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OSA Market Today Blog: US markets continue slide to retracing July 15 loss, back filling consolidation in digesting tomorrow banking  bankruptcy, FNM trouble and Benanke comment on econoic difficulties in strained market, mounting job loss, slumping housing market continue and soaring inflation. by  Two master hands controlling global Capital  Markets  Opening/Closing, emerging bull/bear market trend  prices market forces mechanism
Dow Jones continue testing 10800-  10900 , drag banking stocks USB, FNM , investments, national and regional banks for new low
 

 Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price double, will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop sub-prime crisis spreading, regional  housing price slump 30-50 %  and credit crisis, crunch crisis continue through  2008 drag economy into 2009 double dip  inflationary recession resulted trillion housing and stock market loss and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 10000- 11000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % testing 2000-2200 and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low,   commodity prices doubled, widening bond , CDS spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund and government steps rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bail out,  despite Fed rate cuts . He also warned top global QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Banking housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550-  2750  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 110 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 40 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price doubled from 70 to 147. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled  
 Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal market beat blog  July 24, 2008 at 8:17 pm
I warned on Wall Street Journal market beat blog since last Sept and on this blog recently that despite AAPL timely introduced iphone for rebate check , it will facing slowdown in after school sale due to run out of rebate check spike and economic drag into recession by continued housing slump, credit crisis, consumer confidence, soaring oil, commodities and job cuts, stock market bear market correction
AAPL share will facing 30- 50 % correction. it plunged 17 % today in after hour trading!
I also warned that banking finance share facing continued credit crisis through the end of this year,  it will give up all its recent gain. American Express indicating sluggish 4 Q, stock price plunged 11 %.
So tomorrow market open , all indices  will be drag by these sectors, Banking, finance sharegive up last few days gain, Dow Jones retest 11000-11250, XLF banking index retest 18
 AAPL and GOOG, NASDAQ back to bear market correction plunged below 2200
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.html
 Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal market beat blog  July 16, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Today’s strong rebound by financial short covering and bottom fishing based on Wells Fargo fair earning report with dividend raise and oil price plunge out of profit taking is typical bear market rally, hard to sustain.
One banks report does not represent the general trend of the industry , the credit crisis, and economic difficulties remain. after today party, FNM, FRE and national, regional banks defaults, housing market slump , inflationary recession will still be with us and getting worse.
We will see the party will be over soon by profit taking. details  on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm  www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm

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Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal market beat blog  July 18, 2008 at 8:17 pm

Apple earning will be benefited by new product innovation comes at the right timing of rebate check, It is tough for Apple to continue this momentum after Sept back to school sale, after rebate check run out and economic slip into recession with soaring job cuts, plunging consumer confidence, continued housing market slump and soaring inflation ( core inflation above 3 %).
AAPL will facing 30 % price correction to 130 level then GOOG retest 400 level in the month ahead.
My demand side oil price simulation tracking last 25 year daily oil price since 1980 ( patented published on US Oil & Gas Journal Journal 1983 Itpredicte since last Sept on Wall Street Journal Market beat and energy blog that excessive rate cut drag dollar lower and economic rebate check driving up summer gasoline peak demand push oil price to 145 on July 4, ( while most analyst speculate oil price will go to 150- 200 , I insisted oil price stay below 146 ) and consolidate into 120- 146 after July till labor day after rebate check is about to run out and plunge into 105- 125 after labor day till early Nov. off peak season, And rebound to 110- 135 in winter heating oil peak demand season Nov. Feb 2009
Oil and commodity price bubble will burst entering bear market correction oil price stay below 100 ) only we facing recession late this year-to early next year. after Fed rate hike,
Any economic stimulus to support the housing markets and rebate check to boost consumer, business demand will be used by market speculators to drive oil back to 130- 145.
Market is near the end of bear market rally, it is tough to break out the bear market trend with Benanke
warning on economic dificulties in housing market slump, credit crisis, soaring job cuts and strained financial markets with serious inflation pressure PPI at 9.2 % 1981 level.
detail on www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.htm www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm  www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/opthedge.html

 US markets continue slide to retracing July 15 loss, back filling consolidation in digesting tomorrow banking  bankruptcy, FNM trouble and Benanke comment on econoic difficulties in strained market, mounting job loss, slumping housing market continue and soaring inflation. by  Two master hands controlling global Capital  Markets  Opening/Closing, emerging bull/bear market trend  prices market forces mechanism
Dow Jones will continue testing 10800-  10900 ,  in the weeks ahead drag banking stocks USB, FNM , investments, national and regional banks for new low
China facing continued credit tightening in fighting 7.3 % inflation, housing price bubble and Dow Jones  and Henseng  plunge, Shangahi A  follows Dow Jones give up all its recent rally retest 2600 support
Taiwan central bank continue credit  tightening in fighting  4 % inflation, housing price bubble and Dow Jones  and Henseng  plunge, Taiwan index  follows  Nasdaq  plunge give up  continue plunge into bear market correction in 6000- 6500
Hong Kong monetary authority continue credit  tightening in fighting  4 % inflation, housing price bubble and Dow Jones    plunge  Henseng  index    continue plunge into bear market correction in  18000- 21000
Opening bell for US markets:
Market subject to profit taking, Dow Jones rebound to 11400 level have support near 10860-11000 , it will give up most of its gain to retest 11000, Google disappoint drag stock below 5000 as Predict by this  webpage drag Nasdaq retest 2235, financials shares  will be driven by any financial share disappointment give up half of its gain  drag Dow to 11000 level
Opening bell forecast for Asian markets
Despite US strong rebound by short covering  and bottom fishing in financial group speculating on Wells Fargo    fair earning, dividend raise, and JPM 50 % earning decline,all facing widening write off and uncertain future will facing correction, plunge in oil price are  temporary, it will return to 1350- 140 level soon
Asian market will enjoy good rally July 17,, 18 with Hong Kong rebound over 900 point to 21900, Shanghai index rebound to 2800, Taiwan index rebound to 7000  level
  Dr. Warren Huang (黃華南博士) Pioneer, proactive structural dynamic global inflation, macro economy, daily financial markets interest rates, currency, stock, bond, derivatives, housing, commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism, accurately warned on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 and Mar 5, 2008 masterclass  workshop China fund world 2008, Pudong, China  to Goldman Sach managing directors JPM, UBS and 150 China QDII/QFII fund managers that  US Fed aggressive rate cuts drag dollar to 1.53-1.65 EURO, 95- 108 Yen, economic stimulus boost consumer spending on gasoline and jet fuel summer, demand, driving gasoline , heating oil to 415, oil price to 121-145, commodity price will peak out as US dollar rebound follow Fed ending rate cuts cycle , can not stop housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economy into inflationary recession and US, global stock indices bear market 30- 50 % , Dow Jones test 10000, NASDAQ PLUNGE 30 % and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % correction,    with banking, finance, housing share price plunge 50- 70 %, dollar making to new low, oil price to 140 and gas to 14, commodity prices doubled, widening bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO, Bear Stearn 30 billion dollar MBS hedge fund ,despite Fed rate cuts He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 8.7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing  2550 till summer 2008, stamp tax for stock trading cut to 1 % provide initial support to 3000 level, and plunged again to 2550-  2750  after Dow Jones plunged to 11000,commodities, oil asset pricing and risks valuation markets fundamentals price mechanism,  ,capital on the emerging bull, bear market trend through optimal long- short strategic asset allocation. portfolio management, He recommended US mutual fund (  US oil fund follow oil , gas price doubled Ultra short financial,  up 70 %, Ultra short QQQ ( Nasdaq ) UP 30 %. , and  recommended ETF: US natural gas up  100  % as natural gas soared from 6 to 12., and Japan crude oil fund up 110, as oil price doubled from 70 to 149. and Oppenheimer Commodities  up 90 % as, corn, soybean price doubled  

DR. Huang who was risk management panelist and   full day masterclass  workshop lecturer  for  Pudong, March 6,     Terrapinn China
Fund World  2008  conference, offer proactive structural China/global asset pricing, 2008 credit tightening, US subprime meltdown, recession impact on global stock indices, commodities, energy indexing ETF Optimal multiclass asset 1xx/xx  long-short hedging, asset  allocation  strategy  by catching ahead the emerging bull/bear market trend
Dr. Warren Huang accurately warned  on Wall Street Journal Market beat Blog Sept.19, 2007 that US housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag economy into inflationary recession and US, bear market correction, widening credit derivative swap bond spread and failure in MBS/CDO ,oil above 100, Dow Jones index plunge to 11000- 11500, housing stock plunge 70- 90 % banking,  financial and high fliers (GOOG, PTR, AAPL) , IT, retail stocks facing 30-50 % despite Fed  rate cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market  price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 2700- 3000 till summer 2008
Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat-July 14  2008 at 5:51 pm

I kept warning since last Sept on this blog that housing price slump, soaring foreclosure, will spread into national and regional banks, FNM and Freddie Mac and credit crisis into this summer, it will be premature for bottom fishing in banking, finance, housing sectors. Soaring oil, commodity price and inflation, plunging stock markets will cause additional pressure on inflationary recession and postpone housing market recovery   www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/UShouswksp.htm  www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm

Comment to  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog July 11 2008
I warned since last Sept. on Wall Street Journal Market beat blog that US housing price slump continue through summer 2008, drag economy into 1980 style inflationary recession, banking, finance, mortgage stock entering bear market correction through summer 2008, It is premature for any bottom fishing for these distressed shsre.
Panic selling in FNM, FRE, LEH in speculate another Bear Stearn meltdown. These share has some speculative value, despite  rebound 50 % from their low today, in bear market rally avoided these share, until  the dust is settled down, it will retrace its low soon.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.html
 Comment to Yahoo Finance July 11 2008
US markets entering extended bear market correction as I warned on Wall Street Journal Market Beat blog since last Sept. current Dow Jones traded in 11000 - 11500, it facing resistance above 11400 yesterday, as typical bear rally, selling into the rally, banking, financials, housing continue facing selling pressure as housing market slump and credit crunch continue into the summer, investment banking facing domestic and global stock market bear markets correction trading loss, even top performaer Goldman Sach can not get away from it.
NASDAQ will continue correction 22000- 22500 ,as Sieman cut 17600 jobs siting global economic slowdown, and SP 500 facing 1200- 1250 correction, with weakness spread from banking, finacil to other industrial groups, now even oil, commodity under profit taking facing 20 % correction, oil price will be traded 125- 145 before labor day, and 110- 130 during Sept-Oct, metal, and commodity prices will follow oil price correction.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/fund2008.html www.osawh.com/opthedge.html  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.html
www.osawh.com/commodity.html
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat July,1 2:30 pm Stock bear market rally

