Chinese (中文)
UK Subprime , Prime,
mortgage, Credit, Financial Crisis Recession causes ,Rate cuts, Bail out Impact on Housing Industry Demand,
Prices and Credit Default Mechanism, 2009 macroeconomics, currency,
equities, housing, commodites , derivatives asset bubbles prices burst simulations
Multiclass Fund asset allocation and markets rIsks, mortgage
crisis early warning workshops
A.
Challenges
and Risks:
Greater
China,
Asian,US,
UK
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
interest rates, currency, Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and
Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , resulted
trillion dollar banking, finance, subprime, mortgage, Credit
crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on
Recession and
Phase II Global deep recession impact on
housing price slump and trillion dollars banking, credit, financial
crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating
loss
for recessions,
housing, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction,
credit
default,
equities,
currency
market risks
B. Opportunities: China /US/UK banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative financial products, and China 568 billion dollar infrastructure stimulus plan and 10 industrial sectors stimulus plan impact on China 2009 economic recovery, stock market rebound.
US 8
trillion dollar bail out for housing, banking, finance and trillion
economic stimulus, renewal energy, healthcare, high way, school
construction, tax rebate, job creation
impact on economic recovery and listed companies earning, stock prices markets for Sovereign Wealth Fund,
QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual
fund,
Optimal Equities, Commodities,
Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA,
long/short allocation, performances,
real
time commodity,
financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage,
hedge , pension
fund strategic
wealth management(
presented to
China Peoples Bank, 24 global central banks governors, risk management
confernces since 1999)
Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation
of last 20 years China/US/UK, Asian
Mortgage Defaults Crisis,
Macro-economic inflationary recession, unemplyment targeting, Monetary interest rate
policy Impact on mortgage rate, Emerging bull/bear stocks and
housing market trend , Prices Bubbles burst, Mortgage
Loan Credit rating, Prepayment, Defaults, Recovery Modeling, Bond Spread, credit derivaitves pricing in Assets Securitization,
Risks Hedging
San Francisco, New York in-house workshops
by reservation at your convenient time
your office
wh3928@yahoo.com
conducted by Dr.
Warren Huang, Pioneer, Global Strategic Management OSA
Preparing for Macroeconomic control,
rate cuts, global commodities, housing, equities price bubbles burst, Housing Market Credit Crunch, Mortgage Default Crisis Early Warning
Strategic PGFCR : Proactive Global Housing, Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead of lat 30 years and current housing, equities, commodities , MBS, ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss, deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial, industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital market asset price mechanisms
Do
not miss
on
2009 China/US/UK economic, financial market
outlook Trillion
Dollar Recession Hedge Optimal long-short strategy
lectures
by Dr.
Warren Huang lectures, panelist speakers on financial crisis,
recession strategy Feb, March Hong Kong, Pudong QFII/QDII
summit conferences 2009
short ,ultra short strategy
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and
Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit
crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on
Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial
crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating
loss
for
Asian private equities,
leverage finance acquisition summit , Feb 16- 17, Hong, Kong
by Euromoney
China
Derivatives, Summit Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession Risks Derivatives Hedging 2009
Conference,
Pudong, China, March, 2009
by
EUROMONEY
Trillion Dollar Recession Risks
Hedging 2009
Conference, Pudong, China, March, 2009
program China
China/US 2009 Housing, Financial Crisis
Impact on Recession,, and Recession
, Economic Stimulus
Impact on Economy , Capital Markets Forecast by
Dr. Warren Huang
Proactive Structural Trillion Dollar Recession Hedging, Multiclass Asset,
Derivatives
Allocation Strategy
by Dr. Warren Huang website:
www.osawh.com
Hyatt Regency, Pudong,
Shanghai, Mar24- 25, 2009
and
Global/China multiclass (Oil, commodity,
Equities, Bond, Housing Asset pricing and allocation
by
World Renown Proactive Structural
Asset Pricing pioneer
Dr. Warren Huang
Post-
Conference Master Class Strategic
Multi-class Asset Allocation
Workshop, Terrapinn
Chinese
Proactive
Structural Multiclass Asset Prices Mechanism and China/Global
Fund World,
Asset
Allocation 2008,- 2009
by
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer OSA Global Strategic Management
Proactive Recession Strategy
Shangri-La Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai, Mar
4- 6, 2008
Reservation
for your in
house workshop
osawhh@sina.com/
wh3928@yahoo.com
