US Sept. consumer confidence plunge to 38, ISM manufacturing purchaser index plunge to 43 and jobless rate to 6.1 % and Dow Jones plunged 40  % third quarter GDP contract 0.3 %core inflation up 2.9 %, warned, predict by me Sept. 2007 on this blog that US  housing slump continue , will entering double dip inflationary recession 3Q 2008 despite rate cuts, stimulus, bail out plan and extends into deeper recession contracting by 6 % in 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009,  resulted by  full impact o business, consumer spending decline due to 8.5 % jobless and 20 % housing slump, 40 % stocks market loss
  The real causes of current mortgage, credit, financial crisis and recession are due to poor financial, monetary policy decision modeling in asset pricing and  risks valuation mechanism, MBS, CDO , the burst of super housing, commodities asset price bubbles caused by 7 year longest expansive excessive money supply, easy credit policy .
Global central banks, financial markets financial decision still rely on 30 year old probabilistic, statistical Capital Market Asset Pricing (CAPM) and macroeconomic modeling, ignoring asset price impact on inflation and financial, housing , MBS, CDO prices.
Predicted by Dr. Warren Huang, pioneer of Proactive Global Asset Pricing Mechanism , June 2007 , Beijing, Wall Street Journal Economic, Market Beat
 Blog Aug.2007   and March 5, 2008 Pudong, China Fund World 2008 to 200 global top investment banking, fund managers that Global Housing price bubble burst, prices plunge 30 % into 2009, drag  global economy into recession and stocks bond, oil,  commodities, metals ,Derivative Asset Prices Bubbles Burst with 50 % Price Correction Cause Credit, Financial Crisis and Economic Recession, ( As Dow Jones, SP 500, NASDAQ drag global stock indices plunged more than 50 % into 2002 recession low ,( Dow Jones  after current consolidate in 8000- 9000 will test 7000, NASDAQ test 1250, S&P test 700 low, oil price plunged 50 % from 147 to 70，Gas oil from1300 to 700 , corn  from 800 to 350, cotton from 80 to 44 as global economy  enter deep recession by year  end, despite US 700 billion  and ECB 2.3 trillion bail out to stabilize credit crisis

details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/centmaf.html

  Demand side prices forecasts) OSA pioneer  Dr Warren Huang predicted May 2008 Proactive Structural Dynamic Demand Side future, cash Gold, METALS, Oil Price Simulation predicted early this year  rebound from 54 to 60- 65 in May 30- July 4 due to US tax rebate, weak dollar, in 2009  US and China    strategic reserve purchase for economic stimulus plan  increased holiday travel season gasoline, fuel oil demand in manufacturing  as ISM PMI index rebound from 33 to 42 ( China from 36 to 53), gold price will follow oil price challenge 990- 1000, copper challenge 250, aluminum challenge 0.79,  natural gas challenge 5- 6  this summer .  Dollar brief rebound due to US housing sale rebound result mortgage interest rate and 10 yr bond yield up 10 % , after July 4 th Global commodities, metal,( copper, zinc, aluminum ), oil, suffering from global deep recession, plunging consumer, business demand, facing bubble burst with price plunging 30- 50 % correction, oil price will go back  to 50, gold price testing 800- 900, copper back to 190- 210 . and rebound again  in the final quarter by weak dollar and US/China economic stimulus job creation plan 
Global stock indices will follow US Dow Jones, NASDAQ , SP500 for summer correction in W shape reflecting disappointment over progress of US and global stimulus impact on recession recovery starting June.
( By two master hands controlling global asset prices  mechanism pioneer  Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2009 drag economy into 2009  leading to 1980 style double dip deep recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market  50 - 70 % correction , Dow Jones test 6500-7000-  NASDAQ PLUNGE testing  1250- 1500 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing  correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 70- 90   %, dollar making to new low 90 Yen,   commodity prices doubled,  and bubble burst plunge 50 %- 70 % in recession widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump 30- 50 %, US  - 6.1 GDP contraction, and -10 to - 20 % contraction for Asian countries deep recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  1700  rebound to 2800 in  2009 overheated in the first half  due to 568 billion ecnomic stimulus, increased money supply from 15 % to 25 %, fixed investment from 22 to 30 %.
US stock market 30 % V- shape rebound from March 2009 low, leading to global stock price bubble appears again ( with Taiwan, China , Hong Kong, most serious)   speculating recession recovery due to overoptimistic over economic  recovery  by China/US stimulus package, are facing bubble burst in summer 2009 correction due to disappointing  L- shape  slow recession recoveryComment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat , Yahoo Finance Blog Aug 8, 2008  2008 11:26AM ; oil below 100 means trouble

Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008

I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market

correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary

recession will drag banking share further.

SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump

resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking share performance

details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm
　

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 17, 2:30 pm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May17, 2008   1.52pm and  osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 
Why oil price and oil stock lag

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm on oil price bubble impact on stock prices

US dollar outlook and its impact on industrial sectors  performance,  

Fed is pleasing every one in the Wall Street and global capital and housing markets by offering surprise half point cut, even Greenspan in 2001 dare not to  do it when the oil price was only 19 dollar and gold

price below 400.Dow Jones shot up 350 points heading for record 14000 again , certainly will boost the housing prices ( July housing price  already up 5 %),and It cut mortgage rate and lending cost by half point.

bail out the sub-prime rate reset cost, will  temporarily cut mortgage default rate ( according to my housing prices and default rate model) but it will led to dollar plunge  to new low 1.50, it will hit 1.60 sometime next

year.    Oil price already celebrating the rate cut, by shooting to 82.4 all time  high and heading for 85-100, gold already 735, shooting for 950  soybean heading for 1200  wheat to 990., eventually will  spread i

core inflation.