I warned on this blog last Sept that housing prce slump drag economic into recession, US and global stock , bond markets bear correction continue into summer 2008, I also warned that plunging dollar push il commodity prices , inflation to new high, US and global economy will facing inflationary recession, we will see oil test 145 by July 4 th and Dow Jones tst 10000 support, Nasdaq test 2000 this summer as global stocks, bond entering bear market, with few days bear market rally, and drags the market lower each time banking, finance, housing share slump will spreading into retail, high tech ( Nasdaq already down 20 %), and all other sectors
 details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm    www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm 

Comment to Yahoo Finance June 29, 2008
I warned on Wall Street Market beat blog last Sept that Fed rate cut cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag economy into recession, stock into bear market correction banking, finance share plunge 50-70 % and plunging dollar, economic stimulus package push soaring oil , commodity price in summer peak demand, resulted inflationary recession will drag banking share further.
SP banking 50 % correction is just phase one correction, it may have some bear market rally, and then plunge ito phase 2 correction, 50-70 %, reflecting further housing market slump resulted credit crisis and job cuts, stock market crashed impact on banking sare performance
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm   www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recession.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 24, 2:30 pm market speculation

Based on my 30 years proactive structural tracking of daily global industrial and commodities asset pricing and speculation behaviors,
it indicating the speculators are using fundamentals mechanism to speculating daily pricing.
As I predicted on this blog last Sept that Fed rate cuts can not stop housing price slump , sub-prime crisis spread into credit crisis, banking, housing stocks will plunge 50- 70 %.
and I predicted too that Fed rate cuts drag dollar lower, and stimulus package will driving consumer higher led to record oil, commodities price ( more than doubled.
Therefore oil price speculator using demand side price mechanism, despite Saudi raise production, Banking speculators using housing price slump, credit crisis led widening write down drag stock price for new low.
details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 17, 2:30 pm

I warned on this blog that investment banking , regional banks and finance, housing industries facing continued  soaring unsold house inventory,  foreclosure, credit default, credit crisis, unemployment share  prices facing 50- 70 % correction, will led to housing price slump continue into summer 2008, drag economics into recession, despite aggressive rate cuts, drag dollar lower,and soaring oil, commodities prices facing inflationary recession. Despite GS excellent performances , it is tough to fight the turbulent, uncertainties market ahead.
Walmart May sale increase  are benefited by rebate check, can not be sustainable after July , and profit margin are squeezed by heavy discount,
That is why Walmart postponed its store opening investment., It share price all ready peaking out.
Economic stimulus will continue drive up consumers spending for food, oil, consumer products to July, supporting record oil, commodities prices and inflation. Gold price will be pushed up by oil, price, inflation and weak dollar to retest 990.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/test.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.html www.osawh.com/commody.html
 
Comment by  Warren Huang Wall Street Market Beat- June 16, 2008 at 1:12 pm
It is tough  for most investment bank, financial, banking investing heavily on highly leverage risky MBS, CMBS and risk hedging in uncertain turbulent economy and credit, financial crisis with unreliable asset and risk valuation and credit rating method, which heavily rely on betting on the wrong direction of interest rate and investment.
After Bear Stearn, now Lehman, more will follow in current quart earning report shock and worst is yet to come in the month ahead, when Fed change interest rate directions.
Market bull analyst speculate on banking , financial and high tech shares, must take into continue housing, price slump, high job cuts, foreclosures and plunge manufacturing activities ( NY plunged from -3.3 to -8.8 in May)
details onwww.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm  www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm
 

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 11, 2008 at 3:21 pm

According to my tracking last 20 years daily Euro, Yen and oil price movement, oil price is more snesitive to euro lately, due to EURO ECB more aggressive fighting soaring 3.2 % inflation, while Japan inflation stay relative flat at 1.5 %, no immediate threat and interest rate relative constant at 1.5 % Today EURO rebound from 1.54 to 1.556 push oil price higher, Oil will follow EURO move to 1.575 retest 139.

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 6,12:30 pm

No one can manipulate any global commodity price, they are determined by market supply , demand price mechanism.
I pioneered this price mechanism on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983, predicted last 30 years daily oil, energu, commodities price and during energy crisis.
I predicted to hundreds top global multinational oil CEO, VP on China Oil, Gas market conference, Beijing, Feb, Nov. 2005 that oil price soared from 50 to 80, when every one predicted oil price slump.
and again last Sept on the blog that Fed rate cuts will drag dollar lower, push oil price to 110 while  Benanke and economist predicted oil price slump in recession. I predicted to 150 inveesment bank CEO, fund managers on China fund world conference March 5, 2008, Pudong, Shanghai and on this blog early this year that economic stimulus will push oil price to 135 , gold price to 1000 in this summer peak demand, and warn bear market trap on market analyst to rally stock price. It is obvious, market traders, investment banker, are not manipulate the oil, they use central banks rate cuts, and tax rebates, dollar weakness to speculate the oil price bubble on oil price slump
Dow Jones soared 220 point yesterday on oil price slump and jobless claim and plunged 230 point on oil price spike and unemployment data ignoring my warning on this blog that FEd rate cuts, stimulus packagae will not stop housing price slump, mortgage, credit crisis, , mounting job cuts drag economic into recession, US and global stock market bear market correction, Dow must test 11000- 12000, banking, finance, retail, stocks plunge 50- 70 %, it will give up all its recent gain in bottom fishing rebound .
details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/commody.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm www.osawh.com/goldf.html

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat  June 5, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Adding big high tech to Russel 1000does not necessarily help its performance specialy in economic downturn, with housing slump and plunging consumer sentiment continue into summer. As I warned on this blog last Sept. that banking, finance will face 50- 70 % correction, and consumer IT stock will be facing 30- 50 % correction.
Recent rebound in consumer stocks reacting to economic stimulus generated low priced ( shrinking profit margin )sales.will soon be over.
It will be another bear market rally ( 3 day)to speculate on new Russle.
details on www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/OSAmarkettoday.htm
Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat June 2, 2008 at 1:24 pm on Investment bank, banking, financial  stock pricing

I predicted and warned on this blog last Sept that US housing price slump will continue into summer 2008, spread into mortgage and credit crunch crisis, banking, finance, housing stock will be down 50- 70 % in bear market correction The impact of corporate CEO step down news on short term daily stock price change is bias, it is distorted on that daily market sentiment, like UBS bad news was downplayed by US Bear Stearn bailout optimism.3- 6 month is more reliable reflect market fundamental price mechanism of slumping housing market resulted credit crunch and financial crisis .
These shares will loss all its recent gain due to housing market clump, soaring inflation and job cuts, plunging consumer confidence slump into 1980 low.
details can be found on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm  www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- May 17, 2008 at  3:21pm

As I warned in the last few weeks on this blog that use temporary oil price plunge to speculative on April rally , driving Dow Jones to 13100, NASDAQ to 2550 is very dangerous, oil , commodity price will continue making new high this summer due to economic stimulus package supported holiday travel demand and continued housing price slump drag consumer confidence, and spending, mounting job cuts into inflationary recession. recession. Fed and government are over optimistic over second half economic rebound.
Today Fed release last month meeting minutes  indicating US 2008 GDP only 0.3- 1.2 % and CPI 3.4 % is much in line with my forecast on this blog last week.
Stock market bull sentiment is cooled, suffering 420 point loss, will continue make the correction in banking, finance, housing, retail, and IT sector, which enjoyed over 50 % rebound, will give up most of their loss.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm www.osawh.com/centmaf.html www.osawh.com/fund2008.html　

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- May 17, 2008 at 1:32pm
Stock market bull are struggling to make sustainable rally based on oil prices plunge, at today oil making 128 new high, it try to use Benanke, Paulson optimimic view on credit crisis and second half economic recovery, the dollar rebound to soaring oil, inflation related rate hike support. Ignoring miserable back ground, consumer confidence sank to 1980 deep recession low, and houjsing prices and single family start continue making new low, despite rebound in apartment building, on top of 10  month unsold inventory 
Market bulls are getting irrational , emotional in high speculative mood repeating last summer, use any piece good news from M/A, IPO, oil, dollar, Fed, to discard all bad news.
hope we do not repeat lasst summer betting on the wrong direction. Do not expect raise oil production, strength of dollar to drag down the crude oil price in peak summer demand.
From my 30 years tracking of global crude oil price price mechanism, dollar and demand carry the same weight on price movement, and even dollar upword potential is limited, given prolong, US housing market sump, Fed will not be able to raise too much rate to cool of the inflation, to kill the housing markets. so, oil still have upword potential driven by stimulus package support spending. details on  www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/currency.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm 

Comment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- May 16, 2008 at 1:19pm

It would be overoptimissitc over that fact that SP500 exclude banking, finance still manage 12 % earning growth, most of these from oil , commodities, resources, stock,
these earning lag the market for 3 month, wait till all these soaring oil, commodities, inflation impact on downstream consumer soaring raw material, energy cost ( 70- 90 % of total operating costs) , you will see it all go to earning decline, even including oil, commodities stock will follow suit,look at PetroChina plunge 50 % from it 275, multinational oil facing profit squeeze SO do not speculate on stocks, we are approaching 1980 inflationary recession, time for corrections As I warned last Sept on this blog that housing price continue slump into summer 2008, drag dollar, consumer confidence below 60, soaring oil, commodities prices, mounting job cuts economic recession and earning decline, stock bear market correction.
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm, www.osawh.com/opthedge.htm  www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1 daily blog

omment by Warren Huang Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- May 13, 2008 at 619pm 

April retail sales has been distorted by advance payment for low end consumer goods (below 400 dollars out of gasoline, food payment left from 600 stimulus package for
rebate check, as already shown on surge on March credit card).While the big ticket above 400 like computer, automobile plunged due to recession impact.
This one time spike only help second quarter barely escape recession.
The economy will follow housing price slump and job cuts into inflationary recession again.   I predicted last Sept on this blog that Fed aggressive rate cuts will drag dollar, driving oil to 130, commodities price more than double and soaring inflation, 10 year bond yield break 4 % this summer, eventually stock market bear correction.I have speaking to dozens US and European structural finance finance and central banks governors conferences since 1999 and 2003  and 2007 that ABS  and  MBS, CDO based on statistical asset pricing and credit default rating will lead to betting on the wrong side of interest rates and trillion dollar loss in US and European housing bubble burst and mortgage, credit crisis.
I warned on Deal journal few days ago ,that HP cash buy out low end low profit margin data processing company EDS to compete with IBM will not work. It need high end strategic BPO strategic supply demand chain to compete with Oracle, IBM. HP stocks plunge drag Dow down 40 points.
I also warned last week market speculators use dollar rebound, and oil price setback to drive up Dow is not sustaonable, due to oil price will keep making new high due to rebate check and consumer peak summer demand, and dollar will be traded in narrow range due to US housing market slump.
Today oil soared to new high, Dow lose ground even Dollar up to 104 Yen
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/STouts.html  www.osawh.com/fund2008.htm www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/blog1 daily blog