risk management panelist and
planned
full day master class workshop lecturer for
Terrapinn China Fund World 2008
conference, offer Proactive structural
China/global asset
pricing, 2008, credit tightening, recession impact on
Energy, Commodity, multi-calss assets long-short hedging, asset allocation strategy to
150 China/Global fund manager, investment bank CEO, executive, China QFII/QDII
executives
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset
Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street
Journal Economic, Market Beat
Blog Aug.2007 that US and Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge
30 % into 2009 ( with
Dec . 2008 20 city Schiller
price index down 19 %
http://www.slideshare.net/hblodget/october-case-shiller-home-price-index-presentation
), with medium price plunge 26.6 % fro 2006 peak ,drag US and global economy into 1980
style deep double dip recession stocks bond,
oil, commodities,
metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50
-70 % Price Correction
Cause
Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic
Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices
plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones
after current consolidate in 7000-8000- 9000 will test
6000- 7000, NASDAQ test
1100- 1250, S&P test
600- 700 low,
oil price plunged 50 -70 % from 147 to
30,Gas
oil from 1300 to 500 , corn from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to
44 )as global economy enter deep recession
through 2009,
despite rate cuts to zero, US700 billion and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out
to stabilize credit
crisis
, there is no economic recovery till late 2009,
even with US trillions dollar mortgage MBS, bail out and
infrastructure job creation program. US spend 8 trillion bailout
fighting crisis , recession
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106403/The-8-Trillion-Bailout
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=2
Comment
by Wall Street Journal
Market Beat- Blog
January 23, 2009 at
2:23 pm
We have been through Phase I monetary,
economic, fiscal policy impact on Global Housing, Equities,
Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism
and Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit
crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on Recession which causes
housing price down 19 %,trillions dolllar fiancial market loss,
bankruptcy of Lehman, AIG Fannie Mae Freddie, Merrill Lynch and
Citigroup with deep recession -5 % GDP adn 7.2 % unemployment and
now
we are entering Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit,
financial crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and
operating loss with jobless rate at 8- 9 % and business, consumer
spending over 5 %,
will drag stock price for 20 % more correction resulted widening
mortgage, credit card, business loan loss will drag Bank of America
16 billion dollar loss even JP Morgan and more banking, financials
into widening lossdetails on
http://www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm
http://www.osawh.com/recession.html
http://www.osawh.com/macro.html
http://www.osawh.com/SP500.ht
Trillion dollar housing recession hedge by Dr. Warren Huang
Challenges and Investment opportunities,
risks in 2009 China/US/UK housing prices bubbles
burst impact on
inflationary recession, stocks, fund, commodities markets outlook
Dr. Warren Huang
will
be the keynote speaker on 2009 US recession, credit, financial
crisis outlook and China Infrastructure Program to boost domestic
demand in fighting the global recession and crisis and panelist on
Challenges on China onshore, offshore derivatives markets
HE was the full day master
class workshop lecturer for Terrapinn Fund World China 2008
conference, Shanghai Pudong Shangri-La hotel, March 6 offer Proactive
structural China/global asset pricing,
2008 credit tightening, recession impact on BRIC,Optimal 1xx/xx
long-short hedging, asset allocation
strategy 2008
We will provide
5 -day monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, inflation/
Find out breakthrough innovation in proactive structural strategic financial
decision analysis through artificial
intelligence, neural net based expert systems macro, financial, industrial
pricing econometrics integration, simulation and
extension to Engle's Exponential GARCH dynamic times series estimation
co-integration into Granger Causes and Casualty analysis of US
housing, equities, currency, commodities price bubbles, tracking the causes,
onset, recovery, early warning of US/China, global central banks monetary interest rate
policy impact on macroeconomic control inflation, un-employment, housing mortgage crisis, global
housing, equities
, currencies, commodities prices, mortgage rate, nationwide major
cities, counties, trenches housing, demand, new and existing housing prices ,
associated prime, and sub-prime loan credit rating, pre- payment, default,
recovery modeling, ABS, CRE, RMBS, CDO bond spread, hedging fund strategy.
US Fed and Global
central banks, economist, banking, financial, mortgage loan and commercial, investment
banking , hedging fund managers, markets analysts
have been ignoring Dr. Warren Huang
warning on Asset Prices Bubbles at Kula Lumpur, Sept.
