Proactive Strategic Basel II credit risks control : consumer, business credit rating, defaults risks monitoring, models minimize loss and capital for internal auditing, business cycles, interest rate risks simulation early warning

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Proactive Global Strategic Basel II credit risks monitoring, risks predictive control simulation, models quantify, forecasts, Internal Credit, auditing control for credit default early warning , tracking, causes, onset, spread, recovery of 20 years global financial, currency crisis credit default, , business cycles, credit derivatives, CDS spread pricing risks ( executives workshop)
Supported by Global economic, business cycle, daily capital markets asset prices , bubble simulation, forecasts for Basel II credit risks OSA- Consumer and Business- Credit demand, default, delinquency monitoring, simulation forecasts predictive risks control-and Credit Derivatives , CDS spread Pricing, Risk transfer operations simulation analysis

Global Country, Banking, Finance, Corporate, Credit Default Risks Simulation,
Thousands structural, dynamic, deterministic cause, effect, response models simulators tracking, simulate, quantify, forecast consumer behavior, business credit default, internal auditing , corporate scandals , Basel II credits, business cycle, interest rate risks monitoring, simulation, predictive control, the root causes, onset, recovery of global nonperformance loan, credit defaults( early warning for Bubble Burst impact on ENRON, WCOM, Guanxia NPL)

Credit card,, prime, subprime residential and commercial mortgage loan default simulation/forecasts

By two master hands controlling global asset prices mechanism pioneer Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional housing price slump 30-50 % and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through 2009 drag economy into 2009 double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000- NASDAQ PLUNGE testing 1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing correction, with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90 %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen, commodity prices doubled, and bubble burst plunge 50 % in recession ,soaring bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out, despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 1700 rebound to 3200 in 2009 overheated in the first half due to 568 billion economic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 25 %, fixed investment from 22 to 33 %., oil price rebound from 33 to 72 summer 2009, and plunge to 55, due to soaring jobless rate and falling housing price resulted deep recession continue through 2009.
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious) speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic recovery by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing L- shape slow recession recovery

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- November 17, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Based on my 30 years proactive structural simulation of last 30 years global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on inflation, interest rateas, currency, commodities, equities, bond, housing asset prices, It correlation constant ot 0.95, error of 3.5 %,
accurately predicted last 30 years asset price boom and bust, and current US housing prices bubble burst resulted equities, commodity, oil, asset price 50- 70 % plunge, asset bubble burst, drag economy into recession details on www.osawh.com/recession.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/SP500.htm

What is wrong with current credit rating and risks reporting, estimation: Wall Street Journal Market beat, Sept. 24,2007 by Dr. Warren Huang

Greenspan is right that rating agency 50 year old rating method is partly to blame for current crisis.
However the financial markets analyst and fund managers are still using 30 year asset pricing, probabilistic, Monte Carlo quantitative models for asset performance, pricing and default risk management, and trust credit rating agency methods, lead to last 20 years global financial, currency , bond crisis.
What we needed is proactive structural forecast tracking monetary policy , interest rate impact on asset pricing, credit rating, risks early warning. I have develop, implemented for tracking last 20 years global financial crisis.details can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.doc

Comment by Warren Huang - September 24, 2007 at 6:59 pm

The current global corporate and ABS underling collateral debt, equities, properties asset    (home equities, auto, loan, credit cards) and syndicated loan ( process plant equipments )prices credit risk rating systems are based on scorecard, qualitative interview on past financial, business, economic, defaults probabilistic, sales, profit, credit information , failed to simulate, tracking , predict the global economic, business, product cycle impact on loan demand, industrial demand, prices, profits, securities credit performance While OSA simulators predicted( presented to 2000-2001 global central banks governors , financial risks management conferences and May 2002 global corporate governance at Peking University, Beijin and Sept 30, ABS conference in Kuala Lumpur, that energy and high tech bubble burst early in Jan 2000 and again in Aug 2001 will lead to ENRON, GBLX, WCOM huge loss, stock prices plunged 90 % predicted May 28-29 that global stock, fund made 30-50 % correction, ABS will be downgraded and facing defaults , while conventional credit rating misled by corporate scandals downgrade after corporate nearing bankruptcy ( ENRON downgrade from investment grade December 2001, after Nov. stocks plunged from 84 to below one dollar and company announcing intention for bankruptcy) resulted chasing the markets. announced 502 ABS downsgrade after 20 issues defaults in Sept. 2002