US Stocks plunge in correction to housing market slump, ECB  hold interest rate cut, Dollar gain strength  Oil prices  , inflation worry continue
ECB, BOE hold interest rate un change as I predicted yesterday 

Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 9, 2008 at   at 7:45 pm
Markets speculators over-optimistic over the credit
crisis outlook and IT growth due to stimulus package has driven Dow from 11600 to 13040 and Nasdaq from 22200 to 2487, with finance and IT small caps ( AAPL ) up 50 %).
finally profit taking time, wake up from AIG 7.8 billion loss and CIti sale 400 billion asset, realized that credit crisis still deep rooted in us, oil price soared to 126 new high raisse not only macroeconomic inflation, rate hike concern, but also industrial sector soaring supply chain raw material, energy cost which fail to pass through inrecession, ledt ot profit
margin squeeze and loss for many sectors, It is questionable how long and how much stimulus package maintain consumer spending on IT sectors>
the past week is long awaited correction for banking, financials, housing, IT and consumer goods.
details on   www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/recesion.html

Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 8, 2008 at   at 6:03 pm

I predicted on this blog last Sept that housing price slump continue into summer 2008 drag economic into recession,
banking, housing, insurance sectors mounting write off mortgage default, credit derivative loss, all shares give their 2006 gain, down 30- 50 % looking for new lows .as they all sown today
AIG suffered 7.8 billion loss due to credit default derivatives swap and mortgage default in the first quarter. this will continue into this summer, credit crisis continue with us through the summer.details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 7, 2008 at  7:37 pm

Stock market plunged 206, finally give up its recent gain on banking, finance, IT shares despite mounting write down and loss in mortgage loan default.
It is not because of oil price soared to record level ( It is used to it , even gain on oil shares performances.)
Bullish speculators speculate the worst of credit crisis is over, in led to over 30 -50 % gain in these share, will loss most of its gain in a bear trap, as housing price slump will continue, soaring oil, commodities price, foreclosure, job cut drag consumer confidence to deep recession level. Betting on the interest rate and banking, finance, housing market rebound will repeat last summer trillion dollar loss, facing double dip inflationary recession in Feds ending rate cuts cycle.10 year bond yield will repeat last summer break 4 %
It is premature to speculate ECB will cuts rate before summer at current oil, commodities prices and inflation level.
So dollar has limited speculation room as rising oil price, inflation. But Fed is not to switch to rate hike cycle before housing price slump ends.
details on www.osawh.coom/Fedcrisab.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm www.osawh.com/riskm.html 

Comment by Warren Huang on Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog - May 7, 2008 at 2:49 pma

I warned since last Sept on this blog  that it is premature to speculated, merger any housing mortgage company, as housing price slump contine into summer 2008. I indicated CFC offer at 7 is overvalued,, it may follow housing price plunged below 4.
It is premature too to announce that the worst of credit crisis is behind us. You may claim that he worst of sub-prime crisis is behind us,
But the housing price slump continue into summer, will spread into prime mortgage and credit cards, we may repeat Bear Stearn hedge fund
failure on betting on  the wrong side of interest rate again, As I predicted 10 year bond yield will break 4 % Fed will swing into rate hike cycle to fight inflation soon.
facing 1980 double dip inflationary recession With slumping housing price and consumer confidence, soaring oil price and job cuts,
How can any one speculato on housing, banking issues declare credit crisis is over!
details on www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm  www.osawh.com/macro.html www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm

Comment by Warren Huang -Wall Street Journal Market Beat May 6, 2008  and  osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/ blog1 at 6:25 pm

The market is repeating its last August speculative mood, chasing on banking, high tech stocks push Dow to 14200 new high, this time over 13000, trying to break downtrend., despite housing markets slump, soaring oil, commodities prices, job cuts and banking, finance mounting loss in write down.
The market optimism built on shaking ground, betting on housing, banking, high tech sectors rebound, will lead to another trillion dollar loss.
Goldman’s prediction of 200 dollar oil price is against market supply demand fundamental mechanism. Oil price bubble will burst before 200.consumers just can not afford
to pay for that price. We will have long, deep inflationary recession with us, even stimulus package rate cuts will not be able to achieve sustainable recovery this year. We have already seen the worst of dollar weakness at almost the end of current rate cuts cycle, the soaring oil price will push inflation higher, all will give support to US dollar.
Gasoline and heating oil are still the major demand driving force for oil price. It is the spring, summer gasoline demand drive the oil price from 80 to 120.
stronger dollar supported by inflation fighting will drag oil price lower, current oil price spike is expectation of stimulus package boost jet fuel and gasoline demand this summer.
We may see oil price breakout to 130, not much beyond that. details on www.osawh.com/Globaloiln.htm www.osawh.com/oilpetpri.html  www.osawh.coom/currency.html

Comment by Warren Huang  Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog- March 31, 2008 at 11:15 pm

With all the continued housing price slump, and mess in banking, finance huge widening writeoff, manufacturing supply chain index and consumer confidence in recession, Dow Jones Index only plunged 7.6 %, is supported by Fed’s aggressive rate cuts and 260 billion dollar injection into the
banking system to ease the credit crisis.
However, the mortgage crisis will spread into economic recession as housing price slump continue into summer,despite rate cuts.
Dow Jones index and stock market will facing tough fight ahead and into bear market correction, consolidating in 11000-12000
details on www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund.htm
corn price continue making new high testing 6- 8.0due to demand in fuel and
crop shortage, on top of weak dollar in future rate cuts details on www.osawh.com/commody.htm

 Dr. Warren Huang  who pioneered proactive structural demand side oil price mechanism simulation on US Oil & Gas Journal 1983,
 circulated  million copies to 80 countries, accurately predicted oil price from 9 to 110 　. He predicted 2005 on China
Oil Markets Conference workshop, Beijin to multinational oil, QFII CEO, executives that oil prices soared to 80 , due to increasing demand from China/US   global housing, auto, construction materials and transportation, dragged by  US housing market weakness, oil price will be supported by final leg of dollar plunge against Yen, and inflation, seasonal demand in gasoline, heating oil and global housing, constructional materials, metals energy consumption. it peaking out summer gasoline demand at  80, Fed 300 points rate cuts, economic stimulus package, 200 billion cash injection led to Yen plunge to 95-100-105, and EURO to 1.55-1.66 ,driving up consumer,  business demand and oil price to 90- 115 , supporting  spring summer driving peak demand in 2008 through economic stimulus, tax cuts
He also warned top QFII management on Peking Univ June 2007 International Financial Engineering Conference that China overheated housing, stock market wealth gain resulted inflation over 7 % will lead to China Peoples Bank credit tightening to remove excessive liquidity, Housing, stock markets follow US housing price slump, recession, bear market correction, with Shanghai A testing 3500- 4000 till summer 2008

Latest Wall Street Journal Blog by Dr. Warren Huang
The typical bear market rally I have been warning on this blog since last Sept, that it give up all its gain in all its post rate cut rally and
headed lower until housing price slump ended, rate cuts stopped, stock markets completed its bear market correction till summer 2008
CDS spread will continue widening in this uncertain situation in mortgage credit crisis.
details on www.osawh.com/macro.html and www.osawh.com/mortdefa.htm and www.osawh.com/fund.htm
Comment by Warren Huang ,Wall Street Journal -Market Beat Blog. March 19, 2008 at 7:55 pm

Market bull speculators using bond issuer upgrade and IBM shares buyback news to survive bear rally.
It discount 26 year record high PPI at 7.4 % and consumer confidence plunged to 75 ( into 60-80) recession
range predicted by me on this blog last Sept. Housing price plunged 8.9 % and continue to slide, despite
aggressive rate cuts, stimulus package.
investors forgot IBM share buy back at 100 in 2001, fail to stop stock price plunge to 80, it will repeat
again, It is premature to speculate any share buyback. This economic recession will follow housing slump for another 6 months.
We are facing tough inflationary recession, not just stagflation as I predicted last Sept on this blog
 

Comment by Warren Huang - February 26, 2008 at 7:22 pm
I warned on this blog last Sept and Jan this year that continued talk of aggressive rate cuts to fight recession,
ignoring soaring will push record oil, commodities price and inflation, drag dollar lower against EURO to 1.50- 1.59.
However, it is supported by soaring US inflation , 10 year bond yield ( will break 4 %) expecting Fed aggressive
rate hikes fighting inflation, following current rate cuts
details can be found on www.osawh.com/currency.html and www.osawh.com/Fedcrisab.htm
and www.osawh.com/centmaf.html
Comment by Warren Huang - February 26, 2008 at 7:30 pm

Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. Sept. 26, 207

Dr. Huang recommended to Phillips Petroleum CEO, Merrill Lynch, HSBC，Mobil, Exxon, Aramco VP Nov 2005 to invest 2006 Jan and  July oil, energy futures  and metals call option, he predicted oil prices go to 69 in Jan and 78 in Aug 2006, and gasoline, heating oil, metal derivatives investments up more than 1000 % , and warned US, China continue interesst rate hikes into summer 2006, stocks give up all 2006 gain, due to inflationary slowdown pressure, US GDP slow to 1.6 %, core inflation up 2.7 %
 All US, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong OSA  Proactive Market Today, market opening/closing bell, emerging bull/bear market trend analysis will be provided by www.osaglobalstrategicmanagement.com/OSAtoday.html
innovative  proactive global central banks, FRB monetary policy, rate hikes impact  Economy/Capital Markets Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning and sustainable profit, market shares growth strategy.  Bernanke  will replace Greenspan as FRB chairman Feb 2006, He already drop accommodate to (economic growth) and measured interest rate hikes , miss interpreted, distorted by financial market economists as the end of rate hike, as last 13 measured rate hikes mislead the markets, underestimated the inflation and encouraged wealth effect resulted speculation in housing and construction materials bubbles in oil and natural resources. Oil prices will challenges 69 in January and metals prices making new high follows by commodities prices. Gas and electricity cost up 40 % will drive  CPI higher in the month ahead. current rate hikes will continue into the summer, US dollar and stocks, bond all overvalued, facing correction.