2002 to Malaysia central banks Asset Based Securitization
( ABS/MBS) conference, Singapore, Nov. 5, Nov 25, 2003 Shanghai Euro-events
Asian /US/China Finance, Capital Market
conferences and China economist annual meeting, Fudan University,
Shanghai lecture Dec. 2003 on
Monetary Policy impact on US/Asian/China economic
outlook, capital market housing, stocks, commodities, debt asset prices bubbles
and workshops in San Francisco Silicon Valley , US, May 8, 15 , 2004, and
Nov. 2005 in Beijin China Oil Market conference,
June 2007 Peking University
Financial Risk Management conference lecture,
www.osawh.com
and on Wall Street Journal energy blog, real time economy blog and market beat
blog since Aug 2, 2007 warned
underestimated again on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive
rate, tax cuts resulted soaring consumer , housing, auto, business demand drive
oil , commodities, metals housing prices bubbles to 23 year high and
soaring inflation, excessive wealth gain resulted excess liquidity, facing credit tightening, rate hikes, widening bond spread, suffered trillion dollar loss
in bond and stock, housing bubble burst , rate cuts, bail out can not stop credit crunch and loan
default and drag economic into recession, ABS, RMBS, CDO asset
credit and performance downgrade, hedge fund failure through
2008.
www.osawh.com/ABS.html
Workshops Goal : OSA forecasts
maximize risks adjusted return in US/UK/China housing markets and ABS, RMBS, CDO investments , default
risks early warning fighting housing market recession, credit
crunch, avoided banking , housing, equities, commodities, markets
trillion dollars assets downgrade, value loss
in economic recession.
Workshops Mission:
Setup goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, executive OSA teams,
develop, implement proactive, structural global central banks
monetary policy guidance and control in macro, financial, housing
, energy market economy market forces demand, prices mechanism and loan and ABS assets,
credit rating, prepayment, default, recovery modeling Operations
Simulation Analysis (OSA) strategic investment, forecasts
month ahead, of the emerging credit default, recession trend,
crisis impact on global currency, commodities, equities, bond prices
investment strategy and risks hedging early warning, avoided trillion dollar
housing and global equities allocation investment and markets default
loss.
Workshops
Highlights: The what , why, how and
timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of equities, housing,
commodities asset prices bubble burst, mortgage default , credit,
financial crisis,
recession, bear market correction tracking regulation AB for ABS RMBS, CDO pooled asset credit rating and performance, default, global assets allocations,
with 2008 forecast.
5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
, Credit,Crisis Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk
management Early Warning
5 Day US Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
credit,Crisis
Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management
Crisis Early Warning
5 Day UK Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control and Default
credit,Crisis
Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management
Early Warning
US Macroeconomic, rate cuts , housing , equities, commodities bubble control and Default
credit, Crisis
Recession Impact and strategic investment, risk management Early Warning
Day One:
A.
Challenges
and Risks:
Greater
China,
Asian,US
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and
Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , resulted
trillion dollar banking, finance, subprime, mortgage, Credit
crisis, Financial , Systemic Risks impact on
Recession and
Phase II Global deep recession impact on
housing price slump and trillion dollars banking, credit, financial
crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating
loss
for recessions,
housing, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction,
credit
default,
equities,
currency
market risks
B. Opportunities: China /US banking, finance, capital markets reform for China/global innovative financial products, and China 568 billion dollar infrastructure stimulus plan and 10 industrial sectors stimulus plan impact on China 2009 economic recovery, stock market rebound.
US 8 trillion dollar bail out for housing, banking, finance and trillion economic stimulus, renewal energy, healthcare, high way, school construction, tax rebate, job creation impact on economic recovery and listed companies earning, stock prices markets for Sovereign Wealth Fund, QFII/QDII investment banking IPO, M/A, ETF, BRIC, Indexing mutual fund, Optimal Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, long/short allocation, performances, real time commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, hedge , pension fund strategic wealth management
UK Macroeconomic rate cuts, fiscal bail out,
stimulus plan impact , currency,
inflation risks, boom and bust cycle credit crisis, recession OSA, Forecasts
morning:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Macroeconomic growth , housing, equities asset prices
bubble , inflation control
and dollar currency depreciation OSA
* Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and EGARCH Granger co-integrations
of UK Bank of England macroeconomic control rate cut solving sub-prime and prime
mortgage credit
crunch, bail out coping stock, housing bubble
wealth gain and trillion dollar burst wealth loss tracking money supply, interest rate, dollar currency impact on housing, stock prices bubbles,
consumer, business spending,
inflation rate, un-employment rate and inflation rate
* Monetary policy, oil prices, currency, consumer, business spending impact
on inflation rate, GDP, interest rates
Afternoon:
Monetary Policy Trilemma: Currency depreciation and DFI outflow,
market excessive
liquidity
* Interest rate and trade balance impact on daily China RMB, and
Yen, EURO, Pound exchange rates and currency carry trade DFI in asset price
speculation.
* Interest rate, credit tightening impact on asset prices bubble burst , mortgage
default
and mortgage default impact on inflation, GDP, unemployment, recession
Day two: Housing Industry Price Bubble Growth , Control and Burst, mortgage
loan, credit default, credit, financial crisis CRE, RMBS, default OSA
Morning:
UK central bank monetary , fiscal, economic policy impact on national,
London, regional housing demand and prices
mechanism
*UK Monetary Policy macroeconomic control , rate policy
impact on removing excessive asset market liquidity and cool off the
overheated housing price bubble and inflation
.