Trillion dollar Nonperformance assets Management, workshops, sponsored by Peking Univeristy Guahua School of Management, Executive Develpement Dec 5-6, 2002, Beijin zhoucs@gsm.pku.edu.cn
OSA maximize nonperformance debt, equities, property asset performance, value recovery, pre- warning for future NPL workshops tracking the causes, onset, recovery, prevent of assets bubble burst reserve your in-house workshops email wh3928@yahoo.com

click www.Moodys.com for Moody credit rating
click www.standardandpoors.com for Standard and Poors credit rating
While OSA credit simulation provide forward looking, leading the market 1 to 3 month through structured, deterministic, dynamic simulation of global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global economy, consumer, business spending, interest rate, currency, commodity, financial futures,
industrial sectors demand, prices, corporate sales, profit, cash flow, debt, stock prices, properties loan, auto loan, credit card and syndicated loan pricing, demand, defaults.
Dr. Warren Huang, OSA pioneer of two master hands thousands structural dynamic quantitative models simulators tracking, forecasts controlling global macro economy, business cycles and daily capital market interest rates, currency, asset prices Dr. Warren Huang has develop, implemented thousands structural, dynamic causes and effect, response simulators tracking, simulate, forecast, accurately predicted months ahead monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on global economic, business cycles, the root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of last 20 years global macroeconomic control, daily capital market asset prices, asset allocation, interest rates, business cycles, liquidity, market, credit, operational risk control, avoided trillion dollar market loss, offered thousands investment strategy and risk management for thousands US, Taiwan, China, Asian central banks, banking, securities, SOE, SME companies CEO, CFO, fund managers, trade, risks managers and 30 million China, Taiwan, US 15 cities TV, radio banking, finance, executives, investors tracking daily stocks , currency, bond commodities prices , investment strategy, risks control, invited to speak to ECB, FRB, UK, China Peoples Bank, Taiwan, Asian 24 global central banks governors, IMF, BIS financial risks management, econometric, wealth management conferences to speak on "Asset Prices Simulation, forecasts, early warning for last 20 years Global Financial, Banking Crisis, Recovery, economic, business cycles, interest, currency , liquidity , Market, Credit, Operational Risk Management for financial markets speculation bubble   since 1998, published 20 English articles on US Oils & Gas Journals and US Hydrocarbon Processing Advanced control and information systems handbook 1991-2003 , for 1600 multinationals from 78 countries, tracking ,simulate, forecast market forces demand, prices mechanism, market, credit, operational risks for oil, petrochemicals, upstream/downstream, end users 20 industrial sectors, 5000 products : www.osawh.com/hp2001h.html , and thousands Chinese articles for China, Taiwan, US daily newspapers, investment, economic, finance, trade journals supporting 15 cities, TV, radio station banking, finance, fund managers, investors global asset allocation, risks and profit control optimization
He predicted again 2003 Nov. 2003 to Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ with excellent feedback photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences, www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture 2 with excellent feedback from 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers, identify month ahead, investment opportunities in China ADR Hong Kong H shares, China A blue chip petrochemicals, SNP, telecommunication Unicom A shares and value investing China mutual shares up 80 %and and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. 2003 early warning for asset bubbles in energy, metals commodities prices doubled, reaching 19 year peak, ( invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %, mutual fund up 80 %) will drive China inflation to 4 %, China Peoples banks further credit tightening and rate hike( raised deposit ratio to 7.5 % Apr. 25, 2004)will drive GDP to 7 % in the second half despite first Quarter GDP of 9.4%, US entering second leg economic recovery due to excessive rate, tax cut , following last year third quarter first leg boom bubble corporate earning soared 76 % with overheated consumer over 100), investor confidence ( exceeds 1987) and ISM purchaser manager index over 66. while current quarter bubble with business confidence reaching 10 year high, consumer confidence will challenge 100 again, 370,000 new job created, soared consumer demand, housing start, durable orders will continue into third quarter and peaking out , bubble burst thereafter, second quarter bubble CPI to 3.2 %, core inflation to 3.8 % force China will follow Greenspan raise interest rate after May and summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation, inflation outlook, Global IT shares facing 30- 50 % correction and blue chips banking shares and its mutual fund facing correction 2004, Dow will be traded 9750- 10500, Nasdaq 1850- 2050 , Taiwan index 5360-5900, Henseng 11000- 14000, Nikkei 10000- 12500, . Shanghai A 1500- 1650, Shenzhen 3300- 3800, Euro : 1.18- 1.25 , Yen 108- 115, China slowdown will drag US, Asian and European recovery and stocks gave up all this year gain.Dr. Warren Huang presented to Peking University Global finance conference May 28-29, 2002, Beijin accurately predicted global stocks, mutual funds made 30-50 % correction and ABS downgrade, defaults and Kuala Lumpur ABS securitization conference, sponsored by Asian Business Forum Sept. 30 , 2002, OSA simulation of monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on US consumer, business demand and stocks, fund, bond, ABS credit rating, US citigroup, JP Morgan nonperformance loan, stocks prices,China, Japan,Taiwan, Malaysia Nonperformance loan, US , Hong Kong, Singapore cerdit card demand and delinquency rate, auto loan, sales, GM and Toyota earning, stock prices, WCOM and telecommunication industry stocks prices credit rating, chips demand, prices,