 US dollar weakness continue in 2006:  Soaring import leading to record US trade deficit of 685 billion will  drag US dollar  continue into this year Euro : 1.25- 1.35 , Yen 104-116, 
Global stocks bear market correction  summer,  2006, give up most of 2006 gain
 US, Asian and European stocks  follow US stocks  making new high will gave up most of  this  year gain  China and US  summer economic slowdown will drag global economic growth, stocks  ( including IPO )facing  30-50 % bear market  correction consolidation   Dow will be traded 10000- 11400, Nasdaq  2000- 2350 , S&P 1200-13500, US 10 year bond yield will be back to 5.10- 5.7.  Taiwan index overheated  drag to 6200- 7400, Henseng 14500- 17500, Nikkei 14500- 17900, China credit tightening continue. Shanghai A 1400- 1680, Shenzhen3500- 4350, 
   Greenspan agree with Dr. Warren Huang that RMB revaluation and US raise import tarrif by 27 % will not help manufacturing cut trade deficit and jobs. and accurately predicted Feb 22, 2005 in Beijin Asian Business Forum 70 global banking, finance, oil companies , QFII CEO, executives US facing inflationary slowdown and rate hikes  continue into final quarter  as oil prices soared from 45  to 69 , 
He predicted again in Beijing Nov 18 to Asian Business Forum China Oil Markets conference to Exxon Mobil, ARAMCO, VP , Phillips Petroleum CEO, 30  oil companies CEO, executives that increasing oils , downstream demand driving oil prices to 64 around Christmas and 69 in January , metals prices to new high. plunging US dollar, stock, bond.
book his 2006 US/China macroeconomic control, currency, commodities, bond, stocks futures, derivatives investment strategy workshops
 semiconductors and internet stocks overpriced following  Nasdaq correction.

Dr. Warren Huang  lectured Nov. 2003 lectured to 2000 QFII  on Euro-events Singapore http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt  , Shanghai, Beijin Nov. Asian/China finance, capital Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm2003   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives, identify housing, equities wealth effect bubbles   month ahead, investment opportunities in China petrochemical upstream/downstream, steel, aluminum, telecommunications ADR , Shanghai A and Hong Kong H shares, mutual fund up 80 %  IPO shares up 150 % and early warning for asset bubbles in oil, commodities prices reaching 23  year peak( recommended invested in future, derivatives gained 5000 %) in March 2004, will drive China CPI to 5 %, with steel, cement over-invested 170 % and energy shortage will lead to further credit tightening, accurately predicted China Peoples bank raise bank reserve ratio 0.5 % to 7.5 % open market inter-bank rate (Chibor) must stay above 3.% to remove 110 billion from the capital markets,  US CPI to 5.1 %, core inflation to 2.7 % in the summer , overoptimistic over US economic recovery and job creation,( despite March strong 300,000  new jobs can not sustainable after June quarter tax rebate is over ( June job creation already down to 32,000) and  inflation outlook may lead to rate hike after May and summer lead to serious bond market plunge (US lose  380 billion dollar, China lose 270 billion) housing bubble repeat 1995 bond market crash and 2000 election bubble and global IT and blue chips banking shares facing and correction 2004
 He lectured  to 50 European, Asian, Malaysian central banks, banking, finance executives Kuala Lumpur, Sept. 30, 2002 predicted that oil prices soared to 43, Dow Jones retest 7500 Nasdaq 1250, March 2003 on Asian Business Forum.
 When you have Dr. Huang's two OSA master hands you are in good hands for tracking , forecasts  month ahead the emerging market bull/bear trend of last 20 years  global central banks monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy impact on macro-economic control , prices stability and capital stocks, bond, oil, metals, commodity future, derivatives market prices market forces prices mechanism, investors sentiment simulation, forecasts , value investing strategy, wealth management,  risk hedging  That's what, why, how he has been lecture to 24 global  central bank governors, wealth management, financial market risk management, OPEC petroleum ministers , oil, gas  investment, supply chain conferences and millions global central banks, banking, finance, corporate CEO, executives on this website  since 1998 ,He offered thousands lectures over 30 million China, Taiwan, Asian, US , ASEAN, European executives, investors on TV, radio programs and thousands workshops since 1985
Global stocks, bond and Wall Street Market Research OSA Market Tracking, Forecasts: Global Capital Markets Asset prices tracking, forecasts:
2004 Forecasts/review,
 2005 Oil, commodity prices forecast
 Market speculators using Oil prices plunged from 55 to 40 and back to 50, and Intel profit decline, over-optimistic outlook, Apple profit up 70 % due to i-Pod new product innovation Dell 29 % profit gain to push Dell and High tech, and  IBM PC sale to China, Oracle PeopleSoft 10 billion dollar merger facing margin squeeze and Sprint Nextel 35 billion dollar merger all facing sharp competition, to speculate blue chips and Nasdaq will give up all its recent gain is premature ,oil price already rebound to 69 due to soaring US, China consumer, business demand in summer 2005.
2006 High tech stock performance forecasts
US and global IT ( from chips, PC, to telecommunication, entertaining) demand growth will be slow down to 6 % , facing profit squeeze, stock prices retreat 30 -50 %, with China internet stocks bubble burst, plunge 70- 80 % . Dell profit decline continue,  facing profit squeeze, pricing cutting from HP, Apple sales and general economic slowdown, Dell stock will plunge below 30, IBM test 80. HP overpriced, profit, stock prices continue drag by PC operation (as warned by Dr. Huang on this website) speculating on HP CEO change will not improve near term profit, stock performance, only smart PC can lead to breakthrough. will be traded 30-26  Global IPO  will facing 30-50 % correction  as Google overpriced  will  plunged from 465 to 355, any attempt using IPO and  using market merger and some bullish earning news  to speculate bull market rebound will be followed by sell off bear trap  US economy already facing inflationary slowdown  soaring oil, commodity, high inflation resulted slowdown (4 Q GDP slowed to 1.21%),while year end manufacturing order, consumer confidence rebound, only leading to excessive inventory builtup,  repeating 2000 bubble burst avoided trillion dollar bond, equities, derivative market loss made trillion dollar oil, commodity derivatives market profit.

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Strategic China Energy trade Finance conference and Strategic Risks Management workshop
 Do not miss these billion dollar  global strategic  coal, energy , freight, power industry solution in fighting soaring energy, feedstock costs  and bottleneck
Dr. Warren Huang will share with you his 30 years  hundreds multinational , SOE oils, gas energy financing project managers and consulting experiences in his  key note speech  and workshop for Asian Business Forum
 China oil, gas, LNG, LPG conference Feb 24-25, 2005, Beijin on
A. China Economic , energy policy reform, rates hike   impact on  oil, gas demand, prices market forces mechanism and gas industry structures
B. Challenges, Opportunities, Risks, return in US/ China macroeconomic control impact on global coal,  oil, natural gas, LNG, LPG and downstream petrochemicals, power industry demand, futures prices market forces mechanism and investments  risk adjusted return
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 including the causes, onset, spread, recovery, early warning of China/global energy crisis, supply bottleneck and policy, manufacturing energy conservation, de-bottlenecking 
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Tracking, simulate Global monetary, economic, fiscal, WTO policy, investors, consumer confidence, technical charting impact on last 20 years daily global financial market interest rate, currency, stock indices , commodity, oil, bond futures, 20 industrial sectors 5000 products, demand, listed stocks earning, prices performances:
 
