Phillipines  Asset Bubble and Monetary Policy Impact on Macroeconomic  and Financial Markets Risks OSA (Operations Simulation Analysis)
Singapore  Asian Financial Crisis, Economic Recession, Recovery Risk Management OSA
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Goal: Dynamic tracking simulation the root causes, onset, recovery  of  ASEAN currency crisis,  Asian financial crisis and US new economy bubble burst, EURO economic slowdown  impact on  Singapore macro GNP, inflation, export,  interest rates, currency,  stocks, commodity, electronics, products, properties prices impact on consumer and business spending, to predict, forecast overpriced asset prices resulted consumers spending imbalance and business profit slump due to central banks raising interest rates to cool off the economy, leading to bubble burst and abrupt change in consumer and business confidence caused stock prices plunges with average error below 1.5 %, correlation constant above 0.95.

>Monetary Policy on global stock prices,: Global stock prices and monetary policy impact on consumer and business spending. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on housing properties prices and rent Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on GDP macro-economics performance. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on procurement manager index Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on consumer and business confidence Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on saving rate. Global stock prices, monetary policy impact on corporatesupply  chain costs,  profit margin Global monetary policy, external shocks( commodities, oils prices, currency and credit default) impact on burst, burst, abrupt change of consumer, business confidence (Asian crisis, LTCM, US Nasdaq plunge, SOuth American crisis))

Dr. Warren Huang accurately predicted 1997 Thailand and ASEAN currency crisis and 1998 summer on osawh.com and Rome speech  that the falling oil, commodity prices and strong dollar will lead to  US  cut interest rates , to allowed  Asian coubntries cut interest rate to pre crisis level, stock rebound strongly lead to increased Thailand and  Asian export growth, consumer demand, and recovery. 
Dr. Huang also accurately predicted on 1999 May Macao central bank governors conference that US Fed will raise fund rate in June  1999 due to soaring stocks, properties, oil prices, which will take US stocks and Asian stock prices into minimum 15 % correction, and some internet stock with 50 -90 % corrections, Dow Jones will test 9,100, Nasdaq test  1500, Henseng test 12000, Nikkei test 12,000, Bangkok index down to 260, Taiwan index down to 4500 with  asset  bubble  simulation models on Macao's central bank governors conference, Taipei's Pacific Basin finance conference and Washington DC NASD conferences.during April and May 1999. and 2001 Asian Pacific Finance conference in Bangkok, July 24, and keynote speech on  Supply chain strategy conference/ workshop in Singapore, Apr 26-27
Phillipines OSA:
Phillipines  export  is benefited by  Asian recovery and US, EURO demand rebound in IT products   boosted it's  economic recovery, during 1999-2000. However it was effected by global slowdown, IT bubble burst. It still enjoyed  3 % GDP growth 3.2 % second quarter year 
Benefited by China , US recovery in 2004, enjoyed 6.2 % GDP growth, but hurting by soaring oil, metal prices, inflation at 6.3 % and widening trade deficit, industrial production only up 2 %, interest rate hike to  7.5 in fighting inflation
manufacturing  production index :recovering from SARS up 2 % due to strong     by US and Asian recovery 
 
Export : Benefited by strong US and China, Asian recovery demand, commodities prices pick 20 %    export growth at up 15 % from 4 % in 2000,However, US next year slowdown  will lead to  export slowdown, and falling   
Import : up due to rising oil, raw material import prices   in  computer, auto durable goods, retail sales and  , crude oils, import,
Trade Surplus :Facing deficit due to soaring oil prices increasing import  export decline
 Currency : Down  due to widening  trade deficit  will be traded between 53- 55
Stock Index :  recovering and consolidation to  1500-1750
Agricultural , Food prices: Up 15 % due to rising  global commodities prices   will be stabilize while fuel prices up 30 % in summer.
Inflation   up 6.5 % due to soaring oil, raw material prices
Interest rate:  7- 8 %
GDP growth rate %:  hurt by  soaring oil prices and export decline to   cut consumer spending  GDP, will be  4 %-  5 % 

These deterministic, dynamic simulation of last 20 years global asset prices, and economy boom and bust of the asset bubble vicious cycle of excessive monetary policy, low interest rate induced sustained long term bull markets stocks prices gain caused consumer and business spending in real estate properties pushed soaring housing prices and rent. And deficit spending (negative saving) in stock markets, pushed the stock s even higher, until abrupt reverse of consumer and investor confidence --the bubble burst- plunge of stocks and properties prices as it happened in US, Japan, Taiwan in 1980, 1987, 1990, energy crisis, EURO 1992 currency crisis, 1994 China runaway inflation, 1995 Mexico crisis, 1997-98 ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Russia, Brazil currency crisis, all caused by overpriced stock prices due to excess monetary policy and high GDP growth
USA        China      Thailand       Taiwan      Japan      Hong Kong     Korea        Singapore    Indonesia     Canada  Mexico