As Fed job only focus on inflation ( core inflation rate exclude energy and food price) and unemployment it ignore housing, stocks, commodities asset prices bubbles. But sooner or later, the current stocks price

will not be sustainable, start to  plunge, it will drag the housing prices, and led to more default, the burst of next housing bubble,  drag economic into  recession till 2008 summer ,can not be solved by any rate cuts

Greenspan was much luckier than Benanke, he could go ahead with full steam rate cut, but we will be facing inflationary recession bear market correction ahead     

 detail can be found on www.osawh.com/riskm.html
　

Dot miss Challenges and Investment opportunities, risks in 2008 09 China credit tightening US housing prices bubbles burst impact on inflationary recession S&P 500 index futures and component  stocks, fund, housing, energy,commodities markets outlook

Conducted by          :Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士),  Pioneer of Proactive Structural Real Time Economic, Capital Markets Operations Simulations Analysis (OSA)

Masterclass goal   Provide QFII / QDII fund managers the what, why, how and timing of China/Global fund , S&P 500 indices, market fundamental asset price mechanism, allocation strategy, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging, market trends, avoided trillions market loss, betting on the wrong side of investment.

Mission:               Implement Proactive, Structural Dynamic Greater China/Global Equities, Bond, Currency Commodities Futures, S&P 500 futures, Derivatives prices mechanism for online trading, arbitrage, housing prices, and   Optimal  Long-Short Strategy for index futures fund challenges, opportunities in 2008-09.

Session 1 Proactive Structural OSA  of  2008-09  China/Global  Economy, Finance, Capital Market Challenges, Opportunities
　

A.       Challenges and Risks:    Asian macroeconomic overheating, credit tightening, regulation, US credit crisis,  housing price slump , MBS/CDO widening loss, recessions, banking, finance, energy material sectors facing correction, credit default, equities, currency market risks and corporate scandals

B.       Opportunities: US banking, finance, capital markets reform for innovative financial products, markets for S&P 500 Indexing ETF arbitrage  mutual fund, Optimal Equities, Commodities, Housing, Bond , Currency Asset Pricing Mechanism OSA, allocation, performances, real time oil, commodity, financial futures, derivatives trading, arbitrage, hedge , pension fund  strategic wealth management

Session 2 Proactive Structural  (OSA)  hedging strategy integrate economic, sectors, business news, fundamentals into quantitative S&P 500 index futures performance models

A.    Monetary, economic policy impact on China/US/Global inflation, interest rate, and global currencies, oil , metals housing market prices mechanism  2008-09 forecast
B.  Monetary policy, housing prices, currencies speculation impact on  S&P 500  Index, ETF fund , US credit crisis impact on global financial markets,   price performances2008 forecasts for optimal QFII/QDII  long/short  hedging strategy  
                      
Session 3  Proactive Structural China/Global industrial sectors demand, price mechanism and S&P 500 component industrial demand, pricing and corporate performance 2008-09  OSA  optimal long-short hedging strategy

A.      Macroeconomic and  housing prices excessive liquidity control policy, wealth effect impact on China/US/global national, regional housing demand, prices, mortgage default, banking, housing and construction  materials,  sector stock price performances,.
B.   US housing price slump , credit crisis  impact on US economic recession,  and China/global oil downstream, auto, IT sectors demand slowdown, stock prices performances and optimal long-short strategy

Session 4  Strategic government, S&P 500 QFII/QDII funds asset pricing,  allocation,optimal long-short strategy  risks early warning case studies

A.     Proactive structural strategy in banking finance, mortgage default impact write down forecast. , ultra  long/short financials
B.  S&P 500 future index prices and component  industrial sectors, stock prices forecast OSA, and ultra short S&P500 investment,  risks hedging.
C.   

Proactive Structural global housing price bubble burst Operation Simulation Analysis Workshops Highlights: The what , why, how and timing of root causes, onset, recovery, early warning of

equities, housing, commodities bubble burst, mortgage credit, default , financial crisis, tracking financial systems stability regulation AB for ABS, CMBS, RMBS, CDO pooled asset

credit rating and REIT fund performance, default, global assets allocations, with 2008-9  forecast. 

Do not miss our in-house trillion dollar recession strategy workshops

Master Class Proactive structural simulation forecast of  Dow Jones  index futures and component stocks investment workshop, 
Master Class Proactive structural simulation forecast of  NASDAQ index futures and component stocks investmentworkshop
5 -Day Workshop : Global Interest rate, Dollar, Stock Indices, Oil, Gold, Metals and Housing, Equities Bubbles price Forecast , Long-Short strategy
,  5 Day China Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning Workshop
5 Day  Asian Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning Workshop
5 Day  US  Macroeconomic, Housing , equities bubble control  and Default Crisis Early Warning  Workshop
5 Day UK Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning  Workshop
5 Day EU  Macroeconomic , housing, equities price bubble burst simulation, control, defaults early warning  Workshop