China Macroeconomic control tracking, forecasts: China started second phase credit tightening, rate hike series begin.
China finally raised prime rate by 0.27, to cool off the asset bubble, with structural rate hike, floating loan upper limit from  5.6- 12.5 %, Oct. 28, 2004, accurately  predicted by  Dr. Huang last Nov. 2003 in Euro-events Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Asian/China finance, capital market conference and May 8, 15, 2004 to San Francisco Silicon Valley Finance radio and Global Finance Forum, Hi tech investment seminar, Silicon Valley and on this website, visited by million global central banks, banking, finance, corporate executives.
Global central banks ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation, demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products resulted US Fed raising rate , too little, too late, China delaying  rate hike to effectively cut market demand led to China Sept.  CPI inflation up 5.2 % again and third quarter GDP growth still at 9.1 % due to increasing   business ( up 28 %)and consumer demand up 14 % ,will facing soaring inflation  from current 5.3 % to 6.6 % in winter peaking holiday demand season .   Despite  China Peoples Bank raised deposit ratio by 1.5 % and cutting capital investment in steel, cement, aluminum, auto loan lead to  some progress macroeconomic control with Sept. money supply growth at 13.6 % (below 17 % target), auto sales up only  10 %, asset prices, inflation  followed soaring oil price to 55,  all time high metal prices   coastal cities Beijin, Shanghai GDP up 14 %) from year ago, wealth effect, FDI drive national  housing prices up 14.8 % ( 2750 ) and 38 % for coastal cities Shanghai, Ninbo,, Guanzhou .  retail sale up 13.2, China 2004 GDP up 9.2 % far above 7 % target, medium, long term loan up 25.4  %, inflation up 4 % . China economy  is far from soft landing, will have very tough year to cut domestic demand and GDP below 8 % and  call the need for further  interest rate hike and raise deposit reserve ratio   to cool off the consumer and housing demand in winter holiday peak season .  As. China Peoples bank issue 100 billion notes to cut 100 billion from the money market avoid overheated Chinese New Year demand further drive up inflation. S.  soaring China, US demand pushing China steel, cement, aluminum investment (over 120 %), coal, energy shortage,  stocks prices recent rebound from 1250  to 1470 speculating over Premier's  915 statement over stock market stability is overheated ( accurately predicted by Dr. Huang on this website and already retreat to 1200)) market is over, continue bear market technical rebound ( within 20 %  and consolidation, with Shanghai A testing 1150- 1300, IPO and newly listed small cap shares plunge 30-50 % with most testing its IPO price, low prices blue chips shares like Sinopec, Unicom will lead future rebound 20  %. , This supply side tightening are insufficient to cool  the uneven economic overheating,  as China raised key interest rate by 0.27 % and  implement  structural  rate hikes in late Oct. 2004 will continue into 2005 as predicted by Dr. Huang to cut off excessive consumer , business demand in housing, construction materials, auto and retails  demand . to cool off soaring housing and metals prices,  and  serious energy , electricity , coal shortage, and transportation, communication bottleneck. 
China benefited by lower food price, Nov CPI drop to 2.8 %  from Oct. 5.2 %, however rising heating oil, gas ( oil prices will rebound 50 and feedstock price, falling dollar will push US and global inflation  in the winter heating demand.
China  hopefully achieve soft landing in the second half . 2005, as China Peoples Bank will cut money supply growth below 10 % and GDP below 8 %. and fixed investment growth below 15 %  He also predicted  Oct. 1994 to China Wuhan securities news, Wangguo,  Kuotai  securities investors, Beijin  China Financial Times, China macroeconomic control will be soft-landing 1996, Shanghai A will be traded  between 600- 800 during 1994- 1996 He recommended that China stocks will be very attractive to QFII in the new Millennium
Global central banks, economist, financial market , industrial sectors analysts, CEO  ignoring ,Dr. Huang photo  warning to ECB, JP Morgan in Rome, China Peoples Bank governor Dai central bank governors conference in Macao, Taiwan central bank governor Asian Pacific conference Taipei, APEC finance Thailand prime minister, ASEAN central bank governors conferences in Bangkok, US Fed  governors , Washington Area, NASD finance conferences 1998-2000 on  IT asset bubble bursts
US macroeconomic, inflation control  tracking, forecasts:
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted May 8, 15, 2004 to US Silicon Valley investors, radio station , and  www.osawh.com website that excessive rate and tax cuts resulted manufacturing and consumer demand pushing US Oil prices  soared above 55, gold prices rebound from 360 to 465,  metals  prices reaching 23 year high, will follow economic recovery and not transitory, facing series rate hike in summer  2004, US and global economy facing slowdown, profit squeeze,  stock markets facing bear market correction,  Dow consolidate 9500- 10700, Nasdaq 1650-1960 with stocks down 30- 50 %from  their peak
He spoke to Euro-events Singapore , Shanghai, Beijin Nov.  2003  Asian/China Finance, Capital Markets conferences lecture to 2000 QFII, QDII mutual fund managers and  China Economist annual meeting Dec. 20 and San Francisco Silicon Valley finance radio and global finance investment seminar May7,  8, 15,2004 and   www.osawh.com   website  warning  global central banks excessive rate, tax cuts, ignoring Dr. Huang's warning on this website and global conferences, underestimated global economic recovery resulted inflation,  excessive demand for housing, manufacturing, auto pushed oil, metal constructional materials prices to new high and rising cost, prices to 5000 upstream /downstream raw materials, products  due to US  excessive rate, tax cuts, Fed raising rate , too little, too late , Despite US December WPI and CPI drop due to brief oil prices dip to 40,  (down 30 % from 55)US still facing 3.3 % CPI and 4.3 % WPI inflation. soaring consumer, business demand in the final quarter 2004 will further drive  oil prices back to 50 in January cold winter and rebound to 55 in March gasoline demand, prices pick  US  will facing inflation soared to 5 % spring peaking holiday demand season .  US, global economists,  market analysts over optimistic  over the business and consumer spending twin growth engine will drive second half 2004 and continue into first quarter 2005 economic recovery, profit growth, bull market rally, Oct job creation of 337000, will repeating March , peaking out as entering peak holiday season, as December already plunged to 150,000, underestimated on the impact of US dollar depreciation, excessive rate, tax cuts , 46 trillion dollar  housing, equities wealth effect resulted excessive consumer, business demand, NAPM and consumer confidence peaking out in the second quarter and final quarter at  66   driving soaring oil, commodities, metals asset prices bubble reaching 23 year high in March, May , Oct. and extending into the first half of  2005.  US trade deficit soared to 60 billion due to excessive demand for  import and inflation, facing credit tightening, rate hikes well into 2005, profit , productivity growth , consumer confidence , business spending,  peaking out,  brief economic leading indicators rebound after declined for 6 months ,business  facing profit  squeeze in  second half  2004,  Dr. Huang accurate predicted US Job creation peaking out at March 370,000,  May 230,000, June 80,000, July only 32,000 , despite Aug 112,000, and stock prices peaking out in the Dec. 2003 ,and  Oct  2004  job creation 337,000 and retails sale peaking out   Dec. 2004 did drop to 147,000  and  2004 China and US, global stocks bull markets are over, entering bear market consolidation, any year end and January effect speculation will facing bear market correction repeating 2000, as Intel, E-Bay , GM, Delta profit decline and China SINA, Sohu disappointing earning drag internet stocks into bubble burst.   US High tech, finance, housing, retails, auto share will give up most of its 2004 gain plunge  30-50 % and  trillion dollar loss in bond and stock markets repeating 1995 and 2000  and trillion dollar profits in oil, commodity futures investments
Global economy facing inflationary slowdown accurate predicted US last quarter GDP at 3 %) and followed by stagflation this year with  stocks entering bear market consolidation, with 30- 50 % correction
US CPI at  3.3 % ,whole sale price up 4.3 %   with business  spending up 10 %, consumer confidence above 95 ISM at 66 are inflationary, facing excessive inventory built up,  oil soared to 50 currently consolidate in 44-50 due to mild winter, However cold winter ahead will drive heating oil,  and oil price traded  40- 50 gas to 8.0 and metals to  new high  this year will drive up 20 sectors raw materials 5000 products costs and prices, inflation will be back to 3.5 % in winter, as   more rate hikes are on its way to cool off the economy, bond yield will return to 4.0- 4.8 %
Daily Global top 40 World Stock Indices Futures      Daily Top 40 World Forex Currency futures
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 US banks-finance  reform, M/A,                                CBOE, NYMEX  Oil, Gas  futures Price 
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Greater China Macro-Economy, Finance, Capital Stocks Market Tracking, Forecasts:
 
 Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted Nov , 2003 on China finance, Capital Stock Markets conferences,  www.euro-events.com/conf/cfcm   picture  2  and to China economists meeting Fudan University, Shanghai , Dec. over 2000 QFII/QDII executives China continue facing credit tightening, continue well into 2005 stock markets facing bear market 30- 50 % correction, Shanghai A test 1150-1300, 
 Monetary policy impact on macroeconomic control, Asset Prices, Bubble Simulation, early warning  :
 Shanghai/Shenzhen A/B/IPO Chinese Edition China small medium  cap   ADR    mutual fund/ commodity/ bond
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Asian Economy/Capital Markets  Tracking, Forecasts  Asian Financial Crisis  Industrial Finance
Japan  China  Korea  Taiwan  Singapore   Hong Kong   India   Malaysia
  Dr. Warren Huang CV  accurately predicted  Nov. 5, 2003 in Singapore Euro-events Asian Finance, Capital stock market conferences http://www.euro-events.com/conf/afcm2003/ photos 1, 2, 3 lecture ppt   Asian stocks following US stocks into consolidation
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on this website, (Global  Capital market stock indices, currency OSA models) s witnessed, visited by million global government, central banks, banking finance, corporate , academics executives that  US and global high tech bubble burst in 2000 and  recession plunged 80 % to 1100, Dow Jones to 7450, European, Asian stocks plunged 50- 70 % during 2001-early 2003 and rebound in the second quarter 2003
Currently, global markets are over-optimistic over US second half  job creation and inflation outlook will be sustainable, pushed Dow to consolidation in  9750- 10500  Nasdaq to 1890- 2050, Asian, European, South American stock markets are all overheated for consolidation as uneven economic development, with overheated housing, auto, energy sectors bubble ready to burst while the rest of the manufacturing facing deflation due to over capacity.
US mortgage rate was up  1 %,despite recent drop to 5.6 % will rebound above before summer, while China raise bank reserve 1 % fighting excessive housing, auto loan demand and hot money inflow.
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OSA pioneer accurately predicted July 2001 on this  website and workshops for China Peoples Banks staff, Beijin, that US entering recession, Dow drag Nikkei, Henseng plunge below 9000. and wanred Nov.2001, in Beijin, Jan  2002 in Tai pei that US and Asian, European stocks and mutual fund over heated  for 30-50 % correction, oil prices soared to 28 from 16, and again on this website in July that US stocks  mid summer rally after July earning report, dollar stabilize 115-123. and again to Wall Street Journal  Mid Aug 2002 that rally is over, old economy, chips, retails blue chips (MMM, PG, CSCO, TSM, NVR, Birkshire A)stock give up all their gain for 30 % correction
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OSA  Today Journal :  2001- 2003 daily Global Financial Markets  OSA Forecasts
US and Global recession/Recovery Energy Crisis OSA: US entering initial phase of recovery is hurting by strong dollar, declining business spending , energy crisis
Dr Huang accurately predicted last Dec on this website that  market analysts overoptimistic over earning estimate like IBM , GE,MSFT, NOK, TYCO, Citigroup, Xerox and others blue chips, that IBM will plunge below 100 to test 80., MSFT to 50, , TYCO to 10 and Citigroup will be hurt by Argintina currency crisis(Argentia closing banks, FX market),  CItigroup loss 800 million in Argentina.MSFT forecast 40 % decline in XBOX and flat software growth.  Unemployment, accounting malpractices,stock market crash, resulted 7 trillion loss in wealth, cutting into consumer  spending plunged to 1.9 %, GDP only 1.1 %, Purchasing manager index plunged from 56 to 51, and Aug       manufacturing, servei facing contractrion price cutting due to excessive high inventory in chips, (NVDA) and chemicals, auto have to use no interest  promotion for inventory clearance.Market bulls challening 8800- 9000 is premature t rally to 9000 is premature, have to retest 7500-8000, Nasdaq retes 1200, SP test 800-850  double bottom.  Fortunately, weak  dollars will boost manufactruring export and profit, stable dollar , spending in the month ahead.  which will lead to modest economic and stock market recovery after  Dow Jones consolidation in 7000- 7500- 8000  , Nasdaq 1100-1250- SP in  750-850 may extend into final quarter.  lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction and recovery  investment/supply chain workshops
Global markets follow US Market bulls   repeat July 19 technical rally , specualting  Citi- group, GM, MSFT, IBM earning  pushed Dow to 8500, Nasdaq to 1350, SP to 900 ,, Russel to 400 are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125
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OSA  simulation   results will be demonstrated on all Dr. Huang workshops and conferencess investment/supply chain workshops
OSA pioneer Dr. Warren Huang predicted US first  rate hike  in May, 1999 on China peoples banks governor conference and warned on this website and www.sina.com investment forum that US high tech bubble burst in Dec. 1999 and warned China and global stock overheat, to Beijin China Peoples bank staff this website July 2001: US entering  recession drag Shanghai A from 2100 to 1500, Dow, Henseng, Nikkei  plunge below 9000, Taiwan index below 3500)
Oil Prices, Energy Crisis Impact Simulation: Demand   for oil  will pickup as  economic entering recoery and entering peak summer demand, continued OPEC cut in production.  near term oil  prices 25-29, and heating oil  70-79 Gasoline , traded between  70-88, rising oil energy feedstock. products  and petrochemical prices  improve Du Pont, Kodak and other oil, petrochemicals profit   stock prices are short lifed, facing profit squeez.. However, downstream end  users, having trouble passing the costs will squesz upstream profit: supply chain cost reduction, process improvement workshop
Global Banking Finance stocks Merger  Performance:  Big is beautiful or Risky ? Default crisis, risk control. Too big to fail? They all failed (including Citigroup mega merger in 1998 LTCM crisis, JPM-Chase merger  fail again in Enron scandal,  They all failed in risk management.  Merger will not improve banking earning decline 25 % and default up 50 % , investment banking income down 25 %, . only our  risk management workshops can help then save trillion dollar market loss   Global first half and this  year corporate earning decline due to recession resulted prices weakness daily   top quality old economy and Nasdaq stocks prices compression, buy/sell/hold investment   strategy
 Monetary policy impact on Crude oil, global petrochemicals, plastics prices,  earning, stock prices
Global Telecom, wireless, ADR  stock prices compression and investment strategy 
  China sina.com  Shanghai, Shenzhen most active stocks prices OSA, Strategy Chinese      
  Taiwan's oversold bargain  old economic below 10 dollars  stocks   prices, OSA Chinese 
Japan ADRs and most active shares  OSA/forecast        KoreaADRs and most active shares  OSA/forecast
Monetary policy impact on AOL top 10 stock  , BW global infotech 100 earning, stock prices
Two master hands controlling global economy, stock  index, corporate earning and stocks prices simulation

Global Fiancial Makret Information Knowledge based  prices simulation, forecasts decision analysis:
Artificial intelligence , neural net, fuzzy logic Integrating central banks monetary policy impact simulatio, causes and responses of financial markets prices dynamics:
A. Information:  20 years daily Wall Street Journals, Financial times, China securities, Shangahi securities, Hong Kong, Tawian Economics news and  daily global financial markets data
B. Knowledge:: Artificial Intelligence neural net, fuzzy logic  combine Demand side monetary and industrial supply, demand, prices  economics, corporate finance, and  daily  markets analysis, investors Bull, Bear senitments(technical charting ), markets strategy  training and feedback from 30 millions government regulation, banking, finance executives, fund managers, traders, investors market psychology in  Dr. Huang's nationwide radio and TV financial market risk management  program and conference lectures in Taiwan, Japan and China, US, Europe
REcession recovery impact on Asian  IT  global  energy,  asset bubble , banking , financial crisis,  credit risks  simulation , control He accurately  warning   in July 2001  the US and global stocks overheat due to financial market analyst overoptimistic over second half  global  earning rebound   ignoring  US, EURO Asian slowdown  daily tracking of Global hot  ADR shares,  dailymost active hot stocks  prices,  and   weekend edition
Dr. Huang accurately predicted Oct 2000 and  July 2001 on this website that US stocks enters final phase of  compression, deflation  Dow , Nieeki, Henseng plunge to 9000  Nasdaq below 1400    plunging prices   US old economics Dow  stocks overheated , finance, retails insurance , stocks  will give up all it's gain as oil stock bubble burst lead by ENRON billions dollar loss  acurrately predicted by Dr. Huang  
Dow  Jones 
Plunging investors and consumer confidence and consumer spending in the second quarter extend inot third quarter, with Aug manufacr\uring, service index facing contraction 6 %   Unemployment, accounting malpractices,  Soaring oil prices, energy, feedstock costs  , Plunging dollar, corporate scandal, earning revised downward will hurt investors confidences, drag US stocks continued consolidation into the final quarter, retest 7500-8000, Nasdaq test 1150-2100 , SP test 800 despite bulls speculating on CSCO, DELL, and Fed rate cut challenging 8800-9000  predicted by Dr. Huang   earlier    
Stocks Buy/Sell/Hold Review OSA  , forecast for earning decline and stock prices   compression MMM  will plunge into  90- 110, MSFT to  40- 45correction, NVDA to 6- 8-  PG , AIG to 65-75, NVR 250-275  All old economy retail blue chip stocks and global mutual fund  making new high this year will plunge 30- 50 % and new economy stocks to give up most  of its gain( as DRAM price plunged from 4.8 to  2.6 due to excessive inventory, TSM plunged to new low of  5.5))Overoptimistc over banking,  finance, real estate,  IC, computer, network,oil upstream/ downstream,  retail, health care, saving and loan  sectors facing poor  credit quality, bad loan and derivatives, junk bond trading loses and drug, biotech sectors lack new products markets  retail stocks facing deep discount for inventory clearance, 
Global markets follow US Market bulls  repeat July 19 technical rally , specualting   Citi- group, GM, MSFT, IBM earning  pushed Dow to 8500, Nasdaq to 1350, SP to 900 ,, Russel to 400 are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125
Special Report:  Interest Rate,  oil prices impact on US industrial sector  second   half 2002 sales, earning Simulation forecasts and investment strategy  
Falling prices and profits in all manufacturinig sectors due to  weakeniing demand  most active  hotstocks,, Global Infotech 100 strategy and  Silicon Valley IT

Nasdaq :CSCO, TSM, HWP, AMAT , INTC , DELL , IBM upgrade over-optimistic on  second half   outlook  overheated  due to   business investment  index decline . Over capacity in telecommunication, optic fibers, PC, Chips , resulted profit decline and loss will drag chips demand prices, stock prices Nasdq  , have to consolidation - 1100-1250  , due to accounting malprctice  fear , Iraq war and west coast lockout worry, plunging profits    buy/sell/hold click global IT 100 and Silicon Valley top 100
S&P will be traded 750-850   Russel small cap index will be consilidated 250-350
Asian Business, Economics, Currency, Stocks ,Fund,  Corporate merger, IPO/ADR, ABS  investment strategy
Asian  Banking, Financial Crisis is back again,risk management, banking reform, is necessary(workshops) as Dr. Huang accurately predicted  Japan's central bank will supply money by raise 50 % bond   and 17 banks facing 700 billion nonperformance loan, downgraded trigger sell off in Japan banking, finance shares, although Nikkei rebound earlier to 12000 due to weak  Yen resulted  export rebound ended in July 2002 as dollar plunged to 116  drag  Nikkei to 9400 , 18 year new low,already spread into Hong Kong banking shares plunge 40 % , Henseng plunged below  9600, , US slowdown, stock plunge will darg Nikkei into 9000-10000   consolidation  , Asian stock will be down 30- 50 %
He accurately predicted Hong Kong, Singapore banking, preperties stocks  stocks are overheated, starting 30 %correction . Weak dollar , prices slump cutting into trade surplus, put pressure on Asian currencies appreciation, New economy IT and old manufacturing and banking finace stocks all suffered by stocks slump   export slowdown, falling profits banking, finance will facing bad loan and possible financial crisis. Asian economy drag by US into 1991 style recession recovery (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Korea  )
China Economy, stocks market simulation Investing strategy::
China monetary policy impact on macro, financial markets regulation, supervision,  trade economic: Asian recession and   Banking, Financial Crisis is back again,risk management, banking reform, is necessary(workshops)
,Dr. Huang accrately predicted China and global stock overheat, to Beijin China Peoples bank staff this website July 2001: US entering  recession drag CHina export growth decline fromm 40 % to 5 % m1 money supply growth decline from 24 % to 12.96, m2 money supply growth decline from 18 % to 10.5 %,Shanghai A from 2100 to 1370
China  is pulling out of slowdown by US strong consumer demand  as China first 9 month export growth at 15 %, with third quarter export growth soared 28.9 % and Forengn Direct investment up  25 % led to first   half  GDP growth at 7.8 %  and third quarter GDP growth  8.1 %  industrial production up 16.5 %, However, retails growth slowed to 8.9 % due to stock market wealth droped 20 % from  last year's peak , export prices drop 2 % due to global slowdwon resulted defaltion. hurt by .Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs, US slowdown, falling prices will hurt China old economy,  corporate earning performance as China import 50 % oil simulation Charts will be demonstrated on all Dr Huang's  investment/supply chain workshops
  China 2002 money supply growth is  14.5 %  and second half 13 %- 14 %. fortunately home and auto  loan soared to 500 billion Yuan will boost consumer spending and supporting domestic economy , despite negative impact from  stock market slump.  stop state owned share selling provide  some prices support for stocks, but insufficent to rally over 1750 .
Investment opportunties and risks ahead   in China stocks
Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B stock Index Daily  High flier, IPO,most active, high tech, low prices stocks China sina.com  Shanghai, Shenzhen most active stocks prices OSA Simulation/Forecasts , Strategy Chinese     
Dr. Huang accurately predicted on speech to China Peoples Bank financial market and stock markets staff in Beijing on July 30, 2001 that due to global slowdown drag earning decline resulted Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B stocks high tech stocks bubble burst:
US recovery boosted China export, soaring oil prices, global slowdwon, rising oil prices, and US west coast lockout   will hurt  China eocnomy and  profits
China recent IPO: Unicom hurt by global competition in telecom, at 2.3 for Shanghai A will drag Shanghai low prices shares and SHanghai A plunge below 1500 and Unicom will folllow low prices shares approaching 3.2 ( SINOPEC)down to 3. 2, SHanghai Airline will stay at 4.00-5.5 , drag by Unicom., while Koda may dip below it's 14-20 IPO prices due to plunging global and Shanghai markets sentiments. However, bullish economic news provide some support at 1500
Shanghia A   traded between 1450-1580 SHenzhen A    between   2950-3200 Shanghia B   traded between  125-135 SHenzhen B    between 200-225
Dr Huang accurately predicted here in May 2001 that  Shanghai and Shenzhen A markets are overheated by sector rotation  speculating on, ST block (restructuring) high-tech stocks and B shares  with Shanghai A soared from 1850 to 2200, SHanzhen from 4400 to 5000 , to support the investor sentiment for  for China GEM stocks ignoring falling global demand and prices for high tech products, will giveup all it's recent gains going for 15 -30% correction and B market bubble burst for 50 % correction, consolidation with Shanghia A  near term traded between 1500-1600 SHenzhen A near term trade, between2800-3200 on disappointing   earning report shown only 40 % coporate earning gain, 60 % flat to decline while114 company suffered loss,  IPO stocks and ST block stocks  earning are dispointing due to rising oils, raw material, energy costs and falling products prices.followed by B share, ST block and  high priced high tech stocks IPO bubble burst, plunge 30-50 % : Yunyou plunged from 120 to test 30 ( Huagong, Yian, Tsinghwa, will be down compressed to 30-40-    from 68, as Yinquanshai    plunged from 50  to  1  due to accounting irregularity(like US ENRON)  as  government step up financial industry regulation and risk management., China  Hitech plunged from 42 to 10  and most other high tech, computer internet stock  with disapponiting earning will be compressed to 20- 40, while medium priced stocks( 11-25) are hurt by disppointing banking, finance, high priced high tech , drug, earn TV appliance stock(hurt by Konka, Chonghon facing loss.
The latest IPO SINOPEC lead the Low priced  stocks priced between 3-4  in paper, cement, steel, petrochemicals are facing rising oils, raw materials  and fuel costs have little room for growth. but will provide future rebound despite ST blocks earning decline drag stock price down to belwo 15 to 3-5
The latest IPO SINOPEC, rebound to 3.8 due to soaring downstream PE prices, however is hurting by soaring oil prices  will be traded between 3.1- 3.4
Dr. Huang accurately predicted last July in Beijin the bubble burst of B shares :CHina opening B share for domestics investors pushed B shares converging to A shares, However, due to poor earning outlook, speculating is over !, both shares will be retreating in the week ahead SHanghai B will be arouond 125 -150 Shenzhen B around 200-250 
Housing markets still facing oversupply, ,finance industry hurt by weak loan demand, small interest spread, nonperformance loan and fallingS corproate profits due to price cutting WTO impact. China recent hike crude oil, fuel prices, will cutting inot petrochemical, fibers industry profits, ending recent rally in that industry.. and no leading drug in drug industry for profit generation put ceiling in stock prices , Click for today's most active, high prices stocks, high tech stocks analysis
Dr Huang accurately predicted  last year that All IPO are doubled,   facing 30- 50 % correction pressure   ST/PT shares : while speculateive with operating loss shares, prices -10- 32 should be down 50 % to ?below  8-12
China ADR shares are under price compression by CHL and CHU, PTR(PetroChina) benefited by soaring oil price, look attractive belwo 13 while SNP hurt by falling  products prices    look atractive below 13 
Taiwan Economy and stocks:
Asian  Banking, Financial Crisis is back again,risk management, banking reform, is necessary   (workshops)  for prevent trillion dollar market loss and nonperformance loan
Taiwan Monetary policy impact on economy GDP, export, currency, stocks markets simulation forecasts:
Taiwan  export return to growth will help GDP return to growth.  it will be hurt by  soaring oil prices
Dr Huang accurately prdicted in April that Taiwan Stock index follow Nasdaq speculate above 6300-6500  especially the IT and petrochemical sectors are overheated Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs , economic slowdown, caporate earning warning will hurt old economy  corporate earning performance   will drag  Dow  consolidate 7000-7500-8500 Nasdaq 1100-1290   and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction   simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops Will be following US Nasdaq over accounting scandal, war  fear, falling profit,  facing consolidation in  3500-4000 -4500  OTC index 90- 105  due to 30-50 % correction in high priced electronic and biotech stocks, petrochemical stocks to plunge below  100( TSM plunged from 94 to 35, Wise technology from 160 to 40, Linfa from 800 to 200 , Ginhau, Hunda all plunge below 100
Global markets follow US Market bulls  repeat July 19 technical rally , specualting   Citi- group, GM, MSFT, IBM earning  pushed Dow to 8500, Nasdaq to 1350, SP to 900 ,, Russel to 400 are excessive,  have to repeat  correction and consolidation   7000-7500-8000 , 1100-1200 drag global stocks, mutual fund into 35% correction dollar overheated stabalized at 119-125, Taiwan index soared to 4500 excessive will retest 3500-4000 for   consolidation
Dr. Huang accurately predicte July 2001 in Beijin that  will be repeat1995 missle crisis retreat back to test  3500-4000   Dr. Huang accurately predicted    export growth   decline in    M2 money supply growth down to 5 %, unemployment peaking at   5.5% GDP   facing recession( 2001  drag NT to 34.7-35.5, Facing  financial storm, declining old economy and electronic share profits, He also waned in Jan 2002  market and semiconductors   sectors specualtion by the market on  first   half IC recovery is overoptimistics with index will retrest  3500-4000- , Weishen, Honhai, Taita, will be plunged  belw90--100, TSM will be down to30-40    UMC to 15-25 , Chunghwa Telecom 40 -   despite Merril, Goldman Sach upgarde on   Electronic, old economy, and China  related hot stocks OSA facing 30-50 % correction 
 Dr. Huang accurately predicted last year over heated high flyer (over 100) chips, networks, fiberoptics,  start 50-80  % correction   drag  the index  plunge below   3400  Soaring oil prices cutting into old economy stocks prevent the    government  stabilization fund and measurement support for quality   converntional stocks.  petrochemical s, cement, steel, paper, metal, transportation, fibers all rebounded , However,  all hurt by rising raw material, energy costs, falling prices,,   though stock prices have fully reflected the declining earning, with limited downside risk,.upside potential is also limited , Finance and bankinf\g stocks suffered by nonperformance loan and plunging stocks WITH LIMITED GROWTH POTENTIAL  
Hong Kong Economy , Henseng Index  simulation and blue, red chips, high tech, GEM, CHina H., B shares
 US and Hong Kong ,Asian  banking stocks plunging 30 % reacting toSouth American Argentina defaut and Brazil junk bond yield soared  and Japan 17 banking stocks 700 billion  nonperformance loan accurately predicted by Dr. Huang Asian financial crisis in March 2001
Dr. Huang accurately predict in May 2002 that Henseng Index follow Dow Jones rebound  overheated., will consolidation in 8600-9000-  due to Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs falling properties, and industrial products prices (Hong Kong is entering deflation) will hurt old economy  corporate earning performance will drag  Dow  consolidate 7000- 7500-8000 , Nasdaq 1100-1250-   and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction  simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops further compression in finace and properties stocks in 40- 60 Dr. Huang accurately predicted global slowdown will drag Henseng index , to test  8000-9000-9500
Blue, Red   chips, High tech, H shares  most active  Stocks Prices compression, investment opportunties, risks:Weekend edition
WHampoa will be down  to  40-50 -CHeKong,down to 40-50   HSBC and Henseng bank,down to 70-  80 China mobil test15- 20-   Unicom down to 3-  5   , facing selling pressure ,accurately predicted by Dr. Huang recommended buy predicted.  ,  SHK  40-60-   premature for property market rally ,property,  finance banking stocks are hurt by  nonperformance loan due to plunge stocks, rising US  interest rates GDP will be slowdown to 2 % in the second half  and next year follow US slowdown  and stock market retreat 20 % Redchip index test 900-  1000 , H shares will folow B share plunge 30- %
 Merger/acquisition performance, investment strategy:
PCCLF aggressive acquisition of HKT and othersare subject to post mergre integration   to improve profitability to support it's stock prices recent asset selling to reduce debt hurt stock prices, plunged to  3. GEM share  Tom.com 600 million merge China Gounzhou 163.com are too expensive and will not improve it's operating loss of 40 million, stock prices will test new low.
IPO Dr. Huang  accurately predicted GEM share rally  ended, Fudan electronic emphasized on low profit consumer electronics stock  around 3 dollars, Beida  green bird, at 22 are overpriced, whith  huge loss, little revenue, the stock will be down below  5 China SHanchon Pharmacy share up 76 % to 1.9, Chinese medicine facing sharp competition in China, share  prices are falling with decline profit. Shanchun share growth is limited  at 2( not as attractive as other H and red chipshares like PetroChina at the same prices, whil Pan ocean hotel will be down below  one dollar, yinan internet is not attrative as H shares. is very profitable HK exchange will be in 10-15 GEM shares and  Excel will test 1.00 
Singapore Strait Times index  :1300- 1480 : Blue chip banking( , properties , chips shares stocks    follow US Nasdaq resume slide  to test 1100- 1200- due to    falling properties prices and  loan, slumping stocks , housing markets and IC prices
Japan . economy and money supply   , Dr. Huang accurate predicted that due to   US recovery, weak Yen will boost Japan export and economy. . It grew 5.6 % in the first quarter 2002,. However, US dollar plunge and slowdown in demand in the second quarter will hurt Japan export and economy, led to bank of   Japan increase money supply   unemployment  at   5.4%  it's still weak domestic economy, weak consumer spending and demand,  GDP will face contraction Nikkei index follow US Nasdaq plunge  to 9000-10000 due to banking industry soaring bad loan,  strong Yen resulted  export decline,  declining profit. plunging stock prices Japan's  auditiing and shares  back   banking industry to solve the bad loan will drag banking finance stock for 50 % correction and rebound,  Nieeki support at 8000- 8500 and for banking and export stocks.   Bank of Japan www.boj.or.jp/en Japan economy will be drag by US into 1991 style    recession
Japanese Yen currency :  Yen  between 120- 125  US and Japan  recovery, strong Yen hurt export resulted shrinking and trade surplus   support  
Nikkei  Stock Index:  Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs will hurt old economy  corporate earning performance, bad loan drag banking, properties prices for 30% correction  will drag by  Dow  consolidate 7000-7500-8000  Nasdaq 1000-1250  and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction Nikkei will  consolidation 8000-9300-
S. Korea economy, daily financial markets, stock prices
S. Korea economy,   corporate debt (especially the chaebol) debt still runnig as high as 200 %of equity and 50 % of GNP. Seoul stock Korea will face slowdown and falling prices due to US and EURO    slowdwon and  IC  prices  plunge   GDP growth supported by strong housing demand  250 % increase in home loan and 15 % increase in prices  GDP will be down to 4.6  %
click for Korea economy and  Seoul Stock Index simulation
S. Korea domesitcs demand overheated, household load doubled, housing prices up 15 %, resulted defaults, facing bubble burst, Seoul stock index  Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs , overheated domestics economy, facing interest rate hike will hurt old economy   corporate earning performance will drag by Dow  consolidate 7000- 7500-8000 , Nasdaq 1000- 1100-1350-  and lead to Asian, Euro stocks 35 % correction  simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops   Seoul stock index  consolidation  550- 650  despite US analyst specualtate on overoptimistics second half chips rebound   indicated  by  Intel , PC, network earning decline will  drag  Korea  high priced  chips, PC , telecom earning. stocks prices and export  facing slowdwon, put pressure on Won exchange rate and Seoul stock index    doubled (as chips prices doubled WON  will be traded between 1180- 1250,   Rising oil prices   t will hurt  WON   
EURO economy, daily  financial markets, stock prices
  EURO rebound   by weak EURO,  and US recovery Soaring oil prices and energy, feedstock costs strong EURO will hurt old economy   corporate earning performance will drag   Euro stocks  35 % correction  simulation   results can be found on  his investment/supply chain workshops EURO   will be traded  0.95-1.00, EURO out of recession GDP will be below 1.5 % due to strong EURO ,EURO US , ASian  slowdown
EURO stocks follow US stocks  retreat     reflecting US, EURO slowdown and strong EURO  resulted prices cutting, earing  and export decline,  click for EURO    Monetary Policy Impact on 11 member country  Growth, money, currency, stocks, bond  prices
EURO, UK   hot Finance, IT stocks  ADR shares simulation, forecasts, investment strategy
EURO, UK   hot Finance, IT stocks  ADR shares simulation, forecasts, investment strategy
Market Bull psychology, strategy:
Market bull  believe bull market  year end , post election rally, January rally    continue to push Dow to  12500 and even 20,000, Nasdaq will challenge 5100 again
Bull Strategy: Think all the bad news are over, use  sectors rotation among high tech and finance groups sepculate on any economic  and Bush win the president news to speculate on Drug, tobaco, energy stocks, MSFT, JPM, finance stocks( and  GDP, CPI, PPI, job data)indicating economic slowdown to justify no rate hike or even rate cut and corporate merger and on track earning  PG and Acatel,INTC and IBM, JDSU and upgrade  news( like recnet financial industry   Use JPM Citigroup, Chase, Goldman Sach, UBS and optic fibers JDSU, Corning, Nortel merge and last week's JDSU upbeat earning ignoring GTW,DELL, NITE, Catterpillar, UAL,  KODAK,Apple , LU, HD, GM, IBM, BAC, CMB, Lucnet   disappointing earning  and   more to come ,   still insist S&P index will be up 18 % by year end,  Bargain hunting in finance,   chips(NVDA), optic fibers, networks(JNPR, PALM stocks( down 30 % recently) even  Nasdaq  broke 3200 support testing 3000, The market will not turnaround, until the bulls died  
Market Bear psychology and strategy:
Markets bears worried about  soaring oil price and weak EURO cutting into old economics profits,economic slowdown may lead to corporate earning decline, job cuts, recession,  Decline PPI, CPI indicating faling corporate sales and   profit for both the old and new economy.Intel marked begening of global slowdwon and earning decline in old and new economy    INTC, EK, APPL DELL, LU, HD stock plunge up to 50 % aftter earning decline, more to come . Sell   ino the rally, buy  until Dow plunge to below 9000, Nasdaq down to 2500 for long term investment. Bear dominant the markets as earning decline news drag    market down   ,(retail,finance,  and  PC,  chips, telecom petrochemicals, airlines) announced earning growth decline in the second half, old economy will be suffered worse impact by the slowdown (further hurt by weak EURO and rising oil prices)than the new economy( The old economy productivity have been flat, while computer, semiconductor, telecommunication productivity gained 50 %) .  and US Chase Manhatten, Bank America shown slowdown, dissapointing retail and PC sales, final quarter and next year earning decline due to Rate hike impact on  US Industrial demand and profitability, stock prices and investment strategy, change of presidency will not improve any earning outllook, chasing after the stocks will be another bear trap
Nasdaq Markets using CIEN upbeat earning (up 5 time)and overoptimistic overnext year growth to speculate on fiber optics stocks,CIEN, GLW, JDSU stock, soared up to 60 % , pushed NAsdaq to 2900 again , ignoring PC sales facing down 15 %, chips sales are suffering are overheated will face profit takinig, to giveup it's agian, test 2500 again    Dr. Huang accurately predicted on hotstocksAfter technical rebound to 2950  on NOK give overoptimistic bullish estimate on next 3 year year 30 % sales gain,  will  test 2500-2750    ,PC sales slump 30 % at Apple and  Gateway lead to 4 th quareter loss stock plunge to 15. chips, network  stocks  Drag b INTC Applied materials , ALTR , AMD, d  NTAP warning on fourth quarter slowdwon lead to crash of high flier network  stocks plunge 50 %, BRCM, JNPR, ITWO,   already broke  100, as predicted, It will  retest 40-60 after strong rebound   that DRAM plunge below 4 chips stocks overpriced) .  Dr. Huang accurately predicted  price war among IT will drag Nasdaq to new lows:   INTC will   face AMD in pentium 4  vs Athlon and palomerlo, in 20- 50 % price cut, NVDA face ATI in graphic card, ORCL face SEBL , SAP, PSFT, in high end business application , HWP, face DELL, Compaq, IBM and more to come will ;ead Nasdaq  restest 2800 drag by HWP  poor earning and high flier biotech shares (PDLI, HGSI) fiber optics, networks(JNPR, ARBA, ITWO,  BRCM, test 100))  as predicted by Dr Huang that the market use overoptimistic CSCO, QCOM,IBM, INTC, JDSU , JNPR, CPQ earning  and post election rally resulted overpriced semiconductors, computer, fiiber optics, networks stocks prices   on  most active hotstocks  and  in Aug  that fiber optices high flier JDSU, SDLI, CIEN, GLW, JNPT, ARBA, ITWO are overpriced, ignoring slowdown  and falling prices next year , stocks should be plunge  50 % to bel ow   100.   ,  The poor fiber optices sales outlook will drag the group for further consolidation most active hotstocks recommed  to buy   MSFT, NOK, INTC , TSM, UMC, NVDA, ALTR , JDSU, JNPR  Nasdaq around 2750  these share up 40 %   the markets are overoptimistics about INTC, NOK, MSFT and fiber optic  next 6 months earning growth, ignoring slowdown in demand and price cutting ono chips, PC  as   INTC, AMD , fiber oopticsprices cutting just started, which will hurt earning and extend to PC industry) AOL, YHOO stock plunge drag high flier network, fiber optices stocks resume correction due to over supply, prices cutting  hotstocks, Global Infotech 100 strategy and  Silicon Valley ITas Nasdaq around   2500    
Yahoo 132 milion merge Taiwan internet portal  KIMO will expand it's Taiwan market, will have hard time penetrate into China and Hong Kong markets and contribute any profit to Yahoo near termYahoo stock will be testing 50 again 
IPO OSA strategy: IFCN, vacuum pump maker will be hurt by economic slowdwon too, will be dwon 50 % bel ow  it's IPO price to 7, most  recent IT and biotech IPO suffered huge loss will be plunge 50 % below IPO prices
Dr. Huang accurately predicted  on  information technology IPO that Chips CPU maker Transmeta (TMTA)  cheap crusoe challenge INTC Pentium, this startup co with revneue only 4 million but huge loss of 41 million, the stock prices specualted by instututional investors on new with Microsoft, CHina market potential soared from 21 to 47 is overpriced will plunge 50 % to 21 
Rate hike threat :Tighten credit by banks in the third  quarter already lead to loan demand growth down form 12. 5% to 7.5 in July.  Manufacturing coooff with NAPM index down to 4 8 signifiantly cut demand ( except energy sector) , falling prices in chips, auto, retails lead to Aug PPI, CPI decline dispite June-July stock rally Nasdaq rebound from 3000 to 4 275:   pushed  Sept. consumer spending up 1.1 %and business spending peaking and retail sales up 0.7 % , However recent stock markets plunge due to worry about earning decline will cut into consumer spending, achieving soflanding goal , take pressure off Fed to raise the rate