A Single Simulation Chart tells you one -three month ahead 25 years story about global monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on global economic, business cycle, daily financial market interest rate, currency, commodity, financial futures, derivatives, industrial demand, prices,, profit, stock prices, investment fund performance, risks, return, and unemployment, consumer, corporate loan credit quality, corporate scandals, defaults risks: impact on country, banking, finance, corporate debt (bond) credit risks in normal, crisis (1980, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1997-98 financial crisis, 2001-2002 recession ),under stress one month ahead. Have trained risk management for 30 million global government, banking, finance corporate CEO, CFO, financial, fund, 200,000 import/ exporter managers and presented to 50 int'l government, central banks policy, banking, finance, risk management conferences
These structural, deterministic, bottom-up forward-looking real options credit risks dynamic Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) of monetary policy, multiple shocks impact on global macro, financial, trade, industrial economics, tracking accurately last 20 years US, European, ASEAN, Asian, Russia, South America, Mexico nonperformance loan, defaults due to energy, currency, financial and banking crisis impact on corporate earning, stocks, real estate bond prices, high quality, and junk bond yield spread against 30 yr. treasury bond with average error Below 1.5 %, correlation constants above 0.95 ( without statistics probability inputs as required in existing VaR models )

Goal, mission, performance oriented credit risks Real Options Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic, execution teams, develop, implement thousands of neural net expert systems based structural bottom up credit Risks Dynamics Simulation Deterministic Models tracking last 20 years global central banks monetary policy and oil price, currency, capital flow speculative attacks shocks , wealth effect impact on daily global:

Money Markets: Short term, long term interest rate, loan demand, defaults ,bonds prices and spreads simulation
Currency Market: Interest rate spread, trade deficit impact on global currency simulation
Equities markets: Industrial sectors demand prices, profit, stock prices performance, bubble burst risks simulation, control: Corporate earning and stocks, bond, real estate , mutual fund performance simulation forecasts prices: corporate costs, prices, inventory and merger/acquisition profit margins , IPO and stock , bond, prices, bond yield spread, corporate loan defaults, credit risks simulation
Asset Prices simulation, securitization performance and risk control
Office, residence properties loan demand prices, bubble burst risks Inflation, commodity prices, interest rate impact on office, residential prices , unemployment rate, impact on personal load demand, defaults, Commodity and financial derivatives prices hedging simulation : Monetary policy impact on interest rate, currency, stocks, bond, prices, yield integrated into Black-Schole formulas for call/put option simulation supported hedging risk control.
Developed, implemented, supported by OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang out of his 30 year global strategic procurement, financial markets investment risks management simulation, control experience for US multinational headquarters (Mobil, AMOCO, Phillips Petroleum, Rhone Poulenc, Bailey network control), Bechtel and Taiwan, China, ASEAN, Asian governments, trade, state and private enterprises corporate, banking finance industry consulting, on the job training for 20 million CEO, CFO, fund, procurement, trade managers in coping last 20 years financial, banking crisis
Click here for global interest rate, currency market loses related credit risk