510-524-0283 Fax 1-510-524-4484 (USA
2001 Copyright osawh.com/ Dr. Warren
Huang 2001 osawh.com/ 黃華南博士版權所有
Fed recent aggressive buy treasury to cut interest for 30 year mortgage by 1 % to 4.6 % and near term bond yield to negative, with possible 0.5 % fund rate cut, will further weaken dollar strength to EURO , as strong dollar hurt US export in global recession., we expect EURO to 1.37–1.45 As US approaching negative interest rate vs Japan zero interest, further boost Yen to 85- 90. However overvalued Yen already hurt Japan export, down 50 % drag economy into deep recession (GDP - 15.2 % 1Q 2009 ). Yen strength is peaking out soon replaced buy EURO, with only - 3. % GDP.
details www.osawh.com/currency.html www.osawh.com/macro.html