"Two master hands controlling global stock markets prices"     Hosted by Dr. Warren Huang
1.Operations Simulation Analysis of   Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on US economic indicators, daily   interest rates, currency, stock prices
Go to Chinese edition of sina investment forum Q  & A for  Daily US  dollars, blue chips, IPO,   interneet, biotech  stocks prices  simulation, investment tracking ( was offered to 30 million China investors during 1994-1998(English edition will be ready soon)
NOV 22, 1999
Q: Stocks keeps going up, are we going have crash ?
Answer : Dr. Huang :  The crazier it get, the riskier we will have crash only apply to those stocks like Internet IPOs, and China stocks. As matter of fact, we already seen crash Hong Kong style on China Prosperity (CPIH)the stocksorared from 1 to 80 then crashed to 10 in three days, (, refer to this week paper on How China stocks controlled by two master hands ) US stocks is entering final stages of rotation of interests to blue chips stocks( All my recommendations last week on IBM, Microsoft, Intel, Biogen, Amgen, Aol, Yahoo go up more than 10 to 20 % ) before the year end and early next year when corporate profit decline due to rising interest rates in US and EURO and inventory built-up due to Y2K. We will see big markets corrections, especially those crazy stocks in Nasdaq, the high fliers will face more than 50 % correction

Dec. 5 1999
Q: Will US  economy going into bubble burst as Japan ?
A: Dr. Huang : Dr Huang presented his US and Japan bubble burst simulation on Thailand's globalization conference on Oct. 22, Bangkok, and May 15 Macao central bank governor conference and Washington DC, business, government risk management conference that :   US economic bubble burst twice in 1980 and 1990 all due to high inflation resulted by  excessive money supply while oil prices doubled. How ever this time oil prices doubled, with inflation ony at 2.7 %, due to Asian slowdown. However, excessive US money supply and low interest rate already pushed Dow Jones and housing prices doubled, even at all time high productivity as it happen in Japan in the 1980's , with low inflation only at 2.4 %, and high productivity, with Japanese appliance, auto dominant global markets ,allow Bank of Japan kept low interest rate at 3.5 % and high money supply growth at 13 %, pushed Nikkei from 25000 to 38000, and soaring housing prices. finally, forced BOJ to tighten the money supply growth to 5 %,Nikkkei crashed to 20,000, bubble burst in 1990.
Therefore, Booming stocks and housing prices will eventually leading to bubble burst as Greenspan repeated on his Aug 27, Oct 22, Nov. 4, speech
Q. Will Fed raised interest rate in Feb?
A: yes, if the stocks and housing market and oil price  continue it's current uptrend, Fed will definitely raise the rate
Q: How can we invest in EURO stocks:
A: As Dr Huang recommended EMU stocks on his speech to Nov 2 Rome's post EURO finance, banking strategy conference( sponsored by Morgan bank, EURO stocks up more than 50 % since then.
However, EURO has inflation problem too (hurt by soaring oil prices), as it raised interest rate 0.5 % to slowdown and money supply and growth . Therefore, it's stocks will go along with Dow Jones in future
corrections.  It will be good time to invest in European High tech growth fund or ADR shares, like German Fund and others. 
Jan 28, 2000 Question on When US economy wil slowdon ?
Dr. Warren Huang reply on the timing of US economic slowdown:
Usually, the economy will slowdown 3 months after interest rate hike through monetary tightening, assumeing the stock markets retreat after the interest rate hike, as we have een housing starts, construction, spending, durable good order all down 10 % in last Oct. after June interest rate hike and July Aug, stock markets 10 % correction. However, the stock markets rebound and continue making new high, due to 200 billion cash infjection into the monetary system for Y2K protection last Nov. resulted excessive money supply and the foreigh capital pouring into US stocks, fueling housing demand and prices, pushed up consumer, business demand in Nov. and year end rebound in housing, and tight labor market, overheated economy with GNP above 5.8 %
Thats why Greenspan has to raise interest rate in Feb and more to come until slowdown in consumer and business spending.
With Y2K over, Fed took back to money return to tightening , that why US stocks retreat in early January Therefore Dow and Nasdaq must make minimum 10 % correction and stay for at least two months, it will be reflected on consumer, business spending, unemployment, We will see slowdown after March , or in the second quarter, GDP down from 5 % to 2.5 %

8 Paper series OSA Global Financial Market SImulation and Investment RIsks Management

2.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy , WTO impact on China economic indicators, daily  interest rates, currency, stock prices
Go to Chinese edition of sina investment forum Q  & A for  Daily Shanghai, Shenzhen A, B, China ADR shares stocks simulation, investment tracking ( was offered to 30 million China investors during 1994-1998(English edition will be ready soon)
3.Chinese edition of Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy , WTO impact on   Taiwan economic indicators, daily  interest rates, currency, stock prices
4. Chinese edition Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Hong Kong  economic indicators, daily  interest rates, currency,blue, red chips, China stocks, H shares, GEM stock prices
5.Chinese edition of Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on commodity, financial futures, derivatives stock prices and risk management
6.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on corporate pre/post mergers performance, stock prices and risk management
7.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on banking, finance,  real estate properties industries performance and  stock prices and risk management
8.Operations Simulation Analysis of  Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on IPO performance, stock prices, and  risk management

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