Afternoon:
UK housing bubble burst, loan , credit default financial crisis impact
on stock market crash, economic
recession early warning
UK EURO, pound ,Yen dollar , monetary, economic, fiscal policy, stock markets price bubble
burst , unemployment impact on
UK London coastal area housing sales, and
prices OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural UK housing personal, corporate, ABS, RMBS, loan credit rating,
securitization asset performance,
prepayment, sub-prime and high end
mortgage loan default and induced stock market crash and economic
recession early warning OSA
Day three: Excessive liquidity, housing demand, prices Impact on
Housing and downstream construction, building material Stock Price
Bubble Growth and Burst, Bear Market Correction and recovery OSA
Morning:
UK monetary policy impact on housing demand and prices, banking, finance,
construction and construction materials metal, cement industry demand performance
*UK Monetary Policy macroeconomic control raise rate 17 times
impact on removing excessive asset market liquidity and banking, finance
stock price performance
* UK rate cuts, bail out, stimulus plan impact on housing
loan, construction industry demand and prices.
Afternoon:
* UK dollar depreciation, monetary policy, stock markets price bubble,
unemployment, rate cuts impact on coastal area New Your, Miami, LA) housing, prices,
Dow Jones, S&P, NASDAQ stock indices future, price OSA forecast
^ Proactive structural UK housing personal, corporate loan credit rating,
prepayment, sub-prime and high end mortgage loan default and banking real estate stock performance early warning OSA
Day four: Consumer ,business, spending impact on housing on oil commodities
, metals upstream/downstream price bubble burst , demand,
profit, stock prices OSA
Morning:
UK monetary policy impact on construction material, energy, metal demand,
stock prices, OSA
*UK Monetary Policy macroeconomic , housing industry control
impact on housing, construction
material , steel, gold, copper, aluminum metal demand , prices .
* UK and global housing bubbles impact on oil, energy
downstream demand, prices.
Afternoon:
* UK monetary policy, consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and steel, metals companies profit ,stock
price
^ UK monetary policy, consumer, business spending impact on housing demand and energy, downstream companies
profit , stock price OSA
Day five : Proactive structural asset pricing, risks valuation macroeconomic systemic risks and credit, market risk
integration, credit, financial recession crisis early warning OSA
morning:
UK country macro-econometric inflation, currency systemic risk.
* UK Fed monetary policy, housing industry price control impact on
GDP, inflation and asset price bubbles
* UK monetary policy interest rate, trade impact on currency price
mechanism, carry trade money speculation .
Afternoon: Proactive Structural asset prices and risk valuation for crisis,
risks early warning
UK equities, bond, commodities, housing price bubbles burst associated market risks, and loan
default crisis
* UK housing and equities price bubbles bursts and housing,
equities, futures market price risks early warning
* UK twin bubbles burst impact on commercial and investment banking, asset
management loan credit default
risks and ABS, RMBS, CDO credit derivatives, hedging, betting on the wrong direction
resulted trillion dollar loss.
Who Should Attend : Central
banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, hedge fund
manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, securitization
managers, insurance managers, mutual fund , SWF fund managers, government
regulation strategic (top management) , execution (managers )
Workshop Costs/ Benefits Dr. Warren Huang round trip air
fares from San Francisco for full day and lecture fee workshop with unlimited attendees
Workshop recommendation will make trillion dollar profit and save billion dollars in betting on the wrong
direction of investment and default
risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset
prices bubbles burst
Reserve by email wh3928@yahoo.com
indicating your favorite time, your office address, and lists of
executives names, title
:Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat- February 8, 2008 at 12:39 pm
The trouble in sub-prime crisis are due to housing price slump from overpriced bubble in poor housing , equities, CDO valuation and credit rating method, which are based on 30 year old statistical, probabilistic models in pricing and default., betting on the wrong side of investment, over-optimistic over US inflation and economy and housing markets.
As I warned last June , 2007 Peking University, Beijing International Financial Engineering Risk Management Conference to top global investment, housing executives and on this blog last Sept before Fed rate cuts
that rate cuts, can not stop US housing price slump continue into 2008 summer, drag US and UK into recession, US and global stocks into bear market correction, with banking, finance, housing, shares down 50 %, -70 %IT, oil, retail and high fliers GOOG, AAPL, PTR , GS shares down 50 % Only my proactive structural dynamic simulation predicted months, years ahead of the emerging market trend avoided trillion dollar market loss details can be found on my one day full day workshop Mar.6, Pudong, Shanghai, China world fund 2008 www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm