| Global Financial Crisis Causes, Early Warning Recession, Recovery , Exit Strategy Risk Management Strategy for India ---- Proactive Structural analysis :
Credit, Financial Crisis,
Recession, Recovery , Exit Strategy Impact on
Indian Housing, Financial, Manufacturing Asset
Bubbles Risks
Early Warning Workshops
Mumbai, Delhi , Oct 21-24, 2009 for Indian banking, finance and manufacturing
senior executives
| Develop,
implemented by top down and bottom up strategic- execution OSA team directed by
Dr. Warren Huang
Global Financial Crisis Causes,
Early Warning
Recession, Recovery, Exit Strategic Macro ,Value Investing, Risk Management Workshops---- Proactive Structural analysis
:Select your countries and industry among ( US ,
China, Hong
Kong, Taiwan, India,
Russia ECB, ASEAN countries, Japan, Korea)
by
OSA asset pricing
mechanism crisis, risks management pioneer Dr. Warren
Huang
website:
www.osawh.com
San Francisco
USA
email
wh3928@yahoo.com
by Quantitative top down country, industry,
company specific macro-financial decisions modeling top strategic OSA
team and bottom up execution OSA teams through Proactive Structural Dynamic
macro, financial and commodities future ,housing, equities asset prices bubbles
mechanism, supporting strategic macro and value investing and Risks
Hedging Valuation
Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)
by OSA proactive structural
asset pricing pioneer Dr/Prof. Warren Huang Global
Finance, Capital Markets,
Macroeconomic
Integration Proactive
Strategic Simulation (two master hands controlling) optimal solution coping
with policy tri-lemma problem in global capital markets growth without asset
prices bubbles
Proactive Recession fighting Strategy
Institutional Investors
Wealth Management Corporate Finance Int'l Finance
CPA/CFA/CFO training
Global
Strategic Management Proactive investment, risk management: OSA two master
hands controlling global macro economy
, finance, capital market
prices
for QFII/QDII managers,
private, institutional investors investment workshops
achieve sustainable profit
growth
Bring your past, current operations, investment, financial risks
management and future problem to these 2 day 4 units conference workshops, You will take home from Dr Warren Huang the
what, why, how and timing of causes, onset, recovery, early warning of
current financial crisis and trillion dollar strategic financial investment and
Manufacturing enterprises risks
management and billion dollar supply chain cost reduction solution to
maximize sustainable risk adjusted return
Dr. Warren Huang, Pioneer of proactive structural simulation of Global Housing,
Commodities, Equities Asset Demand, Prices Mechanism tracking forecast
Credit, Financial Crisis, Recession, causes, onset, recovery, risks early warning
and
impact on Economy, housing, equities, currency,
oil, energy, metals, commodity,, IT manufacturing assets and derivative
prices and financial and enterprises risk valuation mechanism early
warning , predicted year, month ahead of last
30 years crisis and recession ,capitalized on
hedging trillion dollar recession ,value chain , investment profit while avoided trillion
dollar loss in housing MBS, CMBS, CDO, CDS , equities market price bubble
burst investment and hedging loss due to
current statistical , probability based macro, financial decision modeling
asset pricing, credit rating and VaR risks valuation betting on the wrong
side of investment.
Has developed, implemented proactive structural decision analysis trackng last
30 years recession, crisis, supporting goal, mission, performance oriented strategic, ( top, senior
management), and executive (managerial ) market, credit, operational risk
management business unit, integrating into core business units ( finance, supply
demand, market sales chain) reporting to CEO on weekly and daily basis maximize
risk adjusted return . He has over 30 years development, implementation
of oil, petrochemical , IT and downstream supply- value chain profit
optimization and risk management experiences for US,China, Taiwan multinational
and 80 countries senior executives training
He lectured China, US, Taiwan 15 cities TV, radio 30 million fund
managers, investors , Taiwan 300,000 impor/export members 20 industrial
sectors trade stradgy,24 global central banks governors , risk management
conferences , thousands workshops for global investment, banking,
mortgage, manufacturing CEO, senior executives tracking forecast last 20 year
global financial, energy crisis, recessions, risks early warning
He predicted ,warned global MBS, CDO managing directors on current
China, US, equities, housing bubble burst financial crisis last through
2009 drag stocks , oil, commodities prices into 70 % , housing 30-50 % correction on
Peking
University Int'l financial risks management conference and Wall Street Journal
Market Beat Blog Sept 2007
and Pudong Shanghai March, 2008 to global investment
banks senior executives and master class workshop , keynote speakers on 2009 China derivatives market summit forum Pudong,
Mar 8, and Deleveraged finance and merger-acquisition private fund summit
in Hong Kong, Feb 25, 2009 predicted US housing bubble burst , recession, credit, financial crisis,
capital markets , bottom out in recession recovery n March and China Economic, capital market outlook responding to Infrastructure Program to boost domestic demand in fighting
the global recession and crisis and panelist on Challenges on China derivatives and merger acquisition , financing markets
Indian economy is very much similar to China economy. With overheated housing and equities price bubbles escaped this financial crisis and recession due to stable information industry and domestic consumer oriented economy supporting housing prices during this period maintain sound banking financial industry, which are less sophisticated than US operation ,with less leveraged in structural finance activity which caused trillion dollar turmoil.
But India's high inflation at 8.7 %, and lower interest rate at 3.3 % maintaining GDP at 6 % during global recession, depreciated Rupee at 47, facing rate hikes, credit tightening in global recession recovery next year, further inflate housing price bubble with Mumbai housing price doubled that of Shanghai. India banking, finance, and IT manufacturing industries may escaped current financial crisis but still facing inflationary pressure and housing bubble burst and associated financial and enterprises risks.
Strategic PGFCR
:
Proactive
Global
Housing, Credit,
Financial
Crisis,
Recession
Operations Simulation) Forecast, complete coverage of years, months, ahead
of lat 30 years and current global housing, equities, commodities , MBS,
ABS asset prices bubbles formation, boom and bust, early warning of
derivatives hedging resulted financial crisis, avoided betting on
the wrong side of investment resulted trillion dollar loss,
deep recession and its impact through global macro, financial,
industrial, trade economy integration and impact on daily capital
market asset price mechanisms
tracking
forecast month, years ahead last 30 years causes, onset, recovery,
early warning of global financial
crisis, recession through
Phase I monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on
Global Housing, Equities, Commodities, Bond, Derivatives Asset Prices Bubble Burst Mechanism and
Sub-prime on Daily Prices Dynamics , Subprime, mortgage, Credit
crisis, Financial, Systemic Risks impact on
Recession and
Phase II Global recession impact on banking, credit, financial
crisis and industrial sectors demand, prices slump and operating
loss
Phase III China/US global economic stimulus
impact on domestic business investment,
consumer demand, GDP, export and housing,
stock, commodities, metals market prices.,
recession recovery.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/09/recession-economy-cities-business-beltway-recovery-cities_slide_12.html?partner=yahoo
US best ,worst cities for recession recovery
Final
Phase Economic Stimulus Exit Strategy: the
what , why, how and timing of removing
excess liquidity, debt bubble prevent bubble
burst, and credit tightening and rate hikes
against double dip inflationary
recession
Maximize
Risks Adjusted Return for Indian banking, finance, manufacturing senior
executives by Proactive, Structural Strategic
Conducted
by Masterclass workshop lecturer:
:Dr. Warren
Huang (黃華南博士),
Pioneer of Proactive Structural
Global Financial Crisis Impact on
Multi-class Asset, Derivatives
and risks valuation Mechanism Operations
Simulations Analysis (OSA
Goal:
Provide
banking, finance, investment fund
managers and , energy, IT manufacturing executives the what, why, how and timing of China/India/Global fund, derivatives market
fundamental assets
price
mechanism,
allocation , risk early warning and strategic risk management, forecast years, months ahead of the emerging economic
recession, credit, financial market
trends
Day One: Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession 2007- 09,
causes, impact, early warning ,India/US/China rate cuts, economic
stimulus, bail out impact on banking finance
performance, recession recovery
Morning: Unit one: Proactive structural macro-financial decision models
predict Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession 2007- 09, causes,
impact, early warning
* Causes and Early Warning of Housing and stock prices
bubble burst: Proactive Structural dynamic OSA and co-integrations
of India /US, China central bank monetary , economic, fiscal policy
,series of rate hikes removing excessive liquidity due to stocks, housing
bubble wealth gain and
currency and housing industry
price bubble overheating control impact on housing, stock
prices bubbles burst,, fixed investment, inflation rate, un-employment rate.
resulted US housing price slump, subprime mortgage crisis, 2007, housing , stock
prices bubble burst, spread to US and global global financial crisis warned,
predicted by Dr. Warren Huang June International Financial risk management
conference, Beijing, and Sept. Wall Street Journal Market Beat Blog. 2007
* Impact Analysis Continued housing market slump due to housing bubble
burst will spread into broad mortgage and financial crisis and all other
manufacturing ( downstream of housing industries ) led to soaring unemployment,
plunging consumer, business demand and economic recession through 2009 ,
predicted by Dr. Huang on Wall Street Journal blog and Peking Univ. 2007
Afternoon: Unit Two Interest Rates, Money Supply, Liquidity, Bail out,
Economic Stimulus Impact on Housing, Banking, Capital market assets and
derivatives pricing and risks valuation mechanism, profits and stocks prices performance, and
recession recovery
* Interest rate, credit tightening, rate cuts, bail out economic
stimulus , economic recession impact on housing, equities asset prices
and derivatives (MBS, CMBS, ABS, CDO, CDS) prices bubble, and mortgage
default/foreclosure impact on recession
*Proactive structural Banking, Finance Risks
valuation mechanism:
Financial Systemic , Banking stress Risks Simulation :Top down asset price
and risk valuation integrating macro, financial economic into industrial asst
pricing , proactive structural interest rate, currency, commodities, asset
pricing and systemic risk valuation and Basel II Risks decision analysis
A. Credit risks valuation : Proactive structural credit default rating simulation
replacing conventional credit score, probability approach for credit risk early
warning management
B. Market risk valuation: Proactive structural market price valuation for VaR market maximum trading loss valuation risks simulation replacing conventional credit score, probability approach avoided underestimate the trillion dollar market loss due to betting on the wrong side of investment
C. Operational Risks : Proactive structural
operational risks decision analysis simulation replacing conventional
credit score, probability approach for credit and market risk , provide
reliable economic risk capital calculation. provide reliable tracking of all
financial statement asset price and profit loss, maximize transparency for
corporate governance
Day Two Housing, Banking Financial Crisis, Recession
2007- 09 and Economic Stimulus Impact on India/US/China
energy, IT manufacturing value chain optimization, risk control, recession recovery
Morning: Unit Three Proactive structural top down integrating
macro, financial economic impact on 2007- 09, and IT, energy manufacturing
supply value chain profits and risks control
* Supply -Value chain asset prices valuation mechanism
Proactive Structural dynamic OSA tracking, simulation global central banks
monetary, economic stimulus , fiscal policy impact on consumer, business
spending impact on India /US, China daily oil, energy, and IT up
stream/downstream supply chain prices mechanism for raw material cost and
product pricing hedging avoided billion dollar hedging raw materials
and products loss . Predicted 2000 IT asset bubble
burst on China Peoples Bank governor central bank policy conference, 1999
and current Housing price bubble, 2003 on Asian/China, Finance, Capital
Market Conference Singapore, Shanghai and on China Oil Marker Conference
that oil price soared from 50 to 80 in 2006,2007 and predicted again on March , Pudong, China Fund World 2008 that US rate cutes drag dollar to new low and oil
price from 75 to 147 in July and to China derivatives market conference..,
Pudong, Chiina, Mar. 2009 US /China stimulus led to stock market and recession
rebound from Mar. low, oil price rebound from 30 to 72.
Dr. Huang's over 30 years development, implementation of proactive structural
simulation of energy value, supply chain profit optimization and
risk control systems published on US Hydrocarbon Processing Information
Management Systems Advanced Control system Handbook 1991- 2005 applied for
US, Taiwan, China, Asian, European 80 countries 2000 multinational energy and IT
companies senior executives
Enterprises Risks Management:
Proactive structural decision simulators tracking all phases of supply
-value chain risks identification, monitoring, mitigation in project planning,
construction, operations and equipment preventive maintainence,
to maximize risk adjusted return without interruption
Afternoon: Unit four Risks Operation Simulation Analysis teams development,
implementing proactive structural country, industry, company specific
models and solution through integrating risks into core business unit in
daily operation and reporting. for banking, finance financial risks management
and manufacturing supply-value chain profit optimization
Multidisciplinary maximize risk adjusted return as goal, strategic ( CEO, VP )
and execution ( managerial level) risks operations simulation analysis teams ,
integrating into core finance, marketing, supply chain core business units
meeting daily, weekly, months identify, early warning, monitoring, and risk
management, mitigation reporting to VP, CEO .
Who Should Attend : Central
banks policy research, commercial, investment banking, real estate mortgage, mutual fund, hedge fund
, wealth management manager mortgage bond structural finance ABS, RMBS, CDO, CDS securitization
managers, insurance managers, oil, petrochemicals, IT downstream, housing
construction, commodities, metal, CEO, supply chain, investment managers, SWF fund managers, government
regulation strategic (top management) , execution teams
Workshop Costs/ Benefits : Lecture fee plus Dr. Warren Huang round trip air
fares from San Francisco, hotel, for full day workshop with unlimited attendees
Workshop recommendation will save trillions dollars in betting on the wrong
direction of investment and default
risks, loss, capitalize opportunities in economic slowdown, recession and asset
prices bubbles burst
Reserve by email wh3928@yahoo.com
indicating your favorite time, your office address, and lists of
executives names, title
A.